Try the model
UGA

Georgia 45 at Mississippi State 19

MSST
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Davis Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:01 · Stetson Bennett run for 1 yd to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior−33.1Home team on offense−4.2Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:29: Stetson Bennett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +3.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:13: Ladd McConkey run for 70 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +6.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:19: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 17 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +7.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:17: Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — MSST win probability +7.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:55: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +6.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 10 of 10UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 14:07MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:21MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:44UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 20, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:43MSST 4th & 1 at UGA 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.3%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:25MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:01UGA 4th & 1 at MSST 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−0.7
    81% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:57UGA 4th & 5 at MSST 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:01MSST 4th & 8 at UGA 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:51MSST 4th & 8 at UGA 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:03UGA 4th & 3 at UGA 27, up 11
    Close callPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:15MSST 4th & 14 at MSST 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:26MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 44, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:54MSST 4th & 1 at UGA 8, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.9
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−4.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:30UGA 4th & 3 at UGA 15, up 19
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:17MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 47, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:50UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:29UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:13UGA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:19UGA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:17MSST Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:55UGA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:04UGA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4411% → 12%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
11.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
11.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
11.7%
George Georgopoulos punt for 45 yds, downed at the Geo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:1788% → 88%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
11.7%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Geo 22Similar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+10
11.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 10 yds to the Geo 32Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+7
11.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 7 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
12.1%
Kenny McIntosh run for 3 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+15
12.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 15 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+30
12.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 30 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
12.4%
Kenny McIntosh run for 12 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.8%
Stetson Bennett run for no gain to the MisSt 1 Stetson Bennett fumbled, recovered by Geo Stetson BennettSimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
13.0%
Kenny McIntosh run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 2Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2013% → 13%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
12.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 14 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
13.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+5
13.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
13.5%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
13.4%
George Georgopoulos punt for 46 yds, downed at the Geo 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2787% → 86%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
13.4%
Daijun Edwards run for 4 yds to the Geo 15Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 6
OWN 15
0
13.5%
Stetson Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+5
13.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 5 yds to the Geo 20Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+8
14.0%
Brett Thorson punt for 45 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 8 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3514% → 15%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
14.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 6 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+1
14.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 3
50
+2
14.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q1 3:43
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
14.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3886% → 86%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
13.9%
Kenny McIntosh run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 47Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-13
14.2%
Stetson Bennett pass intercepted Collin Duncan return for 13 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2115% → 14%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
14.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
14.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
14.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
14.4%
George Georgopoulos punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 5:1886% → 85%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
14.2%
Stetson Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
14.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dillon Bell for 1 yd to the Geo 40Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+15
14.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 15 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-9
14.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 1 yd to the Geo 44 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Geo 46Similar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 19
OWN 46
+3
14.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Daijun Edwards for 3 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+26
14.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 11 yds to the MISSSTATE 40 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
14.4%
Kendall Milton run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
14.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 8 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
14.7%
Kenny McIntosh run for 1 yd to the MisSt 16Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+1
15.1%
Stetson Bennett run for 1 yd to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
14.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 5 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
14.9%
Daijun Edwards run for no gain to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
15.3%
Stetson Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
15.3%
Jack Podlesny 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9FG
19 plays · 62 yds · 6:4415% → 18%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
14.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+8
14.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 8 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
15.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
15.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
16.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds to the Geo 41Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-5
16.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Geo 46Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+12
16.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 12 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
16.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 7 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+1
16.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 1 yd to the Geo 26Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+8
16.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds to the Geo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
17.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Geo 17Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+12
17.2%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the Geo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
16.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the Geo 3Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 0
OPP 3
-5
16.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Geo 8Similar
Q2 5:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
18.1%
Massimo Biscardi 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2283% → 89%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
16.7%
Kenny McIntosh run for 9 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
16.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 4 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
16.0%
Stetson Bennett run for 5 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
16.0%
Stetson Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+15
15.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Daijun Edwards for 15 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+28
15.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 28 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
14.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 10 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
11.2%
Stetson Bennett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:0712% → 15%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+47
12.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 47 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
13.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
13.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 2 yds to the Geo 18Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
13.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
15.4%
Massimo Biscardi 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:3886% → 80%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
14.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 7 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
13.8%
Stetson Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
14.2%
Stetson Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+63
20.5%
Brett Thorson punt for 36 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 63 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4280% → 86%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.0%
Kenny McIntosh run for 5 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+70
13.9%
Ladd McConkey run for 70 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4515% → 14%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
14.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 13 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
15.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 13
OWN 35
-1
14.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
14.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
14.0%
George Georgopoulos punt for 33 yds, downed at the Geo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:4186% → 95%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
13.7%
Kenny McIntosh run for 2 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
13.7%
Stetson Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+30
14.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 30 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
12.7%
Stetson Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
12.7%
Kenny McIntosh run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+14
12.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
12.2%
Kenny McIntosh run for 3 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
5.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 17 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:409% → 9%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
8.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
8.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+9
8.3%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
8.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
8.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
8.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
8.5%
George Georgopoulos punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ladd McConkey at the Geo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:0695% → 95%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.9%
Stetson Bennett run for no gain to the Geo 25Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
4.9%
Branson Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 24Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
4.9%
Stetson Bennett pass intercepted Tyrus Wheat return for no gain to the Geo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:2410% → 17%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
9.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 16 yds to the Geo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
17.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1487% → 97%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.8%
Stetson Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
12.7%
Kenny McIntosh run for 8 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
12.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 12 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
11.2%
Stetson Bennett run for 4 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+16
10.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 16 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
10.1%
Daijun Edwards run for 6 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+28
10.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 28 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
9.8%
Kenny McIntosh run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 2Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
9.2%
Daijun Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 4Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
9.0%
Stetson Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 0
OPP 4
+2
9.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Emmanuel Forbes) to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
8.7%
Kenny McIntosh run for no gain to the MisSt 2Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 67 yds · 4:576% → 5%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
5.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
5.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Jalen Carter for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 18Similar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+15
4.7%
GEORGIA Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
4.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 24 yds to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
4.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 7 yds to the Geo 36Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
5.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+8
5.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the Geo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
4.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Geo 24Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+7
4.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 7 yds to the Geo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
4.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
4.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the Geo 8Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
4.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 1
OPP 8
0
4.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the Geo 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1598% → 98%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
2.1%
Kendall Milton run for 3 yds to the Geo 11Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
2.1%
Kendall Milton run for 3 yds to the Geo 14Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+1
2.1%
Daijun Edwards run for 1 yd to the Geo 15Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
2.0%
Brett Thorson punt for 62 yds, downed at the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:034% → 2%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
3.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+15
3.6%
GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
3.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
3.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+3
2.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
2.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 24TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:5699% → 100%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
1.2%
Daijun Edwards run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+3
1.2%
Branson Robinson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+7
1.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 7 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
1.0%
Kendall Milton run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+34
0.2%
Kendall Milton run for 34 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25END OF GAME
8 plays · 73 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
0.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+5
0.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.1%
Simeon Price run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+36
0.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 36 yds to the Geo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+13
0.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the Geo 14 for a 1ST down lat. to Austin Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 14 for a 1ST down lat. to Simeon Price for 13 yds to the Geo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:17
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q3 9:19
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 17 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q3 14:13
Ladd McConkey run for 70 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com