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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreMIZ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:47 · Rodrigo Blankenship 43 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 7:51: Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Kearis Jackson — UGA win probability +2.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 6:06: Rodrigo Blankenship 48 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +2.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:32: Timeout GEORGIA, clock 00:32 — UGA win probability +1.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:56: Rodrigo Blankenship 29 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +1.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:02: Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 18 yds for a TD (Jake Fromm pass to James Cook for Two-Point Conversion) — UGA win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 13:30MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 33, tiedClose callPunted · 11.9% before the snapGo for it11.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:24MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snapGo for it12.2%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%average punt
- Q1 6:13UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 48, up 7Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snapGo for it87.5%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:56MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snapGo for it12.5%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.5%average punt
- Q2 14:05UGA 4th & 2 at MIZ 3, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snapGo for it86.4%49% to convertField goalTheir call86.0%−0.493% to makePunt84.1%−2.3average punt
- Q2 12:34MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 45, down 10Close callPunted · 13.4% before the snapGo for it13.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.0%−0.6average punt
- Q2 10:07UGA 4th & 14 at UGA 19, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snapGo for it84.7%−1.017% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.7%average punt
- Q2 6:06UGA 4th & 23 at MIZ 31, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snapGo for it84.3%−1.27% to convertField goalTheir call85.5%54% to makePunt84.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 4:11MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 24, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snapGo for it9.9%−0.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.6%average punt
- Q2 2:31UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 40, up 13Close callPunted · 89.9% before the snapGo for it89.5%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:36MIZ 4th & 12 at MIZ 21, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it9.0%−1.022% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.1%average punt
- Q2 0:00UGA 4th & 10 at MIZ 30, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snapGo for it89.5%−0.429% to convertField goalTheir call89.9%56% to makePunt89.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 12:47UGA 4th & 8 at MIZ 26, up 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snapGo for it91.2%−0.433% to convertField goalTheir call91.6%64% to makePunt88.6%−3.0average punt
- Q3 10:36MIZ 4th & 16 at MIZ 20, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it7.6%−0.814% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q3 6:56UGA 4th & 2 at MIZ 11, up 16Close callKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snapGo for it94.0%56% to convertField goalTheir call93.4%−0.787% to makePunt89.3%−4.7average punt
- Q3 4:39MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 41, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q4 13:00MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 20, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:43UGA 4th & 16 at UGA 27, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 4:38MIZ 4th & 4 at UGA 4, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−0.240% to convertField goal0.4%93% to makePunt-0.1%−0.5average punt
- Q4 0:22UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 25, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 10:43UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.8%97% to makeGo for two87.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:02UGA Touchdown, up 25 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick99.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call99.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIZDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:159% → 9%
UGADrive 2TD6 plays · 60 yds · 2:3791% → 91%
MIZDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:069% → 10%
UGADrive 4PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:5791% → 90%
Q1 6:13
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
90.0%
Jake Camarda punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5610% → 10%
Q1 4:56
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
90.0%
Tucker McCann punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Dominick Blaylock at the Geo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6FG14 plays · 68 yds · 5:4190% → 89%
Q1 1:50
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+16
89.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 16 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+4
89.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 4 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+10
89.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, Roughing Passer (10 Yards) to the Misso 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
89.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 6 yds to the Misso 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 1:2111% → 11%
UGADrive 8PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:5789% → 89%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-9
89.2%
Jake Fromm sacked by Nick Bolton for a loss of 9 yards to the Geo 14Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 19
OWN 14
+5
89.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 5 yds to the Geo 19Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 14
OWN 19
0
88.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for no gain to the Geo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9INT7 plays · 30 yds · 1:5911% → 12%
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
88.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 7 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+10
88.6%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 10 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+10
88.5%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Kam Scott for 10 yds to the Geo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+71
88.0%
Taylor Powell pass intercepted Richard LeCounte return for 71 yds to the Misso 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10FG5 plays · -13 yds · 1:4590% → 92%
Q2 6:33
3RD & 27
OPP 35
+4
89.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 4 yds to the Misso 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 1:479% → 8%
UGADrive 12PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2992% → 92%
Q2 2:31
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
92.0%
Jake Camarda punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 9 yds · 1:229% → 9%
Q2 1:48
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-5
91.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Albert Okwuegbunam) to the Misso 10Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+8
91.3%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 8 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+5
91.4%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-9
91.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 27 MISSOURI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kam Scott) to the Misso 14Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 11
OWN 22
-1
91.5%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tyler Badie for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
91.1%
Tucker McCann punt for 42 yds , Dominick Blaylock returns for no gain to the Geo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14END OF HALF7 plays · 33 yds · 0:3291% → 93%
Q2 0:25
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+30
92.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 30 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15MISSED FG6 plays · 49 yds · 2:0293% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 2:018% → 7%
UGADrive 17FG7 plays · 36 yds · 3:2794% → 97%
MIZDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 1:405% → 4%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
95.5%
Taylor Powell sacked by Nolan Smith and Monty Rice for a loss of 9 yards to the Misso 16Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+20
95.7%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 20 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
95.6%
Tucker McCann punt for 45 yds , Dominick Blaylock returns for no gain to the Geo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD12 plays · 86 yds · 5:2997% → 100%
Q3 3:12
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+11
97.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 11 yds to the Geo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+13
97.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 13 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
98.2%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 18 yds for a TD (Jake Fromm pass to James Cook for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:320% → 0%
UGADrive 21PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22DOWNS18 plays · 76 yds · 6:530% → 0%
Q4 10:23
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 6 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
99.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 15 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 7
50
+10
99.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 10 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
99.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 6 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+6
99.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 6 yds to the Geo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+12
99.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 12 yds to the Geo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 3:58100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 6:06
Rodrigo Blankenship 48 yd FG GOOD
+2.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 7:51
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Kearis Jackson
+2.1
FG · Q3 6:56
Rodrigo Blankenship 29 yd FG GOOD
+1.9