2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreMUR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:00 · Jake Camarda punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Rodney Castille at the MurrS 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:36: Preston Rice pass complete to Daquon Green for 60 yds for a TD, (Gabriel Vicente KICK) — MUR win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MUR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:24: Brian Herrien run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q2 13:51: Preston Rice pass complete to Jared McCray for a loss of 12 yards for a TD Jared McCray fumbled, recovered by Geo J.R. Reed , return for 14 yds, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MUR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:07: D'Andre Swift run for 10 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:11: Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 15 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 10:47MUR 4th & 14 at MUR 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 8:02UGA 4th & 17 at UGA 33, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q1 2:02MUR 4th & 15 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 11:25MUR 4th & 29 at MUR 1, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.35% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q2 6:57MUR 4th & 5 at MUR 30, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 3:45MUR 4th & 4 at MUR 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 0:00MUR 4th & 5 at UGA 28, down 35Close callKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%41% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%−<0.160% to makePunt-0.1%−0.3average punt
- Q3 11:54MUR 4th & 11 at UGA 49, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 1:18MUR 4th & 5 at UGA 9, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%89% to makePunt-0.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 9:09MUR 4th & 2 at MUR 33, down 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:22MUR 4th & 2 at MUR 33, down 46Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:00UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 41, up 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MUR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:37UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:36MUR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%97% to makeGo for two1.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:24UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:07UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:11UGA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:11UGA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:33MUR Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:22UGA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:49UGA Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:42UGA Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1TD6 plays · 56 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+19
99.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to James Cook for 19 yds to the MurrS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
99.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 9 yds to the MurrS 28Similar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
99.7%
Fromm, Jake pass incomplete to Landers, Matt, PENALTY MURRAYST pass interference (Turner, Quinaz) 15 yards to the MURRAYST3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 2:440% → 0%
Q1 12:46
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
99.7%
Preston Rice pass complete to Daquon Green for 13 yds to the MurrS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-12
99.7%
Preston Rice sacked by Azeez Ojulari and Jermaine Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the MurrS 30Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 19
OWN 30
+5
99.6%
Preston Rice pass complete to Sylvaughn Turner for 5 yds to the MurrS 35Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+7
99.6%
Steve Dawson punt for 50 yds , Tyler Simmons returns for 7 yds to the Geo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
MURDrive 4TD3 plays · 72 yds · 1:141% → 1%
UGADrive 5FUMBLE5 plays · 30 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
Q1 5:41
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-3
99.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Demetris Robertson for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 41Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+19
99.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Eli Wolf for 19 yds to the MurrS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
99.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Eli Wolf for 8 yds Eli Wolf fumbled, forced by Kameron Petty, recovered by MurrS Nigel Walton , return for 8 yds to the MurrS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 2:201% → 1%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.3%
Preston Rice pass complete to Armani Hayes for 15 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-5
99.1%
Preston Rice sacked by Nolan Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 15
50
+16
99.1%
Steve Dawson punt for 44 yds , Tyler Simmons returns for 16 yds to the Geo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7TD8 plays · 78 yds · 2:2899% → 99%
MURDrive 8FUMBLE TD3 plays · -11 yds · 0:191% → 1%
Q2 13:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
99.3%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jared McCray for a loss of 12 yards for a TD Jared McCray fumbled, recovered by Geo J.R. Reed , return for 14 yds, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 9PUNT9 plays · -6 yds · 2:041% → 1%
Q2 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+5
99.3%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jacob Bell for 5 yds to the MurrS 12Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+8
99.3%
Preston Rice pass complete to Sylvaughn Turner for 8 yds to the MurrS 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-6
99.2%
Preston Rice sacked by Walter Grant for a loss of 6 yards to the MurrS 15Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 15
OWN 1
-14
99.2%
Preston Rice sacked by Adam Anderson for a loss of 14 yards to the MurrS 1 MURRAY ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the MurrS 1Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 29
OWN 1
+11
99.2%
Steve Dawson punt for 51 yds , Dominick Blaylock returns for 11 yds to the MurrS 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10TD5 plays · 41 yds · 2:0899% → 100%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+10
99.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 10 yds to the MurrS 36Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+24
99.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Eli Wolf for 24 yds to the MurrS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.6%
D'Andre Swift run for 10 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:031% → 1%
Q2 7:33
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+8
99.5%
Preston Rice pass complete to Rodney Castille for 8 yds to the MurrS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12TD3 plays · 80 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+43
99.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 43 yds to the MurrS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
99.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Eli Wolf for 22 yds to the MurrS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 15 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 2:000% → 0%
UGADrive 14TD4 plays · 36 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
99.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to John FitzPatrick for 22 yds to the MurrS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 15DOWNS9 plays · 47 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to Rajai Perkins for 5 yds to the MurrS 30Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 4
OPP 27
-7
99.8%
Preston Rice sacked by Nolan Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the Geo 34Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+6
99.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to Daquon Green for 6 yds to the Geo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:560% → 0%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
99.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to Armani Hayes for 9 yds to the MurrS 39Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+13
99.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to Daquon Green for 13 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-1
99.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to Justin Connor for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 49Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Steve Dawson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyler Simmons at the Geo 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17INT TD5 plays · 16 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
UGADrive 18TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:58100% → 100%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to James Cook for 8 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+12
99.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Matt Landers for 12 yds to the MurrS 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 15 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 19FG11 plays · 66 yds · 3:550% → 0%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to D'Andre McMillian for 7 yds to the MurrS 32Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+50
99.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jacob Bell for 50 yds to the Geo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
99.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to Cory Thomas for 4 yds to the Geo 10Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
99.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to Brion Sanchious for 1 yd to the Geo 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:08100% → 100%
Q4 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
99.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 12 yds to the MurrS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+11
99.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 11 yds to the MurrS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-5
99.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to George Pickens for 10 yds to the MurrS 15 GEORGIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (George Pickens) to the MurrS 30Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+25
100.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 25 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 22DOWNS5 plays · 5 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 9:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
100.0%
Brendan Bognar pass complete to Brion Sanchious for 6 yds to the MurrS 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23TD3 plays · 30 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
Q4 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Stetson Bennett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Michael Hiers pass complete to D'Andre McMillian for 4 yds to the MurrS 29Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-9
100.0%
Michael Hiers sacked by Channing Tindall for a loss of 9 yards to the MurrS 20Similar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Steve Dawson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dominick Blaylock at the Geo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
MURDrive 26INT6 plays · 41 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 1:15
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+21
100.0%
Brendan Bognar pass complete to Tyre Gray for 21 yds to the MurrS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
100.0%
Brendan Bognar pass complete to Tyre Gray for 14 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Brendan Bognar pass intercepted Latavious Brini return for no gain to the Geo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 27END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:07
D'Andre Swift run for 10 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q2 14:24
Brian Herrien run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+0.2
FUMBLE · Q2 13:51
Preston Rice pass complete to Jared McCray for a loss of 12 yards for a TD Jared McCray fumbled, recovered by Geo J.R. Reed , return for 14 yds, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+0.2