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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreARK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Malik Hornsby pass complete to John David White for 19 yds to the Geo 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:46: Zamir White run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:34: Kendall Milton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +1.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- PUNT · Q1 2:17: Reid Bauer punt blocked by Dan Jackson. recovered by Zamir White for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +2.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:12: Zamir White run for 1 yd to the Geo 13 — UGA win probability +0.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:05: Jack Podlesny 30 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 9:20ARK 4th & 24 at ARK 3, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it14.0%−0.35% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.3%average punt
- Q1 6:16UGA 4th & 1 at ARK 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.5%71% to convertField goal85.1%−0.345% to makePunt85.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:17ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 8, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it12.3%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.7%average punt
- Q2 12:17ARK 4th & 5 at UGA 20, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.7%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call7.8%75% to makePunt5.7%−2.1average punt
- Q2 7:38UGA 4th & 5 at ARK 29, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snapGo for it93.7%41% to convertField goalTheir call93.6%−0.158% to makePunt91.6%−2.0average punt
- Q2 5:21ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 25, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.0%−0.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q2 3:35UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 32, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.7%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.1%average punt
- Q2 2:17ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 43, down 24Close callPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%−0.4average punt
- Q3 14:32ARK 4th & 20 at ARK 15, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.69% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q3 10:05UGA 4th & 6 at ARK 13, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call96.5%85% to makePunt94.5%−2.0average punt
- Q3 8:13ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 28, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q3 6:10UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 28, up 27Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 3:02ARK 4th & 14 at UGA 44, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.319% to convertField goal0.2%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 10:26ARK 4th & 13 at ARK 22, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:38UGA 4th & 1 at ARK 38, up 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goal99.7%−0.238% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:46UGA 4th & 7 at ARK 20, up 34Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%75% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 10:46UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.5%97% to makeGo for two85.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:34UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.9%97% to makeGo for two86.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:12UGA Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0990% → 89%
Q1 14:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
89.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+14
89.2%
Bennett, Stetson pass incomplete to Mitchell, Adonai, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Brown, Montaric) 14 yards to the ARKANSAS25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+6
88.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 6 yds to the Ark 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT7 plays · -14 yds · 1:2311% → 11%
UGADrive 3TD11 plays · 56 yds · 4:4289% → 91%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+27
88.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 27 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 0
OPP 5
+3
89.1%
McIntosh, Kenny rush for 3 yards to the ARKANSAS2, PENALTY ARKANSAS 12 men on the field 3 yards to the ARKANSAS2, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT TD6 plays · 1 yds · 2:0910% → 7%
Q1 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 8
-4
90.3%
Jefferson, KJ pass complete to Morris, Tyson for 6 yards to the ARKANSAS14, PENALTY ARKANSAS ineligible downfield on pass 4 yards to the ARKANSAS4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+5
90.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 5 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 9
OWN 8
0
93.1%
Reid Bauer punt blocked by Dan Jackson. recovered by Zamir White for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5MISSED FG13 plays · 55 yds · 4:557% → 6%
Q1 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
93.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 22 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
92.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the GEORGIA 39 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Warren Thompson) to the Geo 49Similar
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
93.1%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the Geo 40 Dominique Johnson fumbled, recovered by Ark Dominique JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
93.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 2 yds to the Geo 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6FG11 plays · 51 yds · 4:3594% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 2:125% → 5%
Q2 7:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
95.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 6 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
95.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-2
95.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 45 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4396% → 96%
Q2 4:24
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+5
96.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 5 yds to the Geo 32Similar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+10
96.0%
Jake Camarda punt for 47 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 10 yds to the Ark 31 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Ark 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:135% → 4%
UGADrive 10END OF HALF9 plays · 19 yds · 1:3496% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT7 plays · -10 yds · 0:284% → 4%
Q3 14:46
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-5
96.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Ricky Stromberg) to the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12FG10 plays · 33 yds · 4:2297% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:481% → 1%
Q3 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.4%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Devonte Wyatt and Nakobe Dean for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 19Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+9
99.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 9 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 53 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for no gain to the Geo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
ARKDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q3 5:22
2ND & 7
50
+10
99.6%
Jefferson, KJ pass incomplete, PENALTY GEORGIA holding (Smith, Christopher) 10 yards to the GEORGIA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
99.6%
Jefferson, KJ pass incomplete to Burks, Treylon, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Burks, Treylon) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 23
OWN 47
-9
99.7%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Nakobe Dean for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 32
OWN 38
+18
99.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 18 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Reid Bauer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16TD13 plays · 93 yds · 5:46100% → 100%
Q3 1:41
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+15
99.8%
Bennett, Stetson pass incomplete to Burton, Jermaine, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Brown, Montaric) 15 yards to the GEORGIA28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+7
99.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 7 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+10
99.8%
Bennett, Stetson pass incomplete, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding 10 yards to the ARKANSAS48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Treylon Burks for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
99.9%
Malik Hornsby sacked by Adam Anderson for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 22Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Reid Bauer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18FG10 plays · 42 yds · 6:37100% → 100%
Q4 4:30
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+6
99.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 6 yds to the Ark 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19END OF GAME9 plays · 60 yds · 3:400% → 0%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
100.0%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to John David White for 19 yds to the Geo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q1 2:17
Reid Bauer punt blocked by Dan Jackson. recovered by Zamir White for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+2.6
FG · Q3 10:05
Jack Podlesny 30 yd FG GOOD
+2.1
TD · Q1 4:34
Kendall Milton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+1.7