2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:37 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:33: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 11 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:03: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 77 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:40: Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Adonai Mitchell — UGA win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:55: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 9 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:45: Kenny McIntosh run for 59 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UGA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 12:40GT 4th & 4 at GT 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.7%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q1 10:34UGA 4th & 4 at GT 19, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call96.9%−<0.177% to makePunt96.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 8:55GT 4th & 5 at GT 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q1 2:05GT 4th & 14 at GT 32, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q2 11:22GT 4th & 6 at GT 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.8%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q2 3:09GT 4th & 15 at UGA 36, down 24Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.3%−0.217% to convertField goal3.4%42% to makePuntTheir call3.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:33UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 26, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.5%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.6%average punt
- Q2 0:45GT 4th & 4 at GT 48, down 24Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 5:18GT 4th & 14 at UGA 33, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.119% to convertField goal0.7%49% to makePunt0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:40GT 4th & 9 at UGA 39, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%32% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.136% to makePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:22GT 4th & 6 at GT 41, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 4:38UGA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.0%97% to makeGo for two96.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:33UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:03UGA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:55UGA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:45UGA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:23UGA Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:092% → 2%
UGADrive 2FG5 plays · 17 yds · 1:5998% → 98%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
1.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 11 yds to the GTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:362% → 2%
UGADrive 4TD8 plays · 80 yds · 4:0998% → 97%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
2.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 16 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
2.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 9 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
2.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 14 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+25
2.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 25 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 2:273% → 3%
UGADrive 6TD7 plays · 87 yds · 3:2897% → 98%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+30
3.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 30 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
3.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Zamir White for 15 yds to the GTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
3.4%
Stetson Bennett sacked by Jordan Domineck and Mike Lockhart for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 29Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+18
3.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 18 yds to the GTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
2.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 11 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:043% → 3%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
2.8%
Jordan Yates sacked by Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean for a loss of 13 yards to the GTech 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD2 plays · 77 yds · 0:1397% → 98%
GTDrive 9PUNT14 plays · 39 yds · 7:482% → 3%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
2.7%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Jordan Mason for 12 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3198% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:443% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3998% → 98%
UGADrive 13TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5998% → 99%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to George Pickens for 5 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
1.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 8 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
1.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 7 yds to the GTech 39Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+15
1.6%
Bennett, Stetson pass incomplete to Mitchell, Adonai, PENALTY GATECH pass interference (Oliver, Tobias) 15 yards to the GATECH24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q3 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 9 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14DOWNS10 plays · 42 yds · 4:321% → 0%
Q3 8:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+40
0.8%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Dylan Leonard for 40 yds to the Geo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15TD3 plays · 67 yds · 1:2899% → 100%
GTDrive 16DOWNS10 plays · 26 yds · 5:590% → 0%
UGADrive 17TD6 plays · 51 yds · 3:13100% → 100%
Q4 10:33
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+17
0.2%
Daijun Edwards run for 9 yds to the GTech 15 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (Noah Collins) to the GTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 4:560% → 0%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.1%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Nate McCollum for 9 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
0.1%
Mason, Jordan rush for 1 yard to the GATECH38, PENALTY GATECH holding (Williams, Jordan) 10 yards to the GATECH27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+1
0.1%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Nate McCollum for 1 yd to the GTech 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19END OF GAME6 plays · 21 yds · 3:41100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:40
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Adonai Mitchell
-1.2
TD · Q2 13:33
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 11 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-1.1
TD · Q2 11:03
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 77 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-0.8