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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:06 · Jack Podlesny 46 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- SACK · Q2 4:45: Anthony Richardson sacked by Jalen Carter for a loss of 11 yards to the Geo 42 — FLA win probability +2.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q2 2:16: James Cook run for 11 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +8.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:35: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 36 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +8.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:07: Anthony Richardson pass intercepted for a TD Nakobe Dean return for 50 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +4.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:49: Emory Jones run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK) — FLA win probability +2.0 pts (now 2%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 9UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 11:06UGA 4th & 10 at FLA 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.9% before the snapGo for it78.8%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call78.9%60% to makePunt78.5%−0.3average punt
- Q1 9:27FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snapGo for it21.9%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.0%average punt
- Q1 6:13UGA 4th & 13 at FLA 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.1%−0.221% to convertField goal76.1%−0.323% to makePuntTheir call76.3%average punt
- Q1 4:16FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 45, tiedClose callPunted · 24.9% before the snapGo for it25.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:56UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snapGo for it74.0%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.2%average punt
- Q1 0:00FLA 4th & 7 at UGA 33, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snapGo for it27.7%37% to convertField goalTheir call27.6%−<0.149% to makePunt27.4%−0.3average punt
- Q2 8:38UGA 4th & 4 at FLA 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snapGo for it71.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call70.6%−0.393% to makePunt67.1%−3.9average punt
- Q2 5:30FLA 4th & 2 at UGA 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.5%57% to convertField goal27.6%−1.934% to makePunt27.6%−2.0average punt
- Q2 3:39FLA 4th & 13 at UGA 34, down 3Close callWent for it · 28.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.7%−0.821% to convertField goal28.5%47% to makePunt27.5%−1.0average punt
- Q3 13:07FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 32, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it9.2%−0.352% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%average punt
- Q3 6:27FLA 4th & 5 at UGA 6, down 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.1% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call4.9%91% to makePunt0.0%−4.8average punt
- Q3 1:15UGA 4th & 6 at FLA 25, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.3%39% to convertField goalTheir call97.3%−<0.166% to makePunt96.6%−0.7average punt
- Q4 10:46FLA 4th & 7 at UGA 25, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.236% to convertField goal0.7%66% to makePunt-0.3%−1.1average punt
- Q4 0:34FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 32, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q2 2:16UGA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.7%97% to makeGo for two78.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:35UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.4%97% to makeGo for two85.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:07UGA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.0%97% to makeGo for two90.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:49FLA Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%97% to makeGo for two1.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:57UGA Touchdown, up 26 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1MISSED FG9 plays · 36 yds · 3:2486% → 84%
Q1 13:20
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+9
14.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 9 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
14.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 11 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
15.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 7 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-9
15.5%
Stetson Bennett sacked by TEAM for a loss of 9 yards to the Fla 28 GEORGIA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Stetson Bennett) to the Fla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2816% → 17%
UGADrive 3PUNT10 plays · 21 yds · 3:0283% → 82%
FLADrive 4PUNT5 plays · 25 yds · 1:2919% → 20%
UGADrive 5PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0481% → 79%
FLADrive 6MISSED FG8 plays · 35 yds · 2:4021% → 22%
UGADrive 7FG13 plays · 63 yds · 6:1779% → 77%
Q2 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+12
21.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 12 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-10
21.4%
GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sedrick Van Pran) to the Geo 38Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+10
22.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kaiir Elam) to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8DOWNS13 plays · 41 yds · 4:5124% → 25%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
23.5%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 16 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
24.5%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 7 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-11
28.1%
Anthony Richardson sacked by Jalen Carter for a loss of 11 yards to the Geo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9INT2 plays · 32 yds · 0:1876% → 77%
FLADrive 10FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2325% → 25%
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+8
25.4%
Anthony Richardson run for 8 yds to the Fla 11 Anthony Richardson fumbled, forced by Nolan Smith, recovered by Geo Nolan Smith , return for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11TD1 play · 11 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12INT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:3318% → 17%
Q2 1:43
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
17.1%
Anthony Richardson pass intercepted Nolan Smith return for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD1 play · 36 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
8.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 36 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14INT TD10 plays · 22 yds · 1:2812% → 8%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.2%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 3 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
12.2%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Malik Davis for 6 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
12.6%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Malik Davis for 7 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
12.9%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 4 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
12.8%
Anthony Richardson sacked by Adam Anderson and Warren Brinson for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 47Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-50
7.7%
Anthony Richardson pass intercepted for a TD Nakobe Dean return for 50 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:007% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:438% → 7%
UGADrive 17FUMBLE5 plays · 19 yds · 2:4895% → 96%
Q3 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
4.0%
Kenny McIntosh run for 2 yds to the Geo 49 Kenny McIntosh fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Moon, recovered by Fla Rashad Torrence IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18MISSED FG9 plays · 43 yds · 3:285% → 5%
Q3 7:45
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+9
4.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 9 yds to the Geo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19FG10 plays · 55 yds · 5:0597% → 98%
FLADrive 20DOWNS13 plays · 50 yds · 5:192% → 1%
UGADrive 21INT6 plays · 26 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
0.3%
Stetson Bennett pass intercepted Rashad Torrence II return for 3 yds to the Fla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22TD12 plays · 89 yds · 4:310% → 2%
Q4 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+18
0.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 18 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
0.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 8 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+16
0.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 16 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
0.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 11 yds to the Geo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-9
0.3%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd to the Geo 25 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Geo 35Similar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 14
OPP 30
+15
0.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Ja'Markis Weston for 15 yds to the Geo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
0.2%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Lewis Cine) to the Geo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23TD3 plays · 46 yds · 0:1899% → 100%
FLADrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER6 plays · 17 yds · 1:200% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:16
James Cook run for 11 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q2 1:35
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 36 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q2 0:07
Anthony Richardson pass intercepted for a TD Nakobe Dean return for 50 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-4.4