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MSST

Mississippi State 3 at Georgia 31

UGA
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:48 · Cameron Nizialek punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Home team on offense+19.3Score differential+9.7Pregame prior+4.3Garbage-time factor+9.2Blowout margin−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:16: Nick Chubb 7 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +4.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 10:39: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 3 yds to the MisSt 41 — MSST win probability +3.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:24: Nick Chubb 28 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +10.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 12:24: Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26 — MSST win probability +3.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:48: Isaac Nauta 41 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +5.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:47MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:14MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:10MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:04UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:34MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:46MSST 4th & 4 at UGA 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:43UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:55MSST 4th & 1 at UGA 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−2.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:14MSST 4th & 4 at UGA 9, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−4.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:28MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:48UGA 4th & 8 at UGA 19, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:52UGA 4th & 11 at MSST 31, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:45MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:32UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 24, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:20MSST 4th & 11 at UGA 11, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:00UGA 4th & 1 at MSST 49, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:37UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:16UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:24UGA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:48UGA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:1339% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
60.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-5
60.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Stewart Reese) to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+2
60.9%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+6
61.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 6 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
61.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mecole Hardman at the Geo 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD
1 play · 59 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
61.9%
Terry Godwin 59 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:2338% → 38%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
61.9%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
62.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
62.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
62.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
62.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
62.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:5863% → 69%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
62.7%
D'Andre Swift run for 12 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
63.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
50
+16
63.7%
Nick Chubb run for 16 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
63.8%
D'Andre Swift run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+3
64.2%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+21
64.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 21 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
64.5%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the MisSt 7Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
68.5%
Nick Chubb 7 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0633% → 32%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.0%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
67.1%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
67.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
67.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 3:0669% → 70%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
68.7%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 18Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+18
68.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 18 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
69.6%
Brian Herrien run for 3 yds to the Geo 39Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
70.2%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
70.3%
Jake Fromm run for no gain to the Geo 44Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
70.3%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:3031% → 30%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
69.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+7
69.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 7 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+6
69.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
69.5%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+21
70.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 21 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
69.2%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+1
68.7%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
69.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
70.2%
Logan Cooke punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:5572% → 75%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
71.7%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 20Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+6
71.9%
D'Andre Swift run for 6 yds to the Geo 26Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+8
72.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jackson Harris for 8 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
73.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 27 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-7
74.6%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the MisSt 36 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaiah Wynn) to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 17
OPP 46
+8
74.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 8 yds D'Andre Swift fumbled, forced by Dezmond Harris, recovered by MisSt Jamal PetersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5329% → 25%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
71.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
71.4%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+4
71.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
71.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 9
50
0
74.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 9
50
+5
75.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 5 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
75.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0376% → 75%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
75.5%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Geo 11Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
75.9%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 13Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+3
75.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Sony Michel for 3 yds to the Geo 16Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
75.3%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 4:2924% → 25%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
76.3%
Keith Mixon run for 11 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
75.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
75.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
76.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Geo 40Similar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+1
76.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
76.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 12 yds to the Geo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
75.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 9 yds to the Geo 18Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+3
75.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Geo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
76.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
76.3%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Geo 10Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+1
76.8%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Geo 9Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
75.3%
Jace Christmann 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0877% → 78%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.2%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Wynn) to the Geo 20Similar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
77.2%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Geo 22Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
77.7%
Sony Michel run for 8 yds to the Geo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3677% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.1%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
77.4%
Fromm, Jake pass incomplete to Wims, Javon, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Cleveland, Tolando) 15 yards to the GEORGIA44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
78.6%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Sony MichelSimilar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+20
78.5%
D'Andre Swift run for 20 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
79.3%
Brian Herrien run for 7 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+1
79.5%
Brian Herrien run for 1 yd to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+28
90.0%
Nick Chubb 28 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5614% → 13%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.2%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
86.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 2 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
87.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 3 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
87.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Mecole Hardman at the Geo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4091% → 91%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
90.8%
Brian Herrien run for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 12Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 15
OWN 12
0
90.3%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Javon WimsSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+7
90.2%
Sony Michel run for 7 yds to the Geo 19Similar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
91.0%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:3011% → 10%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
89.1%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+10
89.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 10 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
89.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+22
89.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Deandre Baker return for 22 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 1:3093% → 98%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
50
+2
92.9%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
93.2%
Sony Michel run for 7 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+41
98.2%
Isaac Nauta 41 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:223% → 3%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+25
97.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Dominick Sanders return for 15 yds to the MisSt 31GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Block (Julian Rochester) to the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19FG
10 plays · 10 yds · 4:3498% → 100%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
98.4%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+6
98.7%
Nick Chubb run for 6 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
98.7%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
99.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kendall Baker) to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+4
99.0%
D'Andre Swift run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 16
OPP 36
0
99.1%
Brian Herrien run for no gain to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 16
OPP 36
+5
99.1%
Fromm, Jake pass complete to Godwin, Terry for 10 yards to the MISSSTATE26, PENALTY MISSSTATE offside (Sweat, Montez) 5 yards to the MISSSTATE31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
99.2%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+49
99.8%
Rodrigo Blankenship 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.7%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
99.8%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-3
99.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 54 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.8%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 17Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+3
99.8%
Brian Herrien run for 3 yds to the Geo 20Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+4
99.8%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Geo 24Similar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:010% → 0%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
99.8%
Nick Gibson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+5
99.8%
Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 4 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+39
99.9%
Nick Gibson run for 39 yds to the Geo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
99.8%
Nick Gibson run for 2 yds to the Geo 21Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-1
99.9%
Nick Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 22Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+14
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 14 yds to the Geo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
99.9%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Todd, Reginald, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Rankin, Martinas) 10 yards to the GEORGIA18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+7
99.9%
Dontavian Lee run for 7 yds to the Geo 11Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q4 8:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q4 8:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 5:20100% → 100%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
99.9%
D'Andre Swift run for 7 yds to the Geo 18Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+8
99.9%
D'Andre Swift run for 8 yds to the Geo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.9%
Brian Herrien run for 7 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+9
99.9%
D'Andre Swift run for 9 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.9%
D'Andre Swift run for 4 yds to the Geo 46Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Brian Herrien run for 3 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Brian Herrien run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-3
99.9%
D'Andre Swift run for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the Geo 46Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+13
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 13 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+9
100.0%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the Geo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+20
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 20 yds to the Geo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Geo 1Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:24
Nick Chubb 28 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)
+10.5
TD · Q3 5:48
Isaac Nauta 41 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)
+5.1
TD · Q1 6:16
Nick Chubb 7 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com