2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadTNTC aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreTNTC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:38 · Brett Thorson punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jordan Yates at the TNTC 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:11: Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 10 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:54: Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 50 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TNTC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 12:49TNTC 4th & 4 at TNTC 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q1 10:31TNTC 4th & 9 at TNTC 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q1 4:33TNTC 4th & 1 at TNTC 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:52TNTC 4th & 18 at TNTC 40, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q2 11:45UGA 4th & 8 at TNTC 9, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%89% to makePunt98.7%−0.5average punt
- Q2 4:23TNTC 4th & 13 at UGA 41, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−<0.121% to convertField goal1.0%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q2 0:45TNTC 4th & 9 at TNTC 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q2 0:00UGA 4th & 12 at TNTC 46, up 24Close callWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%−0.123% to convertField goal99.3%−0.123% to makePunt99.4%average punt
- Q3 11:20TNTC 4th & 7 at TNTC 28, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 11:20UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 40, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 1:17TNTC 4th & 10 at UGA 38, down 45Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%30% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 7:38UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 35, up 45Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:56TNTC 4th & 16 at TNTC 4, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 3:07UGA 4th & 8 at TNTC 13, up 45Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%85% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 12:27UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:37UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:11UGA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:54UGA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:21UGA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:46UGA Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTNTCDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:110% → 0%
UGADrive 2TD1 play · 22 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 22 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q1 11:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-8
99.7%
Jordyn Potts sacked by KJ Bolden for a loss of 8 yards to the TNTC 21Similar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
99.6%
Spencer Ashby punt for 39 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 7 yds to the UGA 42Similar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
99.6%
(10:21) ETIENNE, Trevor rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the UGA47 (PHILYAW, Omari), clock 10:15. PENALTY UGA Holding on RATLEDGE, Tate enforced 10 yards from the UGA42 to the UGA32 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4TD7 plays · 58 yds · 3:24100% → 100%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+4
99.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 4 yds to the UGA 36Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+13
99.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 13 yds to the TNTC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
99.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 12 yds to the TNTC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
99.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 14 yds to the TNTC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
99.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Branson Robinson for 14 yds to the TNTC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Colbie Young for 6 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 5 yds · 4:450% → 1%
Q1 6:37
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-7
99.6%
Jordyn Potts sacked by Christen Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the TNTC 33Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-12
99.4%
Jordyn Potts run for a loss of 12 yards to the TNTC 40 Jordyn Potts fumbled, recovered by TNTC Jordyn Potts J. Potts return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Spencer Ashby punt for 40 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for no gain to the UGA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6FG16 plays · 71 yds · 5:07100% → 100%
Q1 1:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
99.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 10 yds to the UGA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+11
99.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.5%
BECK, Carson pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BELL, Dillon thrown to the TTU5. PENALTY TTU Offsides on VAUGHN, Seth enforced 5 yards from the TTU50 to the TTU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+6
99.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 6 yds to the TNTC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 7PUNT14 plays · 34 yds · 7:221% → 1%
Q2 11:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
99.4%
Tennessee Tech Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Jay Parker) to the TNTC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:1299% → 100%
TNTCDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 1 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.6%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Kyron Cumby for a loss of 3 yards to the TNTC 22Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.6%
Spencer Ashby punt for 38 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 4 yds to the UGA 40Similar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+10
99.6%
BECK, Carson pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for LOVETT, Dominic thrown to the TTU40. PENALTY TTU Holding on WILLIFORD, Caldra enforced 10 yards from the UGA35 to the UGA45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10DOWNS5 plays · 14 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
99.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 11 yds to the TNTC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
50
+50
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 50 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 12FUMBLE2 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jordan Yates run for 2 yds to the TNTC 27 Jordan Yates fumbled, recovered by UGA Dan Jackson D. Jackson return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.9%
ROBINSON, Branson rush to the left for a gain of 24 yards to the TTU3 (DANLEY, Trace), out of bounds. PENALTY UGA Holding on JACKSON III, Michael declined UGA Holding on GREENE III, Earnest enforced 10 yards from the TTU27 to the TTU37 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD1 play · 27 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+37
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 37 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q3 11:20
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Spencer Ashby punt for 46 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 5 yds to the UGA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15TD10 plays · 69 yds · 4:34100% → 100%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Jaden Reddell for 5 yds to the UGA 36Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Cole Speer for 3 yds to the UGA 40Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+21
99.9%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Sacovie White for 21 yds to the TNTC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+9
99.9%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 9 yds to the TNTC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.9%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Branson Robinson for 7 yds to the TNTC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 16PUNT11 plays · 37 yds · 4:480% → 0%
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
100.0%
Georgia Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Justyn Rhett) to the TNTC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+4
99.9%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Kyron Cumby for 4 yds to the UGA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-16
100.0%
POTTS, Jordyn pass deep to the right complete for 25 yards to PARKER, Jay caught at the UGA20 and advanced to the UGA12 (RHETT, Justyn). PENALTY TTU Pass Interference on SHIELDS, Luke enforced 16 yards to the TTU47 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 25
OWN 47
+12
100.0%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to D.J. Linkins for 12 yds to the UGA 41Similar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
100.0%
Spencer Ashby punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the UGA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 8:39100% → 100%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
100.0%
Gunner Stockton sacked by Kanstin Brooks for a loss of 7 yards to the UGA 20Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 17
OWN 20
-10
100.0%
BOWENS, Chauncey rush up the middle for a gain of 9 yards to the UGA29 (GARCIA, Angel). PENALTY UGA Holding on CALHOUN, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the UGA20 to the UGA10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 27
OWN 10
+11
99.9%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 11 yds to the UGA 21Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+14
100.0%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Cole Speer for 14 yds to the UGA 35Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Brett Thorson punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jordan Yates at the TNTC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q4 7:38
3RD & 8
OWN 12
-8
100.0%
Jordyn Potts sacked by Jordan Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the TNTC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19FG8 plays · 37 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
50
+15
100.0%
Tennessee Tech Penalty, Personal Foul (Omari Philyaw) to the TNTC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
100.0%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Sacovie White for 1 yd to the TNTC 25Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+10
100.0%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 10 yds to the TNTC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-10
100.0%
QB Keeper STOCKTON, Gunner rush to the left for no gain to the TTU11 (BOLTON, Toby). PENALTY UGA Holding on JACKSON, Jahzare enforced 10 yards from the TTU11 to the TTU21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 20FG9 plays · 60 yds · 3:070% → 0%
Q4 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
100.0%
Georgia Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Justyn Rhett) to the UGA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:11
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 10 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q3 12:54
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 50 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+0.4