Jacksonville State

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2181st
  Defense+0.0859th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.5%77th
  Defense43.2%38th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3277th
  Defense+1.1780th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2188th
  Defense+0.0466th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2468th
  Defense+0.1454th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.4%75th
  Defense47.5%48th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.3%57th
  Defense33.2%22nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3589th
  Defense3.0146th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.8%78th
  Defense17.8%51st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense11.7%94th
  Defense16.8%56th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Jacksonville State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   CCU
2. L
   LOU
3. L
   EMU
4. W
   USM
5. W
   KENN
6. W
   NMSU
7. W
   MTSU
8. W
   LIB
9. W
   LT
10. W
    FIU
11. W
    SHSU
12. L
    WKU
13. W
    WKU
14. L
    OHIO

Bars above the line: better than expected for Jacksonville State.

Players, 2024

1. Tyler HuffQB419 plays · +0.334 pts/play · 3rd of 232 QBs
   2.62WAR1.93 to 3.44
2. Tre StewartRB240 plays · +0.148 pts/play · 6th of 373 RBs
   0.67WAR0.49 to 0.85
3. Cam VaughnWR50 plays · +0.175 pts/play · 70th of 452 WRs
   0.16WAR0.02 to 0.29
4. Jack DawsonP44 plays · +0.140 pts/play · 23rd of 106 punters
   0.12WAR0.04 to 0.18
5. Logan SmothersQB28 plays · +0.183 pts/play · 206th of 232 QBs
   0.10WAR0.05 to 0.15
6. Garrison RippaPK13 plays · +0.315 pts/play · 60th of 114 kickers
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.11
7. Anwar LewisRB21 plays · +0.130 pts/play · 288th of 373 RBs
   0.05WAR0.04 to 0.06
8. Michael PettwayWR20 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 254th of 452 WRs
   0.05WAR0.01 to 0.09

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Jacksonville State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  431431127th of 131Roster talent: 431, 127th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  4242130th of 131Recruiting: 42, 130th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  40%40%76th of 130Returning production: 40%, 76th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −1.0−1.071st of 131SP+ rating: −1.0, 71st of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Jacksonville State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at LIBQ4 3:46 4th & 1 at JXST 40, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−6.4 pts
2. vs WKUQ1 1:27 4th & 1 at JXST 32, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
3. vs USMQ2 1:53 4th & 2 at JXST 41, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
4. at WKUQ3 13:38 4th & 3 at JXST 46, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
5. vs OHIOQ4 5:25 4th & 8 at JXST 32, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.7 pts
6. vs SHSUQ4 0:26 4th & 5 at SHSU 34, up 10Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts
7. vs FIUQ2 8:32 4th & 2 at JXST 18, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
8. vs NMSUQ1 3:06 4th & 4 at NMSU 46, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

45th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Jacksonville State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   CCU
2. L

   LOU
3. L

   EMU
4. W

   USM
5. W

   KENN
6. W

   NMSU
7. W

   MTSU
8. W

   LIB
9. W

   LT
10. W

    FIU
11. W

    SHSU
12. L

    WKU
13. W

    WKU
14. L

    OHIO

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Jacksonville State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.95
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock−0.22
• Timeouts+0.56
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.49

Game by game

• CCUL 27-55 vs CCU58% → 0%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −58: Scoreboard −58, Clock −2
• LOUL 14-49 at LOU4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −6
• EMUL 34-37 at EMU52% → 20%Before kickoff +2 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts +25
• USMW 44-7 vs USM64% → 100%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts −1
• KENNW 63-24 at KENN87% → 100%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +18
• NMSUW 54-13 vs NMSU93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +10
• MTSUW 42-20 vs MTSU89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +16
• LIBW 31-21 at LIB37% → 97%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +61: Scoreboard +44, Timeouts +11
• LTW 44-37 at LT74% → 77%Before kickoff +24 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +29, Timeouts +17
• FIUW 34-31 vs FIU77% → 96%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +24, Timeouts +1
• SHSUW 21-11 vs SHSU63% → 97%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +32, Timeouts +2
• WKUL 17-19 at WKU48% → 24%Before kickoff −2 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −14, Possession & field position −2
• WKUW 52-12 vs WKU60% → 100%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +40
• OHIOL 27-30 vs OHIO34% → 7%Before kickoff −16 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −41, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from Jacksonville State's side.

Closest call

JXST 20-17 FSU (2021) - Jacksonville State dropped to a 3.1% win probability before pulling it out.