2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreJXST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:59 · Tre Stewart run for no gain to the EMU 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorTime remainingDefense timeoutsOffense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q4 14:10: Michael Pettway 32 Yd pass from Tyler Huff (Tyler Huff Pass to Brock Rechsteiner for Two-Point Conversion) — JXST win probability +23.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:34: Garrison Rippa 51 Yd Field Goal — JXST win probability +22.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- FG · OT 0:00: Jesus Gomez 40 Yd Field Goal — EMU win probability +16.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- FG · OT 0:00: Garrison Rippa 40 Yd Field Goal — JXST win probability +24.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- FG · OT2 0:00: Jesus Gomez 34 Yd Field Goal — EMU win probability +16.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6JXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 5:14JXST 4th & 2 at JXST 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snapGo for it49.5%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.5%average punt
- Q2 13:19JXST 4th & 9 at EMU 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snapGo for it42.1%−0.729% to convertField goalTheir call42.8%80% to makePunt38.8%−4.0average punt
- Q2 11:51EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 38, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt53.5%−1.1average punt
- Q2 6:12JXST 4th & 1 at EMU 45, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call44.6%70% to convertField goal41.9%−2.725% to makePunt42.7%−1.8average punt
- Q2 0:48JXST 4th & 5 at EMU 30, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snapGo for it29.3%−0.341% to convertField goalTheir call29.6%56% to makePunt27.8%−1.8average punt
- Q3 10:31EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 47, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snapGo for it71.5%−0.834% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.3%average punt
- Q3 8:24JXST 4th & 4 at EMU 39, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.0%48% to convertField goal27.5%−2.536% to makePunt27.8%−2.3average punt
- Q3 1:00EMU 4th & 23 at JXST 23, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.0% before the snapGo for it75.2%−5.47% to convertField goalTheir call80.6%70% to makePunt69.1%−11.5average punt
- Q4 12:20EMU 4th & 1 at JXST 49, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt64.8%−4.8average punt
- Q4 9:47EMU 4th & 4 at JXST 41, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.4%48% to convertField goal66.6%−4.832% to makePunt68.3%−3.1average punt
- Q4 7:59JXST 4th & 1 at EMU 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.5%71% to convertField goal33.5%−4.054% to makePunt28.6%−8.9average punt
- Q4 1:54EMU 4th & 9 at JXST 31, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snapGo for it83.1%−1.532% to convertField goalTheir call84.6%54% to makePunt78.7%−5.8average punt
- Q4 0:34JXST 4th & 14 at EMU 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snapGo for it13.7%−12.319% to convertField goalTheir call25.9%51% to makePunt10.1%−15.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4JXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 10:11JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.3%97% to makeGo for two51.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:43EMU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.5%97% to makeGo for two50.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:21EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.5%97% to makeGo for two55.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:39JXST Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.4%97% to makeGo for two50.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:10EMU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.5%97% to makeGo for two56.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:22EMU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.3%97% to makeGo for two68.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:10JXST Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick34.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call34.3%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartJXSTDrive 1TD14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4852% → 54%
EMUDrive 2TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2647% → 51%
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+23
46.7%
Delbert Mimms III run for 8 yds to the JVST 45 for a 1ST down Jacksonville State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jawaun Campbell) to the JVST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+21
47.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 21 yds to the JVST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2751% → 51%
Q1 5:14
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
49.4%
Jack Dawson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Oran Singleton at the EMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4TD10 plays · 77 yds · 3:4650% → 61%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
49.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 6 yds to the EMU 29Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+8
49.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Max Reese for 8 yds to the EMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
50.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 7 yds to the EMU 44Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
51.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+15
51.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 15 yds to the JVST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
52.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 12 yds to the JVST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
61.3%
Elijah Jackson-Anderson 24 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Jesus Gomez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 5FG10 plays · 53 yds · 3:0045% → 47%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
55.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 19 yds to the JVST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
54.6%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Sean Brown for 22 yds to the EMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
54.0%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 11 yds to the EMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-6
53.8%
(14:58) QB Keeper HUFF, Tyler rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the EMU12 (CARTER, David), clock 14:54. PENALTY JSU Holding on BROWN, Sean enforced 6 yards from the EMU18 to the EMU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-10
54.4%
QB Keeper HUFF, Tyler rush to the right for no gain to the EMU19 (KILLEN, JT), clock 14:17. PENALTY JSU Holding on JONES, Cam enforced 10 yards from the EMU19 to the EMU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1353% → 54%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
52.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 2 yds to the EMU 31Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
53.5%
(12:02) TOMASEK, Mitchell punt 59 yards to the JSU8 downed by SCANDRETT, Quentavius, clock 11:52. PENALTY JSU Holding on GALLAGHER, Thaxton declined JSU Running Into the kicker on FRANKLIN, JR., Travis enforced 5 yards from the EMU33 to the EMU38 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 7TD1 play · 37 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2844% → 60%
Q2 10:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
47.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 12 yds to the EMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
49.7%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Illegal Motion (Sean Brown) to the JVST 43Similar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+9
49.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 9 yds to the JVST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 9DOWNS7 plays · 30 yds · 1:5741% → 41%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.8%
(08:09) HUFF, Tyler pass up the middle complete for 1 yard to PETTWAY, Michael caught at the JSU21 and advanced to the JSU26 (KILLEN, JT;SCANDRETT, Quentavius), clock 08:06. PENALTY EMU Offsides on JEFFERSON, Justin enforced 5 yards from the JSU25 to the JSU30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+16
57.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Tar'Varish Dawson for 16 yds to the JVST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
57.1%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jordan McCants for 6 yds to the EMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10TD6 plays · 55 yds · 2:4561% → 77%
JXSTDrive 11FG9 plays · 45 yds · 2:3227% → 30%
EMUDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3973% → 69%
EMUDrive 13PUNT11 plays · 27 yds · 4:2470% → 71%
Q3 13:43
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+9
69.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 9 yds to the EMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+8
71.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 8 yds to the EMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-5
72.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the EMU 47Similar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+2
70.7%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 46 yds , Samario Rudolph returns for 2 yds to the JVST 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14DOWNS8 plays · 55 yds · 1:5929% → 31%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
68.5%
(09:13) HUFF, Tyler pass to the left incomplete intended for VAUGHN, Cam broken up by WHITE, Daiquan at the EMU45, clock 09:09. PENALTY EMU Pass Interference on WHITE, Daiquan enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the EMU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+3
69.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 3 yds to the EMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15FG17 plays · 41 yds · 7:0374% → 83%
Q3 7:27
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+23
73.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 23 yds to the JVST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-8
76.6%
Cole Snyder sacked by Reginald Hughes for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 18
50
-3
77.5%
Cole Snyder sacked by Ricky Samuel and Fred Perry for a loss of 3 yards to the EMU 47Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 21
OWN 47
+22
76.3%
Elijah Jackson-Anderson run for 22 yds to the JVST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
81.1%
Cole Snyder sacked by Laletia Hale for a loss of 6 yards to the JVST 37Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+14
80.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 14 yds to the JVST 23Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+5
80.6%
Elijah Jackson-Anderson run for 5 yds to the JVST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
81.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 8 yds to the JVST 10Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 4
OPP 12
-8
81.6%
(02:33) SNYDER, Cole pass to the left intercepted by MACK, Jabari at the JSU0 intended for GRIFFIN, Zyell. Mack return for 0 yards to the JSU0, touchback., clock 02:30. PENALTY JSU Holding on MACK, Jabari enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the JSU12 to the JSU6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
82.3%
(01:47) SNYDER, Cole pass to the left complete for 6 yards to REESE, Max caught at the JSU11 and advanced to the JSU0, TOUCHDOWN EMU, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:45 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY EMU Holding on INDESTAD, Mack enforced 10 yards from the JSU6 to the JSU16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
-7
81.7%
Cole Snyder sacked by Ky'won McCray and J-Rock Swain for a loss of 7 yards to the JVST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4719% → 45%
Q3 0:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
81.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Michael Pettway for 19 yds to the JVST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+15
78.6%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Sean Brown for 15 yds to the EMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
54.8%
Michael Pettway 32 Yd pass from Tyler Huff (Tyler Huff Pass to Brock Rechsteiner for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17DOWNS11 plays · 34 yds · 4:2166% → 69%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
66.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 17 yds to the EMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 28 yds · 1:4238% → 37%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
62.5%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Targeting on DEENER, Tyrelle enforced (Tyrelle Deener) to the EMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19MISSED FG16 plays · 38 yds · 6:0273% → 86%
Q4 6:41
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+6
73.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 6 yds to the EMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
77.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 6 yds to the JVST 49Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-10
78.0%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (Terry Lockett Jr.) to the EMU 49Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+9
77.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 9 yds to the JVST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+6
82.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 6 yds to the JVST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20FG8 plays · 37 yds · 1:1626% → 46%
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+17
74.7%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jordan McCants for 17 yds to the JVST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
69.9%
(01:30) HUFF, Tyler pass deep to the right incomplete thrown to the EMU30, clock 01:27. PENALTY EMU Holding on MONDS, Jaylyn enforced 10 yards from the JSU48 to the EMU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-4
66.9%
Tyler Huff sacked by Justin Jefferson for a loss of 4 yards to the EMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21END OF GAME4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0957% → 42%
EMUDrive 22FG5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0066% → 80%
JXSTDrive 23FG7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0029% → 44%
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
-10
74.5%
(00:00) QB Keeper HUFF, Tyler rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the EMU19 (KILLEN, JT). PENALTY JSU Holding on JONES, Cam enforced 10 yards from the EMU27 to the EMU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 22
OPP 37
+20
80.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Michael Pettway for 20 yds to the EMU 17Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-27
71.4%
run for a loss of 27 yards to the EMU 28 fumbled, recovered by JVST Tyler Huff T. Huff return for 0 ydsSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 28
+6
80.7%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Michael Pettway for 6 yds to the EMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 24MISSED FG5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0059% → 49%
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-10
41.1%
(00:00) HUFF, Tyler pass to the right incomplete intended for VAUGHN, Cam thrown to the EMU12; QB hurried by ZELINSKY, Joey. PENALTY JSU Holding on JONES, Cam enforced 10 yards from the EMU23 to the EMU33 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25FG4 plays · 9 yds · 15:0066% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · OT 0:00
Garrison Rippa 40 Yd Field Goal
-24.4
TD · Q4 14:10
Michael Pettway 32 Yd pass from Tyler Huff (Tyler Huff Pass to Brock Rechsteiner for Two-Point Conversion)
-23.8
FG · Q4 0:34
Garrison Rippa 51 Yd Field Goal
-22.2