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JXST

Jacksonville State 44 at Louisiana Tech 37

LT
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:23 · Jack Dawson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 97Pregame prior−11.3Home team on offense−8.1Garbage-time factor−3.5Score differential−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Time remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:23: Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 3 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK) — LT win probability +11.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:58: Evan Bullock pass complete to Jay Wilkerson for 32 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK) — LT win probability +19.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:20: Marquis Crosby run for 4 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK) — LT win probability +18.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:00: Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 49 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa PAT MISSED) — JXST win probability +26.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Tre Stewart run for 11 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +19.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 7JXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:52LT 4th & 3 at LT 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:12LT 4th & 10 at JXST 37, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:57JXST 4th & 9 at JXST 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:45LT 4th & 8 at LT 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:23JXST 4th & 4 at JXST 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:04LT 4th & 2 at LT 38, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:43JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−1.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:08LT 4th & 3 at JXST 36, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−3.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    53.0%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:55JXST 4th & 3 at LT 22, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:38LT 4th & 3 at JXST 47, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:51JXST 4th & 6 at LT 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.0%−5.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:49LT 4th & 5 at JXST 46, up 6
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5JXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:57JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:32LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:56JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:25JXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:59LT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:50JXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:23LT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:58LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:20LT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:00JXST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−15.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JXSTDrive 1TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:0374% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.3%
Tre Stewart run for 5 yds to the JVST 30Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
26.5%
Tre Stewart run for 7 yds to the JVST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
26.7%
Tyler Huff run for a loss of 1 yard to the JVST 36Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+12
26.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jordan McCants for 12 yds to the JVST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
27.4%
Tre Stewart run for 7 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+3
27.4%
Travis Franklin Jr. run for 3 yds to the LT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
27.6%
Tre Stewart run for 1 yd to the LT 41Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+9
27.6%
Tyler Huff run for 9 yds to the LT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
27.7%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
27.8%
Tre Stewart run for 6 yds to the LT 26Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+6
28.1%
Tre Stewart run for 6 yds to the LT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
28.1%
Tre Stewart run for 4 yds to the LT 16Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+1
28.2%
Tyler Huff run for 1 yd to the LT 15Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+8
28.6%
Tyler Huff run for 8 yds to the LT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
28.4%
Tre Stewart run for 3 yds to the LT 4Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
28.4%
Andrew Paul run for 3 yds to the LT 1Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.7%
Andrew Paul run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0527% → 27%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
27.2%
Omiri Wiggins run for 8 yds to the LT 33Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
27.6%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
27.5%
Omiri Wiggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 32Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
27.3%
Patrick Rea punt for 44 yds, downed at the JVST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 3FUMBLE
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:2473% → 73%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
27.2%
Tre Stewart run for 1 yd to the JVST 25Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
27.3%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Anwar Lewis for 5 yds to the JVST 30Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+15
27.2%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mekhi Mason) to the JVST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
26.9%
Tre Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the JVST 39Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
27.1%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+15
27.4%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jarod Bowie for 15 yds to the LT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
26.8%
Tre Stewart run for 2 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-19
26.8%
Tyler Huff run for a loss of 19 yards to the JVST 37 Tyler Huff fumbled, recovered by LT Mykol Clark M. Clark return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5829% → 28%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
28.8%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the JVST 36Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+5
28.9%
Amani Givens run for 5 yds to the JVST 31Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 4
OPP 31
-6
29.0%
Evan Bullock sacked by Talan Carter for a loss of 6 yards to the JVST 37Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+54
28.1%
Buck Buchanan 54 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1173% → 72%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
27.4%
Tre Stewart run for no gain to the JVST 37Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
27.5%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+1
27.8%
Tyler Huff run for 1 yd to the JVST 38Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+37
28.0%
Jack Dawson punt for 37 yds , Tru Edwards returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD
1 play · 86 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+86
32.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 86 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 7TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3568% → 73%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.2%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
32.3%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the JVST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
31.5%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the JVST 31Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+10
32.6%
(00:55) HUFF, Tyler pass to the left complete for 2 yards to STEWART, Tre caught at the JAXST25 and advanced to the JAXST33 (WATSON, Cole;RICHARD, Michael), clock 00:51. PENALTY LATECH Holding on DAVIS, Christian enforced 10 yards from the JAXST31 to the JAXST41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
31.7%
Tre Stewart run for 3 yds to the JVST 44Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
31.6%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 8 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
31.7%
Tre Stewart run for 3 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+18
31.8%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 18 yds to the LT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
31.5%
Tre Stewart run for 2 yds to the LT 25Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
31.6%
Tre Stewart run for no gain to the LT 25Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+13
32.5%
(13:10) HUFF, Tyler pass up the middle incomplete intended for RECHSTEINER, Brock thrown to the LATECH15, clock 13:09. PENALTY LATECH Pass Interference on FIELDS, Kolbe enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards to the LATECH12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
31.7%
Tre Stewart run for 4 yds to the LT 8Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
31.9%
Tre Stewart run for 4 yds to the LT 4Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
27.0%
Tre Stewart run for 4 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3629% → 31%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.7%
Amani Givens run for 1 yd to the LT 26Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
28.7%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
29.8%
Amani Givens run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 40Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+1
29.3%
Amani Givens run for 1 yd to the LT 41Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+11
28.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Solo Lewis for 11 yds to the JVST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
30.6%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 5 yds to the JVST 43Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-17
30.8%
Evan Bullock sacked for a loss of 17 yards to the LT 2 Evan Bullock fumbled, recovered by JVST Jawaun Campbell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 9TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4374% → 80%
Q2 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
26.5%
Tre Stewart run for 1 yd to the LT 1Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.5%
Tre Stewart run for no gain to the LT 1Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.2%
Tyler Huff run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1722% → 32%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
21.7%
Marquis Crosby run for 11 yds to the LT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
21.7%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the LT 37Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
21.2%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+21
21.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 21 yds to the JVST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
22.3%
Omiri Wiggins run for 4 yds to the JVST 38Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+27
22.3%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 27 yds to the JVST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
22.6%
Jimmy Holiday run for 9 yds to the JVST 2Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
31.7%
Jimmy Holiday run for 2 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0673% → 82%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
27.4%
Tre Stewart run for 33 yds to the LT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
25.7%
Tre Stewart run for 11 yds to the LT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
25.5%
Tre Stewart run for no gain to the LT 31Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
18.4%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 31 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2719% → 29%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.4%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 2 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
19.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 14 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
20.2%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Personal Foul (Fred Perry) to the JVST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
20.6%
Marquis Crosby run for 6 yds to the JVST 34Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+25
21.2%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 25 yds to the JVST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
21.1%
Jimmy Holiday run for 4 yds to the JVST 5Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
21.1%
Jimmy Holiday run for 2 yds to the JVST 3Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 3 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
25.3%
(00:13) [SG] Kneel down by TEAM at JAXST24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:02.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0428% → 27%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
28.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Fred Robertson for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 23Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+3
28.0%
Evan Bullock run for 3 yds to the LT 26Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
27.0%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
26.6%
Patrick Rea punt for 58 yds, downed at the JVST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
26.6%
Tre Stewart run for 7 yds to the JVST 23 Tre Stewart fumbled, recovered by LT Isaiah Mcelvane I. Mcelvane return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2633% → 32%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
32.5%
Omiri Wiggins run for 6 yds to the JVST 17Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
32.3%
Evan Bullock pass intercepted, touchback. Geimere Latimer return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1073% → 72%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
26.6%
Tre Stewart run for 3 yds to the JVST 23Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
26.4%
Tre Stewart run for 3 yds to the JVST 26Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
26.6%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
28.1%
Jack Dawson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1828% → 28%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
28.2%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
27.8%
Marquis Crosby run for 5 yds to the LT 35Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+3
27.7%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 3 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+1
27.7%
Patrick Rea punt for 47 yds , Samario Rudolph returns for 1 yd to the JVST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1273% → 71%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
26.7%
Tyler Huff run for 2 yds to the JVST 18Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+3
27.0%
Tyler Huff run for 3 yds to the JVST 21Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
27.6%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
28.6%
Jack Dawson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:4529% → 52%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
28.5%
Amani Givens run for 5 yds to the LT 39Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+2
30.5%
Jimmy Holiday run for 2 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+3
28.7%
Jimmy Holiday run for 3 yds to the LT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
29.7%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 5 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+21
30.5%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 21 yds to the JVST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
32.7%
Marquis Crosby run for a loss of 2 yards to the JVST 32Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+32
51.6%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jay Wilkerson for 32 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 21SF
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1758% → 48%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.5%
Tre Stewart run for no gain to the JVST 25Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.1%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.4%
Tyler Huff run for 7 yds to the JVST 32Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
51.9%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:1956% → 56%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
55.8%
Marquis Crosby run for 11 yds to the JVST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
57.2%
Marquis Crosby run for a loss of 1 yard to the JVST 44Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+6
56.6%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Amani Givens for 6 yds to the JVST 38Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+2
56.9%
Amani Givens run for 2 yds to the JVST 36Similar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
55.7%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 23INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:5450% → 52%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
50.0%
Tyler Huff run for 9 yds to the JVST 45Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
47.0%
Tre Stewart run for 1 yd to the JVST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
47.8%
Tyler Huff run for 3 yds to the JVST 49Similar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-11
47.7%
Tyler Huff pass intercepted Jacob Fields return for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:4260% → 84%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
50
+7
59.6%
Omiri Wiggins run for 7 yds to the JVST 43Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
60.2%
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds to the JVST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
60.8%
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds to the JVST 37Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+2
60.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for 2 yds to the JVST 35Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+6
62.5%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 6 yds to the JVST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
64.7%
Evan Bullock run for 10 yds to the JVST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
65.3%
Marquis Crosby run for 3 yds to the JVST 16Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+12
65.8%
Jimmy Holiday run for 12 yds to the JVST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.2%
Marquis Crosby run for 4 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 25FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:2218% → 30%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.4%
Tyler Huff run for 5 yds to the JVST 30Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
80.4%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
81.7%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 9 yds to the JVST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
79.9%
Tre Stewart run for 8 yds to the JVST 47Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
78.7%
Tyler Huff run for no gain to the JVST 47Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+13
80.2%
Tre Stewart run for 13 yds to the LT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
78.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 9 yds to the LT 31Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+2
79.1%
Andrew Paul run for 2 yds to the LT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
79.5%
Andrew Paul run for 6 yds to the LT 23Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
79.9%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+1
81.6%
Andrew Paul run for 1 yd to the LT 22Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
70.2%
Garrison Rippa 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:1485% → 88%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
85.0%
Fred Robertson run for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 21Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+25
84.6%
Omiri Wiggins run for 25 yds to the LT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
88.1%
Jimmy Holiday run for 2 yds to the LT 48Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
88.8%
Marquis Crosby run for no gain to the LT 48Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+5
88.5%
Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the JVST 47Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
88.0%
Patrick Rea punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:3622% → 24%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
78.2%
Tyler Huff run for 1 yd to the JVST 22Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+10
79.0%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 10 yds to the JVST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
76.6%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Tre Stewart for 15 yds to the JVST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
74.0%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 4 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
70.2%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
73.3%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
75.8%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:5694% → 95%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
94.4%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 9
50
+1
93.7%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the JVST 49Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+3
92.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds to the JVST 46Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
94.9%
Patrick Rea punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 29TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 0:3723% → 53%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
77.4%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jordan McCants for 14 yds to the JVST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
76.8%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+17
76.3%
Tyler Huff run for 17 yds to the LT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
72.6%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
73.3%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+49
46.6%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 49 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 30TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
41.1%
Tre Stewart run for 4 yds to the LT 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+10
41.1%
Tre Stewart run for 10 yds to the LT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
22.0%
Tre Stewart run for 11 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 31Uncategorized
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0028% → 24%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
28.0%
Jimmy Holiday run for 5 yds to the JVST 20Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+2
28.0%
Omiri Wiggins run for 2 yds to the JVST 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+1
25.7%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the JVST 17Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 17
-9
23.5%
Evan Bullock sacked by J-Rock Swain for a loss of 9 yards to the JVST 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 49 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa PAT MISSED)
-26.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-23.5
TD · OT 0:00
Tre Stewart run for 11 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
-19.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com