2024 · Week 10 · Oct 30, 2024 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreJXST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:17 · (00:17) [NH] Kneel down by HUFF, Tyler at JSU29 (team loss of 1), clock 00:11.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialOffense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:16: Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +7.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:22: Garrison Rippa 25 yd FG GOOD — JXST win probability +3.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:35: Tre Stewart run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +14.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:29: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 4 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +26.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: LIB down 3 timeouts).
- TD · Q4 1:57: Tre Stewart run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +3.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 8JXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 13:23JXST 4th & 18 at JXST 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snapGo for it41.5%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.7%average punt
- Q1 5:28LIB 4th & 27 at JXST 36, tiedClose callPunted · 57.9% before the snapGo for it57.5%−0.57% to convertField goal58.0%42% to makePuntTheir call58.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:57LIB 4th & 1 at JXST 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.2%70% to convertField goal58.0%−1.225% to makePunt58.4%−0.8average punt
- Q2 14:52JXST 4th & 8 at JXST 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it42.0%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.2%average punt
- Q2 12:43LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 41, tiedClose callPunted · 58.3% before the snapGo for it58.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:20JXST 4th & 9 at LIB 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snapGo for it44.5%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.6%average punt
- Q3 13:53LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snapGo for it57.9%−0.552% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.4%average punt
- Q3 9:22JXST 4th & 7 at LIB 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snapGo for it44.3%−0.828% to convertField goalTheir call45.0%91% to makePunt34.2%−10.8average punt
- Q3 7:08LIB 4th & 7 at LIB 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snapGo for it48.6%−1.037% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.6%average punt
- Q4 14:55LIB 4th & 8 at JXST 40, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.0%34% to convertField goal25.0%−1.034% to makePunt25.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 10:40JXST 4th & 7 at JXST 39, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snapGo for it58.4%−1.037% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.4%average punt
- Q4 5:46LIB 4th & 1 at JXST 17, down 3Close callWent for it · 42.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.6%−0.171% to convertField goal42.7%80% to makePunt23.1%−19.6average punt
- Q4 3:46JXST 4th & 1 at JXST 40, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 6.4 ptsPunted · 73.4% before the snapGo for it75.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.3%−6.4average punt
- Q4 0:23LIB 4th & 15 at JXST 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.4% before the snapGo for it6.3%−1.517% to convertField goalTheir call7.8%56% to makePunt5.7%−2.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3JXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:43LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.6%97% to makeGo for two59.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:30JXST Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.7%97% to makeGo for two41.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:53JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.8%97% to makeGo for two48.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:16LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.2%97% to makeGo for two55.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:35JXST Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.5%97% to makeGo for two72.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:29LIB Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.2%97% to makeGo for two39.8%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 1:57JXST Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartJXSTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3737% → 37%
Q1 14:02
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-10
63.4%
Tyler Huff sacked by TJ Bush Jr. and CJ Bazile Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the JVST 32Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 18
OWN 32
+29
63.5%
Jack Dawson punt for 29 yds , Charles Yates Jr. returns for no gain to the LIB 38 , returns for no gain to the LIB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD5 plays · 62 yds · 2:3064% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 3TD1 play · 75 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4PUNT12 plays · 43 yds · 4:5163% → 62%
Q1 9:06
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
63.6%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Personal Foul (Fred Perry) to the JVST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+20
63.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 20 yds to the JVST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 9
OPP 18
-8
64.0%
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 8 yards to the JVST 26 Kaidon Salter fumbled, recovered by LIB Kaidon Salter K. Salter return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 17
OPP 26
-10
63.1%
(05:36) SALTER, Kaidon pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for GRAY, Julian thrown to the JSU1, clock 05:32. PENALTY LU Holding on WHITE, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the JSU26 to the JSU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 5FUMBLE6 plays · 57 yds · 1:1738% → 39%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
61.0%
Jacksonville State Penalty, False Start (Will O'Steen) to the LIB 47Similar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+15
61.5%
(04:17) HUFF, Tyler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for RUDOLPH, Samario thrown to the LU10, clock 04:10. PENALTY LU Pass Interference on GREEN, Brylan enforced 15 yards to the LU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
60.7%
Tre Stewart run for 9 yds to the LIB 23 Tre Stewart fumbled, recovered by LIB Dexter Ricks Jr. D. Ricks Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6DOWNS9 plays · 32 yds · 3:1163% → 60%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
62.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 11 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
60.2%
(00:49) STEWART, Tre rush to the right for a gain of 18 yards to the LU37 (REESE, Quinton), clock 00:42. PENALTY JSU Holding on WEBB, Clay enforced 10 yards from the JSU45 to the JSU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4239% → 39%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5963% → 62%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
62.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 14 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
63.1%
Billy Lucas run for no gain to the LIB 34 Billy Lucas fumbled, recovered by LIB Kaidon Salter K. Salter return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 9TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3842% → 50%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
56.2%
Tyler Huff pass complete to P.J. Wells for 15 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:3559% → 65%
Q2 7:41
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+15
57.5%
(07:41) SALTER, Kaidon pass up the middle incomplete intended for HANSHAW, Bentley thrown to the LU49, clock 07:37. PENALTY JSU Roughing the Passer on HALE, Laletia enforced 15 yards from the LU41 to the JSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11PUNT13 plays · 27 yds · 3:5641% → 40%
LIBDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
61.8%
(00:14) [NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at LU4 (team loss of 1), clock 00:09.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0662% → 60%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14FG12 plays · 71 yds · 4:1942% → 50%
Q3 13:17
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+14
56.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Michael Pettway for 14 yds to the JVST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
55.4%
(12:59) STEWART, Tre rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the JSU45 (JOLLY, JR., Jerome), clock 12:55. PENALTY JSU Holding on WEBB, Clay enforced 10 yards from the JSU41 to the JSU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+18
58.0%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Sean Brown for 18 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+39
54.3%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 39 yds to the LIB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
52.7%
(11:13) STEWART, Tre rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the LU0, TOUCHDOWN JSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 11:11 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY JSU Holding on HARLEY, Daveion enforced 10 yards from the LU4 to the LU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0551% → 49%
JXSTDrive 16TD13 plays · 87 yds · 4:1952% → 76%
Q3 6:17
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+5
48.3%
(06:17) HUFF, Tyler pass up the middle incomplete intended for VAUGHN, Cam broken up by RICKS, JR., Dexter at the JSU28, clock 06:14. PENALTY LU Offsides on WILLIAMS, Brenton enforced 5 yards from the JSU16 to the JSU21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-10
42.8%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Illegal Block (Cam Vaughn) to the JVST 49Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+10
46.0%
(04:57) HUFF, Tyler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BOWIE, Jarod thrown to the LU18, clock 04:53. PENALTY LU Holding on WILLIAMS, Amarian enforced 10 yards from the JSU49 to the LU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17TD15 plays · 78 yds · 5:0322% → 48%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
21.9%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Laletia Hale for a loss of 7 yards to the LIB 15Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 8
OPP 40
+22
20.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 22 yds to the JVST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+2
22.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 12 yds to the JVST 5 Liberty Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacob Jenkins) to the JVST 22Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+5
19.2%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Offsides (J-Rock Swain) to the JVST 17Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+10
20.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 10 yds to the JVST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
48.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 4 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:4749% → 51%
LIBDrive 19DOWNS11 plays · 49 yds · 4:4647% → 47%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
46.7%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ricky Samuel) to the LIB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
53.6%
(08:23) SALTER, Kaidon pass to the left complete for -5 yards to BLUE, Vaughn caught at the JSU44 and advanced to the JSU44 (PERRY, Fred), clock 08:18. PENALTY JSU Offsides on DAVIS II, Fred enforced 5 yards from the JSU39 to the JSU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 1
OPP 17
-1
46.5%
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 1 yard to the JVST 17 Kaidon Salter fumbled, recovered by LIB Kaidon SalterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 23 yds · 1:5266% → 69%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21INT3 plays · 14 yds · 0:4925% → 22%
JXSTDrive 22TD3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3687% → 96%
LIBDrive 23MISSED FG13 plays · 56 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
1.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Julian Gray for 8 yds to the LIB 22Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+8
1.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 8 yds to the LIB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
1.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quinton Cooley for 9 yds to the LIB 39Similar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
1.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 16 yds to the JVST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+14
1.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 14 yds to the JVST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
2.0%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Shane Payton Hodges for a loss of 5 yards to the JVST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 24END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
2.8%
(00:17) [NH] Kneel down by HUFF, Tyler at JSU29 (team loss of 1), clock 00:11.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:29
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 4 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
+26.1
TD · Q3 2:35
Tre Stewart run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
-14.6
TD · Q2 4:16
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
+7.6