Jacksonville State

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Jacksonville State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.

Game by game

1. L
   TLSA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Jacksonville State.

Players, 2022

1. Aaron McLaughlinQB10 plays · +0.105 pts/play
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03
2. Zion WebbQB3 plays · +0.185 pts/play
   0.01WAR0.01 to 0.01

By position group

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Jacksonville State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Jacksonville State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at TLSAQ2 7:26 4th & 2 at JXST 43, down 26Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
2. at TLSAQ2 10:15 4th & 2 at JXST 33, down 19Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
3. at TLSAQ2 8:27 4th & 2 at JXST 43, down 26Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
4. at TLSAQ3 6:47 4th & 1 at JXST 13, down 30Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
5. at TLSAQ3 8:15 4th & 1 at JXST 13, down 30Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
6. at TLSAQ1 6:45 4th & 2 at JXST 33, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

Expected wins adds up Jacksonville State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   TLSA

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Jacksonville State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.21
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.03

Game by game

• TLSAL 17-54 at TLSA17% → 0%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −21

Points of win probability, from Jacksonville State's side.

Closest call

JXST 20-17 FSU (2021) - Jacksonville State dropped to a 3.1% win probability before pulling it out.