Jacksonville State

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1361st
  Defense+0.0953rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.7%62nd
  Defense42.1%46th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2556th
  Defense+1.2930th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1577th
  Defense+0.0842nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1337th
  Defense+0.1556th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.9%56th
  Defense47.7%41st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.0%56th
  Defense30.4%41st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1577th
  Defense2.7176th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.2%56th
  Defense20.5%68th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.0%65th
  Defense17.0%71st

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Jacksonville State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   UCF
2. W
   LIB
3. L
   GASO
4. W
   MUR
5. L
   USM
6. W
   SHSU
7. W
   DEL
8. W
   MTSU
9. W
   UTEP
10. W
    KENN
11. L
    FIU
12. W
    WKU
13. L
    KENN
14. W
    TROY

Bars above the line: better than expected for Jacksonville State.

Players, 2025

1. Caden CreelQB355 plays · +0.172 pts/play · 77th of 231 QBs
   1.15WAR0.48 to 1.82
2. Cam CookRB290 plays · +0.096 pts/play · 2nd of 365 RBs
   0.52WAR0.37 to 0.69
3. Gavin WimsattQB121 plays · +0.189 pts/play · 137th of 231 QBs
   0.43WAR0.17 to 0.68
4. Deondre JohnsonWR55 plays · +0.286 pts/play · 25th of 451 WRs
   0.29WAR0.17 to 0.44
5. Garrison RippaPK23 plays · +0.298 pts/play · 10th of 112 kickers
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.18
6. Pearson BaldwinTE35 plays · +0.117 pts/play · 49th of 213 TEs
   0.08WAR0.01 to 0.14
7. Brock RechsteinerWR41 plays · +0.065 pts/play · 304th of 451 WRs
   0.05WAR−0.04 to 0.16
8. Michael PettwayWR13 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 372nd of 451 WRs
   0.02WAR0.00 to 0.05

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Jacksonville State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  520520111th of 134Roster talent: 520, 111th of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  7171129th of 134Recruiting: 71, 129th of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  12%12%119th of 132Returning production: 12%, 119th of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −6.7−6.790th of 134SP+ rating: −6.7, 90th of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Jacksonville State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.07 of the 0.14 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WKUQ4 12:28 4th & 2 at WKU 9, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.0 pts
2. at UTEPQ4 4:00 4th & 10 at JXST 47, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
3. at UTEPQ3 12:16 4th & 7 at JXST 42, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.3 pts
4. at MTSUQ3 11:06 4th & 2 at JXST 44, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
5. vs KENNQ4 0:21 4th & 20 at JXST 15, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−1.0 pts
6. vs LIBQ4 4:08 4th & 3 at LIB 7, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. at FIUQ3 8:11 4th & 9 at FIU 37, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. at UCFQ3 5:28 4th & 4 at UCF 25, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

10th of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Jacksonville State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   UCF
2. W

   LIB
3. L

   GASO
4. W

   MUR
5. L

   USM
6. W

   SHSU
7. W

   DEL
8. W

   MTSU
9. W

   UTEP
10. W

    KENN
11. L

    FIU
12. W

    WKU
13. L

    KENN
14. W

    TROY

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Jacksonville State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.60
• Clock+0.06
• Timeouts+0.07
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.49

Game by game

• UCFL 10-17 at UCF10% → 6%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −17, Timeouts +1
• LIBW 34-24 vs LIB30% → 97%Before kickoff −20 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +43, Timeouts +3
• GASOL 34-41 at GASO35% → 2%Before kickoff −15 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −33, Clock −1
• MURW 45-10 vs MUR98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• USML 25-42 at USM35% → 1%Before kickoff −15 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −39, Clock +3
• SHSUW 29-27 at SHSU66% → 96%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +39, Clock +2
• DELW 38-25 vs DEL45% → 98%Before kickoff −5 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +45, Timeouts −1
• MTSUW 24-21 at MTSU55% → 89%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +45, Timeouts −3
• UTEPW 30-27 at UTEP44% → 93%Before kickoff −6 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +50, Clock +3
• KENNW 35-26 vs KENN43% → 96%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +1
• FIUL 21-27 at FIU37% → 3%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −2
• WKUW 37-34 vs WKU45% → 94%Before kickoff −5 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +3
• KENNL 15-19 vs KENN47% → 4%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −47, Clock −2
• TROYW 17-13 vs TROY55% → 88%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +3

Points of win probability, from Jacksonville State's side.

Closest call

JXST 20-17 FSU (2021) - Jacksonville State dropped to a 3.1% win probability before pulling it out.