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MUR

Murray State 10 at Jacksonville State 45

JXST
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · AmFirst Stadium
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Win probability · JXST
modelJXST aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey playJXST scoreMUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Baxter Wright pass complete to Sawyer Deerman for 3 yds to the MUR 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:32: Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 17 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +0.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:25: Cam Cook run for 4 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +1.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:13: Gavin Wimsatt run for 28 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  4. FUMBLE · Q3 9:46: run for a loss of 5 yards fumbled, recovered by MUR Conlee Crossno for a TD (Jack Tannehill KICK) — MUR win probability +2.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:08: Cam Cook 11 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick) — JXST win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MUR made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:34JXST 4th & 5 at MUR 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:07MUR 4th & 8 at MUR 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:12JXST 4th & 12 at JXST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:07MUR 4th & 1 at MUR 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:07MUR 4th & 1 at MUR 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:34JXST 4th & 3 at JXST 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:54MUR 4th & 8 at JXST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:52MUR 4th & 7 at MUR 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:52MUR 4th & 7 at MUR 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:51JXST 4th & 1 at MUR 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 11:02JXST 4th & 10 at MUR 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:56MUR 4th & 1 at JXST 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:33MUR 4th & 12 at MUR 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:10MUR 4th & 1 at JXST 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.1%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:55JXST 4th & 5 at midfield, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:25MUR 4th & 4 at MUR 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:11JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 38, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:51MUR 4th & 12 at MUR 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 1:32JXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:25JXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:13JXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:08JXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:06JXST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:15JXST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JXSTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:1598% → 98%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
98.1%
Cam Cook run for 7 yds to the JXST 23Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+9
98.1%
Cam Cook run for 9 yds to the JXST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
98.0%
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the JXST 35Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+14
98.0%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to for 14 yds to the JXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+14
97.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for 14 yds to the JXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
97.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 3 yds to the JXST 46Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+8
97.8%
Cam Cook run for 8 yds to the MUR 46Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
97.8%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
97.8%
Conor Donaghy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Darius Cannon at the MUR 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:212% → 2%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
97.7%
Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MUR 8Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+1
97.7%
Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MUR 9Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 8
OWN 9
0
97.6%
Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Darius CannonSimilar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 8
OWN 9
0
97.6%
Tom O'Hara punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the JXST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5098% → 97%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
97.6%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Gabe GloverSimilar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
97.6%
Cam Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the JXST 40Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
97.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Cam CookSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
97.4%
Conor Donaghy punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:003% → 3%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
97.4%
Jawaun Northington run for 4 yds to the MUR 11Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+2
97.3%
Darius Cannon run for 2 yds to the MUR 13Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+3
97.2%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Darius Cannon for 3 yds to the MUR 16Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
97.1%
Tom O'Hara punt for 62 ydsSimilar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
97.1%
Tom O'Hara punt for 62 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2597% → 97%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
97.0%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the JXST 11Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
96.9%
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Wimsatt,Gavin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Jax St12 (Abdul-Rahim,Keyaan) PENALTY Murray Offside (Edwards,Tyrece) 5 yards from Jax St11 to Jax St16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+2
96.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Cam Cook for 2 yds to the JXST 18Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
96.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Pearson BaldwinSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
96.7%
Conor Donaghy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Darius Cannon at the MUR 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 6FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:363% → 4%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
96.6%
Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Darius CannonSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
96.6%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Darius Cannon for 9 yds to the JXST 45Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+18
96.5%
Jawaun Northington run for 3 yds to the JXST 42 for a 1ST down Jacksonville State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the JXST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.4%
Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Darius CannonSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
96.4%
Jordan Washington run for 2 yds to the JXST 25Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
96.3%
Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Cam BulluckSimilar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
96.2%
Jack Tannehill 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1396% → 96%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.1%
Khristian Lando run for 7 yds to the JXST 32Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+19
96.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 19 yds to the MUR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
96.2%
Khristian Lando run for 2 yds to the MUR 47Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+9
96.1%
Khristian Lando run for 9 yds to the MUR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
95.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 21 yds to the MUR 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
95.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Khristian LandoSimilar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
96.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 17 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:334% → 4%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
96.2%
Murray State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jim Ogle) to the MUR 19Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+2
96.2%
Jordan Washington run for 2 yds to the MUR 21Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+7
96.0%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Ty Brown for 7 yds to the MUR 28Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.0%
Tom O'Hara punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Caden Creel at the JXST 22Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.0%
Tom O'Hara punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Caden Creel at the JXST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 9FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 3:3996% → 96%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+35
95.8%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 35 yds to the MUR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.0%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Brock RechsteinerSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
95.9%
Cam Cook run for 8 yds to the MUR 30Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+10
95.8%
Cam Cook run for 10 yds to the MUR 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
95.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Pearson BaldwinSimilar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
95.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Gabe Glover for 7 yds to the MUR 13Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+2
95.5%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the MUR 11Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+1
95.3%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the MUR 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
95.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Chase AlexanderSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
95.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Pearson BaldwinSimilar
Q2 11:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
95.2%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Deondre JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
95.8%
Garrison Rippa 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 10DOWNS
13 plays · 45 yds · 4:484% → 6%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
95.6%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Jordan Washington for no gain to the MUR 24Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+10
95.5%
Jawaun Northington run for 10 yds to the MUR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
95.2%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Kylan Galbreath for 5 yds to the MUR 39Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-5
95.0%
PENALTY Murray False Start (Northington,Jawaun) 5 yards from Murray39 to Murray34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+15
95.2%
Jacksonville State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the MUR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
94.8%
Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 9
50
0
94.8%
Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Cam BulluckSimilar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 9
50
+11
94.9%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Jalen Richmond for 11 yds to the JXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
94.6%
Jawaun Northington run for 4 yds to the JXST 35Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+5
94.0%
Jim Ogle run for 5 yds to the JXST 30Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
94.2%
Jordan Washington run for no gain to the JXST 30Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-1
94.3%
Jordan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the JXST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:2595% → 96%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
94.9%
Cam Cook run for 8 yds to the JXST 39Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+5
95.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 5 yds to the JXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
95.1%
Cam Cook run for 7 yds to the MUR 49Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+16
95.0%
Cam Cook run for 16 yds to the MUR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
94.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 12 yds to the MUR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
94.9%
Cam Cook run for 6 yds to the MUR 15Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+3
94.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Cam Cook for 3 yds to the MUR 12Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
94.4%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the MUR 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
94.6%
Cam Cook run for 6 yds to the MUR 4Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.2%
Cam Cook run for 4 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 12INT
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:144% → 5%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
95.7%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Lucas Desjardins for 12 yds to the MUR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
95.6%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Lucas Desjardins for 21 yds to the JXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-17
95.1%
Jim Ogle pass intercepted Walker O'Steen return for 17 yds to the MUR 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:3096% → 98%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
96.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Franklin Baret Jr. for 16 yds to the MUR 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Gabe GloverSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-1
96.1%
Khristian Lando run for a loss of 1 yard to the MUR 28Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+28
98.5%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 28 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
98.4%
(00:13) Rippa,Garrison kickoff 62 yards to the Murray03 fair catch by Richmond,Jalen at Murray03 PENALTY Jax St Offside (Grayson,Amare) 5 yards from Jax St35 to Jax St30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
98.2%
(00:04) Kneel down by Murray St. at Murray13 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 15INT
15 plays · 78 yds · 4:582% → 2%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
98.3%
Jacksonville State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the MUR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.2%
Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Cam BulluckSimilar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+17
98.2%
Jawaun Northington run for 17 yds to the JXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
98.1%
Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the JXST 45Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
98.2%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Darius Cannon for no gain to the JXST 45Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+13
98.2%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Ty Brown for 13 yds to the JXST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
98.0%
Murray State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the JXST 33Similar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 11
OPP 33
+7
98.1%
Jim Ogle pass complete to LJ Green for 7 yds to the JXST 26Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+4
98.0%
Jordan Washington run for 4 yds to the JXST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
98.1%
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Ogle,Jim pass incomplete short right to Desjardins,Lucas thrown to Jax St15 PENALTY Jax St Pass Interference (Taylor,Tyrin) 13 yards from Jax St22 to Jax St09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
98.1%
Jordan Washington run for 4 yds to the JXST 5Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
98.1%
Jordan Washington run for 2 yds to the JXST 3Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
98.0%
Jim Ogle pass intercepted Trevor Woods return for 4 yds to the JXST 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
95.2%
run for a loss of 5 yards fumbled, recovered by MUR Conlee Crossno for a TD (Jack Tannehill KICK)Similar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
95.0%
PENALTY Jax St Personal Foul 15 yards from Murray35 to Murray50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 17TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:3195% → 99%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
95.4%
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the JXST 19Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+6
95.3%
Cam Cook run for 6 yds to the JXST 25Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+19
95.2%
Cam Cook run for 19 yds to the JXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
95.7%
Cam Cook run for 13 yds to the MUR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
95.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Brock RechsteinerSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+16
95.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 16 yds to the MUR 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
96.0%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 18 yds to the MUR 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
95.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 9 yds Jacksonville State Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the MUR 11Similar
Q3 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
99.0%
Cam Cook 11 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:212% → 1%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.4%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Reece Wilder for 4 yds to the MUR 29Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
98.3%
Jawaun Northington run for a loss of 1 yard to the MUR 28Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
98.6%
Murray State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jack Tannehill) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
98.6%
PENALTY Murray False Start 5 yards from Murray28 to Murray23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+4
98.6%
Tom O'Hara punt for 53 yds , Caden Creel returns for 4 yds to the JXST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 19TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:2799% → 100%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
98.9%
Khristian Lando run for 8 yds to the JXST 36Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
98.8%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 4 yds to the JXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.1%
Khristian Lando run for 15 yds to the MUR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
99.1%
Khristian Lando run for 16 yds to the MUR 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
99.2%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Michael Pettway for 11 yds to the MUR 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
99.4%
Khristian Lando run for 3 yds to the MUR 15Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+6
99.5%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 6 yds to the MUR 9Similar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+2
99.5%
Khristian Lando run for 2 yds to the MUR 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.5%
Khristian Lando run for 2 yds to the MUR 5Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Khristian Lando run for 5 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:500% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Jordan Washington for 5 yds to the MUR 30Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
99.9%
Trace Corum run for 5 yds to the MUR 35 for a 1ST down Murray State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Daniel Cole) to the MUR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Jordan Washington run for 6 yds to the MUR 31Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Trace Corum for 15 yds to the MUR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Trace CorumSimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Jordan Washington for 5 yds to the JXST 49Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Jordan Washington for 4 yds to the JXST 45Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Jim Ogle run for no gain to the JXST 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Jalen Likely run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 5
50
0
99.9%
Cade Cunningham pass incomplete to Aghogho EyafeSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 5
50
0
99.9%
Jalen Likely run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 5
50
0
99.9%
Conor Donaghy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richmond at the MUR 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
99.9%
Baxter Wright run for 3 yds to the MUR 11Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
99.9%
Baxter Wright run for 3 yds to the MUR 14Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+5
99.9%
Baxter Wright run for 5 yds to the MUR 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
99.9%
Kevin Emmanuel run for 6 yds to the MUR 25Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Baxter Wright pass incomplete to Sawyer DeermanSimilar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Baxter Wright pass incomplete to Jalen RichmondSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Tom O'Hara punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Caden Creel at the JXST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
99.9%
Jalen Likely run for 6 yds to the JXST 39Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Bryson RouillierSimilar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-1
99.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Jalen Likely for a loss of 1 yard to the JXST 38Similar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Conor Donaghy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richmond at the MUR 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:060% → 0%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
99.9%
Kevin Emmanuel run for 6 yds to the MUR 24Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Kevin Emmanuel run for 2 yds to the MUR 26Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
Baxter Wright pass complete to Trace Corum for 6 yds to the MUR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
99.9%
PENALTY Murray False Start (Kleinpeter,Brooks) 5 yards from Murray32 to Murray27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
Baxter Wright pass complete to Trace Corum for 5 yds to the MUR 32Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Kevin Emmanuel run for 3 yds to the MUR 35Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-5
99.9%
Baxter Wright sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the MUR 30Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Tom O'Hara punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Caden Creel at the JXST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 25TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
99.9%
Caden Creel run for 16 yds to the JXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Caden Creel run for 2 yds to the JXST 46Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+27
99.9%
Caden Creel run for 27 yds to the MUR 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
100.0%
Caden Creel pass complete to Colton Pitchford for 3 yds to the MUR 24Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
100.0%
Caden Creel run for no gain to the MUR 24Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+11
100.0%
Caden Creel pass complete to Lucas Farrington for 11 yds to the MUR 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
100.0%
Caden Creel run for 13 yds for a TD (Conor Donaghy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Kevin Emmanuel run for 2 yds to the MUR 27Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
100.0%
Baxter Wright pass complete to Sawyer Deerman for 3 yds to the MUR 30Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
100.0%
Baxter Wright pass complete to Sawyer Deerman for 3 yds to the MUR 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:08
Cam Cook 11 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)
+2.9
FUMBLE · Q3 9:46
run for a loss of 5 yards fumbled, recovered by MUR Conlee Crossno for a TD (Jack Tannehill KICK)
-2.8
TD · Q2 0:13
Gavin Wimsatt run for 28 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com