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JXST

Jacksonville State 10 at UCF 17

UCF
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-4.7UCF 68.4%Garrison Rippa 42 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 3 · Q3 5:28
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:28 · Garrison Rippa 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Pregame prior+16.3Home team on offense−3.4Score differential−3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 12:01: Andrew Paul run for 10 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +28.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:30: Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 39 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — UCF win probability +29.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30: Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to DJ Black — UCF win probability +13.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:14: Timeout UCF, clock 01:14 — UCF win probability +10.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:03: Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 33 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — UCF win probability +31.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9JXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 14:54UCF 4th & 1 at JXST 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    88.9%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:33UCF 4th & 15 at JXST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:33UCF 4th & 15 at JXST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:33JXST 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:25JXST 4th & 6 at UCF 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:25JXST 4th & 6 at UCF 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:06UCF 4th & 1 at JXST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:50UCF 4th & 28 at JXST 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:54JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:45UCF 4th & 4 at JXST 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    78.2%−0.8
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:30JXST 4th & 1 at UCF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%−0.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:14JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 26, tied
    Close callWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:09JXST 4th & 24 at JXST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−3.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:03UCF 4th & 6 at JXST 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−8.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:28JXST 4th & 4 at UCF 25, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.6%−0.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−8.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:18UCF 4th & 6 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:53JXST 4th & 1 at UCF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%−7.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−4.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:24JXST 4th & 6 at JXST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−2.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:08UCF 4th & 7 at JXST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−21.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:35JXST 4th & 1 at UCF 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%−10.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−16.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:16JXST 4th & 10 at JXST 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.8%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2JXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 12:01JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 9:30UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:03UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
15 plays · 32 yds · 5:2190% → 88%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
89.7%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
89.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+9
89.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
89.7%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Myles MontgomerySimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
89.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+6
89.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Marcus Burke for 6 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
89.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
89.7%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+6
89.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the JXST 45Similar
Q1 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
89.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the JXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
89.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the JXST 42Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
89.7%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Dylan WadeSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-7
89.7%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 7 yards to the JXST 49Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
88.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the JXST 19Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
88.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the JXST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2PUNT
14 plays · 37 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
88.1%
Cam Cook run for 8 yds to the JXST 27Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+4
88.0%
Cam Cook run for 4 yds to the JXST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
88.1%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 1 yd to the JXST 32Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+9
88.1%
Cam Cook run for 9 yds to the JXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
87.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 4 yds to the JXST 45Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
87.9%
Gavin Wimsatt run for no gain to the JXST 45Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
88.0%
PENALTY UCF Offside (Dunnam,Phillip) 5 yards from JSU45 to JSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 1
50
0
87.9%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 1
50
+3
88.0%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 3 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
87.9%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
87.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Franklin Baret Jr. for 8 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-5
87.9%
PENALTY JSU False Start (Griffin,Cameron) 5 yards from UCF39 to UCF44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
87.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Gabe GloverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3FUMBLE
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:5486% → 86%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
86.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q1 3:43
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
85.9%
Conor Donaghy punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+13
86.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 13 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
86.1%
Cam Fancher run for 2 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+25
86.1%
Cam Fancher run for 25 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
86.6%
Myles Montgomery run for 10 yds to the JXST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
86.0%
Duane Thomas Jr. run for a loss of 7 yards to the JXST 49 Duane Thomas Jr. fumbled, recovered by JXST Thaxton GallagherSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
86.0%
Duane Thomas Jr. run for a loss of 7 yards to the JXST 49 Duane Thomas Jr. fumbled, recovered by JXST Thaxton GallagherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2416% → 16%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
84.0%
Gavin Wimsatt run for no gain to the JXST 49Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
83.7%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
50
+3
83.9%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 3 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 14:25
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
83.9%
Cade Backe punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Duane Thomas Jr. at the UCF 12Similar
Q2 14:25
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
83.9%
Cade Backe punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Duane Thomas Jr. at the UCF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
22 plays · 50 yds · 9:3585% → 80%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
84.6%
Duane Thomas Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
84.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 4 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 14
OWN 8
+21
84.1%
Cam Fancher run for 21 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
84.7%
Jaden Nixon run for 1 yd to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+20
84.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
50
+1
85.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Kylan Fox for 1 yd to the JXST 49Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+9
85.5%
Cam Fancher run for 9 yds to the UCF 42 Cam Fancher fumbled, recovered by UCF Duane Thomas Jr. UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 18
OWN 42
+15
82.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fancher,Cam sacked for loss of 14 yards to the UCF28 (Fegans,Tre'Quon), fumble by Fancher,Cam recovered by JSU Oyebadejo,Emmanuel at UCF28 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:45 PENALTY JSU Targeting (Fegans,Tre'Quon) 15 yards from UCF42 to JSU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
84.3%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the JXST 42Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+6
84.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the JXST 36Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+2
83.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the JXST 34Similar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
83.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the JXST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
84.0%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 3 yds to the JXST 29Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-10
83.6%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Montgomery,Myles rush left for 29 yards gain to the JSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 07:47 PENALTY UCF Holding (Brooks,Jabari) 10 yards from JSU29 to JSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+13
82.6%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 13 yds to the JXST 26Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+6
82.9%
Tayven Jackson run for 6 yds to the JXST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
83.1%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Montgomery,Myles rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JSU19 (O'Steen,Walker; Franklin, Jr.,Travis) PENALTY UCF Chop Block (Kinnie,Cameron) 15 yards from JSU20 to JSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+8
82.2%
Tayven Jackson run for 8 yds to the JXST 43 Tayven Jackson fumbled, recovered by UCF Paul RubeltSimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 33
OPP 43
+5
81.7%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 5 yds to the JXST 38Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 28
OPP 38
0
81.0%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Myles MontgomerySimilar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 28
OPP 38
0
79.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 28
OPP 38
0
79.8%
Anthony Venneri punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5622% → 22%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
78.5%
(04:50) PENALTY JSU False Start (Jackson,Reggie) 5 yards from JSU20 to JSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-1
78.5%
Andrew Paul run for a loss of 1 yard to the JXST 14Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+7
78.4%
Cam Cook run for 7 yds to the JXST 21Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+4
78.6%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Cam Cook for 4 yds to the JXST 25Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+21
78.5%
Cade Backe punt for 42 yds , Antione Jackson returns for 21 yds to the JXST 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0081% → 80%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
81.3%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 6 yds to the JXST 40Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
81.2%
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the JXST 40Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
80.7%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Waden CharlesSimilar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
79.5%
Anthony Venneri punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8MISSED FG
14 plays · 77 yds · 1:3823% → 30%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
76.8%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 7 yds to the JXST 13Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+15
76.4%
UCF Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Horace Lockett) to the JXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
75.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Cam Cook for 18 yds to the JXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
73.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Pearson BaldwinSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
73.8%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Deondre Johnson for 9 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
72.2%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Brock RechsteinerSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+6
73.7%
Cam Cook run for 6 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
71.9%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+14
71.8%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 14 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
70.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for 5 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+35
70.0%
Garrison Rippa 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Keli LawsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 16 yds · 3:4225% → 25%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
75.4%
PENALTY JSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from JSU21 to JSU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+2
75.5%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the JXST 18Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 13
OWN 18
0
75.5%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Deondre JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:21
3RD & 13
OWN 18
+5
76.3%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Wimsatt,Gavin pass complete short middle to Coombs,Caleb caught at JSU30, for 12 yards to the JSU30 (Dunnam,Phillip) PENALTY UCF Offside (Lawrence,Malachi) 5 yards from JSU18 to JSU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+3
75.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Cam Cook for 3 yds to the JXST 26Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+25
75.9%
Shane Payton Hodges run for 25 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
71.2%
Khristian Lando run for no gain to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
71.5%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Gabe GloverSimilar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-9
72.7%
Gavin Wimsatt sacked by Horace Lockett for a loss of 9 yards to the JXST 42Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 19
OWN 42
-5
74.8%
PENALTY JSU False Start (Thompson,Aidan) 5 yards from JSU42 to JSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 24
OWN 37
0
75.0%
Cade Backe punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10FG
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:5275% → 79%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+64
75.4%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 64 yds to the JXST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
78.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 7 yds to the JXST 8Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+4
78.6%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the JXST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
78.4%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the JXST 3Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
78.1%
Tayven Jackson run for 2 yds to the JXST 1Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
76.9%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Smith,Keegan) 5 yards from JSU01 to JSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
76.8%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
79.4%
Anthony Venneri 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:2823% → 32%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
77.4%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 13 yds to the JXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
75.9%
Cam Cook run for 4 yds to the JXST 42Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
74.6%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 2 yds to the JXST 44Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+7
74.6%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 7 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
73.3%
Caden Creel pass complete to Cam Cook for 18 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
72.1%
Cam Cook run for 6 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
71.8%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Caden CreelSimilar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
73.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Brock RechsteinerSimilar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
68.4%
Garrison Rippa 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:4672% → 70%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
72.1%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
72.7%
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
71.7%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Marcus Burke for 10 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
73.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 9 yds to the JXST 45Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
74.6%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
74.0%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for no gain to the JXST 45Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-5
71.8%
(02:35) PENALTY UCF False Start (Black,DJ) 5 yards from JSU45 to JSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 6
50
0
69.9%
Anthony Venneri punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Gabe Glover at the JXST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 5:1133% → 71%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
66.6%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 5 yds to the JXST 21Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+24
66.2%
Cam Cook run for 24 yds to the JXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
62.6%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Harrison HamsleySimilar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-10
63.5%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Cook,Cam rush right for 5 yards gain to the JSU50 (Bell,DJ) PENALTY JSU Holding (Grayson,Amare) 10 yards from JSU45 to JSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 20
OWN 35
-1
65.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for a loss of 1 yard to the JXST 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 21
OWN 34
+20
66.8%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 20 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+1
63.2%
Andrew Paul run for 1 yd to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
59.9%
Caden Creel run for 14 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
57.6%
Brock Rechsteiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+6
58.0%
Andrew Paul run for 6 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+17
58.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Andrew Paul for 17 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
29.5%
Andrew Paul run for 10 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:1839% → 70%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
39.0%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+17
38.5%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 17 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
41.8%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 2 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-7
41.4%
Tayven Jackson sacked by Chase Alexander for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+18
33.4%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Waden Charles for 18 yds to the JXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
41.0%
Tayven Jackson run for 7 yds to the JXST 39Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+39
70.2%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 39 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4640% → 38%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
60.2%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Franklin Baret Jr. for 6 yds to the JXST 28Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-2
58.7%
Cam Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the JXST 26Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
60.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for no gain to the JXST 26Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
62.1%
Cade Backe punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 3:0163% → 63%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
63.4%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Marcus Burke for 27 yds to the JXST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
68.2%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 15 yds to the JXST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
69.3%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the JXST 25Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-10
69.0%
Tayven Jackson sacked by Gharin Stansbury for a loss of 10 yards to the JXST 35Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+10
62.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 10 yds to the JXST 25Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
62.6%
Anthony Venneri 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:2546% → 53%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.3%
Andrew Paul run for 9 yds to the JXST 34Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
50.3%
Gavin Wimsatt sacked by Rodney Lora for a loss of 5 yards to the JXST 29Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+26
54.2%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Deondre Johnson for 26 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
46.5%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
45.0%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Brock RechsteinerSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+5
46.8%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Wimsatt,Gavin pass incomplete short right to Johnson,Deondre thrown to UCF35 broken up by Kelly,Nyjalik PENALTY UCF Offside (Kelly,Nyjalik) 5 yards from UCF44 to UCF39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+3
44.8%
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
47.3%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the UCF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 0:2761% → 96%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
60.6%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to DJ BlackSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
59.7%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Dylan WadeSimilar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+30
56.4%
Tayven Jackson run for 15 yds to the JXST 49 for a 1ST down Jacksonville State Penalty, Targeting (Trevor Woods) to the JXST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
66.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the JXST 32Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-1
66.6%
Myles Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the JXST 33Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+33
95.8%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 33 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 19INT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:3512% → 11%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for 6 yds to the JXST 31Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
86.8%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
88.0%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Wimsatt,Gavin pass incomplete short right to Rechsteiner,Brock thrown to JSU36 PENALTY UCF Targeting (Carter,Lewis) 15 yards from JSU31 to JSU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
85.6%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Deondre JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
86.0%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Deondre JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
86.6%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
88.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass intercepted Jayden Bellamy return for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
94.4%
(00:16) Kneel down by UCF at UCF42 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:03
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 33 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
+31.5
TD · Q4 9:30
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 39 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
+29.2
TD · Q4 12:01
Andrew Paul run for 10 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
-28.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com