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JXST

Jacksonville State 30 at UTEP 27

UTEP
2025 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-1.8UTEP 54.0%(00:53) #37 G.Rippa field goal attemptfrom 30 yards GOOD (H: #29 C.Backe,LS: #50 C.Marszalek), clock 00:53AWAY 10 - HOME 7 · Q1 0:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:53 · (00:53) #37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #29 C.Backe, LS: #50 C.Marszalek), clock 00:53
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 45Home team on offense−1.9Pregame prior+4.4Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:12: Caleb Nix 93 Yd Interception Return (Garrison Rippa Kick) — JXST win probability +11.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:09: Skyler Locklear 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — UTEP win probability +10.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:38: Skyler Locklear 10 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick) — UTEP win probability +22.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:15: Eric Willis III 19 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick) — JXST win probability +28.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:53: Garrison Rippa 45 Yd Field Goal — JXST win probability +30.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 11 of 11JXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:36UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:05UTEP 4th & 12 at UTEP 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:53JXST 4th & 12 at UTEP 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:02UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:19JXST 4th & 11 at JXST 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:51UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:19UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.8%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:06UTEP 4th & 10 at JXST 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:39JXST 4th & 10 at UTEP 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:16JXST 4th & 7 at JXST 42, up 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.9%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:58UTEP 4th & 2 at JXST 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−3.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−4.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:43UTEP 4th & 3 at JXST 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−3.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:17UTEP 4th & 2 at JXST 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−1.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−12.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:13JXST 4th & 24 at JXST 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−6.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:32UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−3.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:00JXST 4th & 10 at JXST 47, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%−2.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:53JXST 4th & 8 at UTEP 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−6.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−29.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:27UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.3%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 3JXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:56UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:12JXST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:09UTEP Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    45.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:38UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1856% → 56%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.8%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTEP28 (#92 T.Carter; #59 M.Sanders)Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
55.8%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush left for 10 yards gain to the UTEP38 (#3 T.Fegans), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
55.9%
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short middle to #89 J.Schuchts caught at UTEP42, for 6 yards to the UTEP44 (#7 I.Walker)Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-5
56.0%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Odom rush right for 5 yards loss to the UTEP39 (#59 M.Sanders; #1 C.Nix)Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-2
55.9%
(13:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UTEP37 (#59 M.Sanders)Similar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
55.8%
(12:43) #42 N.Botsford punt 51 yards to the Jax St12, out of bounds at Jax St12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2TD
4 plays · 88 yds · 1:0844% → 46%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
56.0%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush right for 2 yards gain to the Jax St14 (#12 D.Thompson)Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+6
56.1%
(11:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Jax St20 (#48 M.Davey)Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+3
56.2%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #9 C.Coombs caught at Jax St18, for 3 yards to the Jax St23 (#2 X.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
54.5%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete deep right to #11 D.Johnson caught at Jax St50, for 77 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:07, 1ST DOWN #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Backe, LS: #50 C.Marszalek)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
56.1%
(11:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete deep left to #23 W.Davis Jr. caught at Jax St42, for 75 yards to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:56, 1ST DOWN #91 C.Arreola kick attempt good (H: #11 C.McConnell, LS: #39 J.Hancock)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4INT
11 plays · 25 yds · 3:5044% → 44%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.0%
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush left for 5 yards gain to the Jax St30 (#6 E.Taylor)Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
55.9%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush left for 4 yards gain to the Jax St34 (#5 S.Barnes)Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
55.9%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 6 yards gain to the Jax St40 (#48 M.Davey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
55.8%
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush right for 5 yards gain to the Jax St45 (#4 N.Campbell; #48 M.Davey)Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
55.5%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Jax St47 (#48 M.Davey)Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+11
55.6%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 11 yards gain to the UTEP42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
55.3%
(07:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep right to #3 B.Rechsteiner thrown to UTEP03Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-3
55.3%
(07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush left for 3 yards loss to the UTEP45 (#10 J.Wilson; #90 A.Coker)Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+5
55.9%
PENALTY Jax St False Start 5 yards from UTEP45 to UTEP50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 18
50
0
56.0%
(07:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass intercepted by #5 S.Barnes at UTEP29, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4456% → 56%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
56.3%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #6 K.Odom caught at UTEP29, for 0 yards to the UTEP29 (#13 J.Cruz; #40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
56.2%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTEP30 (#59 M.Sanders)Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-3
55.8%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush right for 3 yards loss to the UTEP27 (#91 G.Stansbury)Similar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
55.5%
(05:08) #42 N.Botsford punt 38 yards to the Jax St35, out of bounds at Jax St35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 4:0444% → 46%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
56.0%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush right for 10 yards gain to the Jax St45 (#2 X.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
55.4%
(04:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush left for 8 yards gain to the UTEP47 (#3 S.Bowser)Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+4
54.9%
(04:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush left for 4 yards gain to the UTEP43 (#4 N.Campbell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
55.0%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #81 G.Glover caught at UTEP44, for 5 yards to the UTEP38 (#7 K.Johnson)Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+11
54.9%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #81 G.Glover caught at UTEP32, for 11 yards to the UTEP27 (#4 N.Campbell; #48 M.Davey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
54.5%
(02:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left to #81 G.Glover thrown to UTEP19Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
54.2%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #9 C.Coombs caught at UTEP14, for 13 yards to the UTEP14, out of bounds at UTEP14, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
54.0%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #9 C.Coombs caught at UTEP11, for 9 yards to the UTEP05 (#22 L.Russell), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+3
53.9%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTEP02 (#48 M.Davey; #10 J.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+10
53.4%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush right for 2 yards gain to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:09 PENALTY Jax St Holding 10 yards from UTEP02 to UTEP12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
0
53.6%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #81 G.Glover thrown to UTEP00Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
53.6%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #4 C.Cook thrown to UTEP07Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
54.2%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left thrown to UTEP15Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
54.0%
(00:53) #37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #29 C.Backe, LS: #50 C.Marszalek), clock 00:53Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4554% → 53%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.0%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete deep right to #23 W.Davis Jr. thrown to UTEP47 QB hurried by #59 M.SandersSimilar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.8%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 H.Wilson rush right for 1 yard gain to the UTEP26 (#12 M.Jones)Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
53.1%
(00:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #6 K.Odom thrown to UTEP28 QB hurried by #40 W.O'SteenSimilar
Q1 0:02
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
52.8%
(00:02) #42 N.Botsford punt 70 yards to the Jax St04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:3446% → 46%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
53.9%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Jax St07 (#10 J.Wilson; #99 C.Gustafson)Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+8
54.0%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #3 B.Rechsteiner caught at Jax St11, for 8 yards to the Jax St15 (#4 N.Campbell; #2 X.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
53.6%
(13:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 7 yards gain to the Jax St22 (#6 E.Taylor)Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+19
52.9%
(13:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #84 F.Baret Jr. caught at Jax St33, for 19 yards to the Jax St41 (#2 X.Smith; #18 J.Content), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
51.9%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 5 yards gain to the Jax St46 (#90 A.Coker)Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
51.8%
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #13 P.Baldwin thrown to UTEP37 QB hurried by #6 E.TaylorSimilar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-6
52.0%
(12:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #4 C.Cook caught at Jax St38, for 6 yards loss to the Jax St40 (#18 J.Content)Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
54.1%
(11:23) #87 C.Donaghy punt 23 yards to the UTEP37, out of bounds at UTEP37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9INT TD
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:5954% → 45%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
54.0%
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Taylor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTEP38 (#91 G.Stansbury)Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
54.0%
(10:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush left for 6 yards gain to the UTEP44 (#12 M.Jones; #44 K.Perry)Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
54.5%
(10:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete deep right to #6 K.Odom thrown to Jax St20Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+3
53.3%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTEP47 (#99 E.Oyebadejo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
54.9%
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush right for 4 yards gain to the Jax St49 (#99 E.Oyebadejo), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+19
55.2%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #23 W.Davis Jr. caught at Jax St30, for 19 yards to the Jax St30, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
56.1%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 H.Wilson rush left for 1 yard loss to the Jax St31 (#93 J.Campbell) PENALTY Jax St Holding 10 yards from Jax St30 to Jax St20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-93
45.1%
Caleb Nix 93 Yd Interception Return (Garrison Rippa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 4:5642% → 53%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
42.2%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UTEP38 (#16 Q.Hood; #31 M.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
42.8%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.McCoy rush right for 4 yards gain to the UTEP42 (#16 Q.Hood; #3 T.Fegans)Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
42.8%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete deep right to #6 K.Odom thrown to Jax St33Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+5
41.9%
(07:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #6 K.Odom caught at UTEP47, for 5 yards to the UTEP47 (#2 T.Franklin, Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
41.9%
(06:27) No Huddle #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTEP48 (#92 T.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
42.3%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush left for 12 yards gain to the Jax St40 (#1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
42.7%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete deep right to #6 K.Odom thrown to Jax St10 QB hurried by #40 W.O'SteenSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
42.4%
(05:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #19 E.Willis III thrown to Jax St38Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
39.9%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #6 K.Odom thrown to Jax St38 QB hurried by #91 G.StansburySimilar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+34
38.7%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete deep right to #23 W.Davis Jr. caught at Jax St06, for 34 yards to the Jax St06, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
41.4%
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.McCoy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Jax St05 (#59 M.Sanders; #12 M.Jones)Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
41.1%
(04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #89 J.Schuchts thrown to Jax St00 QB hurried by #7 I.WalkerSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
40.1%
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #89 J.Schuchts thrown to Jax St00 PENALTY Jax St Holding 2 yards from Jax St05 to Jax St03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
41.0%
(04:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Jax St02 (#49 T.Gallagher)Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
41.8%
(03:28) No Huddle #92 T.Scott rush middle for 0 yards to the Jax St02 (#99 E.Oyebadejo) PENALTY Jax St Offside 1 yard from Jax St02 to Jax St01. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.8%
(03:17) No Huddle #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 0 yards to the Jax St01 (#99 E.Oyebadejo) PENALTY Jax St Offside. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.7%
Skyler Locklear 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:0952% → 66%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
47.6%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush right for 51 yards gain to the UTEP24 (#9 M.Blocker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+14
44.9%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #9 C.Coombs caught at UTEP31, for 14 yards to the UTEP15 (#2 X.Smith; #0 U.Ezeani)Similar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 20
OPP 29
0
44.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep left to #11 D.Johnson thrown to UTEP00Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 6
OPP 15
-4
44.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush right for 4 yards loss to the UTEP19 (#48 M.Davey)Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
37.8%
Garrison Rippa 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
34.3%
PENALTY Jax St Delay Of Game 5 yards from UTEP24 to UTEP29. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
42.9%
Kneel down by #9 S.Locklear at UTEP23 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:4460% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
40.4%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #9 C.Coombs thrown to Jax St22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
40.9%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #13 P.Baldwin caught at Jax St24, for 7 yards to the Jax St24 (#48 M.Davey) PENALTY UTEP Face Mask (#48 M.Davey) 15 yards from Jax St24 to Jax St39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
38.3%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #4 C.Cook caught at Jax St39, for 0 yards to the Jax St39 (#2 X.Smith)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
38.6%
Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush right for 5 yards loss to the Jax St34 (#15 K.Lowe)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+8
41.6%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 8 yards gain to the Jax St42 (#5 S.Barnes)Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+5
39.5%
Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush left for 5 yards gain to the Jax St47 (#47 A.Szczesniak), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14DOWNS
15 plays · 49 yds · 15:1341% → 32%
Q3 13:11
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+13
41.0%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short middle to #89 J.Schuchts caught at UTEP39, for 13 yards to the UTEP45 (#43 T.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+5
44.4%
(00:16) PENALTY Jax St Offside (#44 K.Perry) 5 yards from Jax St49 to Jax St44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
36.3%
(04:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UTEP23 (#1 C.Nix; #92 T.Carter)Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+1
37.1%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.McCoy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTEP24 (#92 T.Carter; #40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
35.8%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTEP26 (#49 T.Gallagher; #1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
36.5%
(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #21 M.Taylor thrown to UTEP27Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
35.8%
(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Taylor rush right for 6 yards gain to the UTEP32 (#5 T.Taylor), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
38.8%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTEP47 (#16 Q.Hood)Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
39.1%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Jax St49 (#91 G.Stansbury)Similar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
37.6%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Jax St43 (#49 T.Gallagher)Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+8
37.3%
(14:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush right for 8 yards gain to the Jax St35 (#92 T.Carter)Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 1
OPP 35
-1
36.2%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #23 W.Davis Jr. caught at Jax St36, for 1 yard loss to the Jax St36 (#59 M.Sanders)Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
32.2%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #89 J.Schuchts thrown to Jax St40 QB hurried by #99 E.Oyebadejo and #92 T.Carter, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 5:3844% → 63%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
43.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #6 K.Odom caught at Jax St47, for 8 yards to the Jax St39 fumbled by #6 K.Odom at UTEP47 forced by #43 T.Woods, out of bounds at Jax St39Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-2
43.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Odom rush left for 2 yards loss to the Jax St41 (#3 T.Fegans)Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+1
42.5%
(11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #19 E.Willis III caught at Jax St40, for 1 yard to the Jax St40, out of bounds at Jax St40Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+4
40.8%
(10:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short middle to #89 J.Schuchts caught at Jax St37, for 4 yards to the Jax St36 (#1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
42.9%
(10:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Jax St33 (#40 W.O'Steen; #92 T.Carter)Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+13
44.2%
(09:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush left for 13 yards gain to the Jax St20 (#43 T.Woods), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
44.0%
(09:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush left for 0 yards to the Jax St20 (#44 K.Perry; #59 M.Sanders)Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
43.8%
(08:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Taylor rush left for 2 yards gain to the Jax St18 (#40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+6
41.6%
(08:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #18 R.Campbell caught at Jax St17, for 6 yards to the Jax St12 (#12 M.Jones)Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+2
39.6%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush right for 2 yards gain to the Jax St10 (#49 T.Gallagher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
62.5%
Skyler Locklear 10 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 2:1333% → 30%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.4%
(06:31) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #3 B.Rechsteiner caught at Jax St27, for 8 yards to the Jax St33 (#5 S.Barnes)Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
64.6%
(06:05) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #9 C.Coombs caught at Jax St36, for 3 yards to the Jax St36 (#22 L.Russell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
66.2%
(05:40) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short middle to #3 B.Rechsteiner thrown to UTEP49 broken up by #22 L.RussellSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
66.9%
(05:37) Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush left for 10 yards gain to the Jax St46 (#7 K.Johnson; #22 L.Russell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
64.3%
(05:15) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #81 G.Glover thrown to UTEP40Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
65.7%
(05:11) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 4 yards gain to the Jax St50, out of bounds at Jax St50 PENALTY Jax St Targeting (#77 R.Jackson) 15 yards from Jax St46 to Jax St31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 25
OWN 31
+1
68.1%
(04:46) Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush left for 1 yard gain to the Jax St32 (#19 A.Hall; #12 D.Thompson)Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 24
OWN 32
0
69.6%
(04:24) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #4 C.Cook thrown to Jax St37Similar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 24
OWN 32
+56
70.2%
(04:13) #87 C.Donaghy punt 56 yards to the UTEP12 muffed by #19 E.Willis III at UTEP12 recovered by UTEP #19 E.Willis III at UTEP12 #19 E.Willis III return 18 yards to the UTEP30 (#7 I.Walker) PENALTY UTEP Personal Foul 15 yards from UTEP30 to UTEP15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:3832% → 34%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
68.1%
(12:43) Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush right for 7 yards gain to the Jax St43 (#9 M.Blocker)Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
66.0%
(12:25) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 8 yards gain to the UTEP49 (#22 L.Russell; #48 M.Davey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
66.5%
(11:49) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #11 D.Johnson thrown to UTEP40 QB hurried by #7 K.JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
68.1%
(11:48) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 6 yards gain to the UTEP43 (#19 A.Hall; #48 M.Davey)Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+5
67.3%
PENALTY Jax St False Start (#50 L.Mrachkovskiy) 5 yards from UTEP43 to UTEP48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+10
69.0%
(10:56) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #3 B.Rechsteiner caught at UTEP38, for 10 yards to the UTEP38 (#9 M.Blocker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
66.8%
(10:35) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #3 B.Rechsteiner thrown to UTEP25 QB hurried by #48 M.DaveySimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.0%
Cam Cook 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2783% → 81%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
82.8%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Odom rush right for 6 yards gain to the UTEP31 (#3 T.Fegans) PENALTY UTEP Holding (#19 E.Willis III) 10 yards from UTEP25 to UTEP15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
82.7%
(09:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #23 W.Davis Jr. thrown to UTEP16Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+11
82.4%
(09:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short middle to #6 K.Odom caught at UTEP20, for 11 yards to the UTEP26 (#3 T.Fegans)Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
82.0%
(08:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #6 K.Odom thrown to UTEP41Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
81.4%
(08:39) #42 N.Botsford punt 57 yards to the Jax St17 PENALTY Jax St Personal Foul (#3 T.Fegans) 8 yards from Jax St17 to Jax St09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 4:2324% → 20%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
75.8%
(08:30) Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush right for 5 yards gain to the Jax St14 (#2 X.Smith; #12 D.Thompson)Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+6
75.7%
(07:44) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 6 yards gain to the Jax St20 (#2 X.Smith; #3 S.Bowser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
75.9%
(07:05) Shotgun #0 A.Paul rush left for 8 yards gain to the Jax St28 (#10 J.Wilson)Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+19
73.9%
(06:22) Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 19 yards gain to the Jax St47 (#6 E.Taylor; #3 S.Bowser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
72.8%
(05:37) Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush right for 0 yards to the Jax St47 (#48 M.Davey)Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
74.2%
(04:55) Shotgun #0 A.Paul rush right for 0 yards to the Jax St47 (#10 J.Wilson; #6 E.Taylor)Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
76.5%
(04:15) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep left to #3 B.Rechsteiner thrown to UTEP32Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
80.5%
(04:07) #87 C.Donaghy punt 27 yards to the UTEP26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:3889% → 65%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
89.1%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush right for 2 yards gain to the UTEP28 (#13 J.Cruz), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+13
89.1%
(03:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush right for 13 yards gain to the UTEP41 (#12 M.Jones; #5 T.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+39
92.8%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete deep left to #23 W.Davis Jr. caught at Jax St23, for 39 yards to the Jax St20 (#43 T.Woods; #5 T.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
93.7%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Jax St19 (#49 T.Gallagher)Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+19
65.3%
Eric Willis III 19 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 21FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 1:1451% → 89%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.3%
(02:14) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 3 yards gain to the Jax St28 (#48 M.Davey; #0 U.Ezeani)Similar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
41.5%
(01:50) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short middle thrown to UTEP30 QB hurried by #12 D.Thompson PENALTY UTEP Holding (#2 X.Smith) 10 yards from UTEP41 to UTEP31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+31
48.5%
(01:58) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 31 yards gain to the UTEP41 (#5 S.Barnes), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
38.8%
(01:42) Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTEP29 (#6 E.Taylor)Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
38.0%
(01:00) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 0 yards to the UTEP29 (#90 A.Coker; #6 E.Taylor)Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
41.4%
(00:55) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left to #9 C.Coombs thrown to UTEP31Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+45
10.7%
Garrison Rippa 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:1723% → 16%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.3%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #1 A.Emory caught at UTEP26, for 5 yards to the UTEP30 (#40 W.O'Steen), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
23.9%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #6 K.Odom thrown to UTEP40Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
22.8%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #6 K.Odom thrown to UTEP35Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
15.5%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete deep right to #19 E.Willis III thrown to Jax St15 broken up by #43 T.Woods, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
5.0%
(00:23) Kneel down by #12 C.Creel at UTEP32 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:53
Garrison Rippa 45 Yd Field Goal
-30.7
TD · Q4 2:15
Eric Willis III 19 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)
-28.5
TD · Q3 6:38
Skyler Locklear 10 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)
+22.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com