JXST
Jacksonville State 29 at Sam Houston 27
SHSU2025 · Week 7 · Oct 10, 2025 · BBVA Compass Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · SHSU
modelSHSU aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey play
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SHSU · Drive 1PUNT · 6 plays · -1 yds
Q1 15:00
Garrison Rippa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
27.4%
0.0
Q1 15:00
Hunter Watson pass complete to Malik Phillips for 1 yd to the SHSU 26
29.8%
+2.4
Q1 15:00
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the SHSU 29
29.8%
0.0
Q1 15:00
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Malik Phillips
29.8%
0.0
Q1 15:00
PENALTY SAM False Start (O'Neill,Grady) 5 yards from SAM29 to SAM24. NO PLAY.
29.5%
-0.3
Q1 13:32
Curtis Gerrand punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Michael Pettway at the JXST 41
29.7%
+0.2
JXST · Drive 2TD · 10 plays · 59 yds
Q1 13:32
Cam Cook run for no gain to the JXST 41
25.8%
-3.9
Q1 13:32
Caden Creel run for 18 yds to the SHSU 41 for a 1ST down
25.8%
0.0
Q1 13:32
Caden Creel run for 2 yds to the SHSU 39
24.8%
-0.9
Q1 13:32
Cam Cook run for 4 yds to the SHSU 35
24.8%
0.0
Q1 13:32
Caden Creel run for 2 yds to the SHSU 33 Caden Creel fumbled, recovered by JXST Caden Creel
24.8%
0.0
Q1 13:32
Caden Creel run for 6 yds to the SHSU 27 for a 1ST down
25.4%
+0.6
Q1 13:32
Cam Cook run for no gain to the SHSU 27
24.8%
-0.6
Q1 13:32
Cam Cook run for 11 yds to the SHSU 16 for a 1ST down
24.8%
0.0
Q1 13:32
Caden Creel pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 2 yds to the SHSU 14 for a 1ST down Sam Houston Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (Cecil Powell) to the SHSU 7 for a 1ST down
24.8%
0.0
Q1 8:57
Caden Creel run for 7 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
14.4%
-10.4
SHSU · Drive 3PUNT · 5 plays · -7 yds
Q1 8:51
Garrison Rippa kickoff for 65 yds , Malik Phillips return for 22 yds to the SHSU 22
15.3%
+0.9
Q1 8:51
Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the SHSU 22
18.1%
+2.8
Q1 8:51
Hunter Watson sacked by Isaac Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the SHSU 15
18.1%
0.0
Q1 8:51
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Malik Phillips
18.1%
0.0
Q1 7:31
Curtis Gerrand punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Michael Pettway at the JXST 48
18.4%
+0.3
JXST · Drive 4MISSED FG · 9 plays · 34 yds
Q1 7:31
Caden Creel run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
14.7%
-3.7
Q1 7:31
Khristian Lando run for 2 yds to the SHSU 48
14.7%
0.0
Q1 7:31
Caden Creel pass complete to Khristian Lando for 16 yds to the SHSU 32 for a 1ST down
14.7%
0.0
Q1 7:31
Caden Creel run for 4 yds to the SHSU 28
14.6%
-0.1
Q1 7:31
Khristian Lando run for 7 yds to the SHSU 21 for a 1ST down
14.6%
0.0
Q1 7:31
Khristian Lando run for 2 yds to the SHSU 19
14.6%
0.0
Q1 7:31
Khristian Lando run for no gain to the SHSU 19
14.6%
0.0
Q1 7:31
Caden Creel pass complete to Cam Cook for 1 yd to the SHSU 18
14.6%
0.0
Q1 3:09
Garrison Rippa 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Emon Allen
15.4%
+0.7
SHSU · Drive 5PUNT · 7 plays · 37 yds
Q1 3:09
Hunter Watson pass complete to Chris Reed for 24 yds to the SHSU 44 for a 1ST down
18.7%
+3.3
Q1 3:09
Hunter Watson pass complete to Landan Brown for no gain to the SHSU 44
19.1%
+0.4
Q1 3:09
No Huddle-Shotgun Watson,Hunter pass incomplete short middle to Burk,Dylan thrown to SAM50 broken up by Campbell,Jawaun PENALTY JSU Holding (Jones,Malcolm) 10 yards from SAM44 to JSU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
19.1%
0.0
Q1 3:09
Hunter Watson sacked by Emmanuel Oyebadejo for a loss of 1 yard to the JXST 47
19.9%
+0.8
Q1 3:09
Hunter Watson run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line
19.9%
0.0
Q1 3:09
Hunter Watson run for 7 yds to the JXST 43
19.4%
-0.6
Q1 0:06
Curtis Gerrand punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the JXST 10
20.1%
+0.7
JXST · Drive 6FG · 5 plays · 77 yds
Q1 0:00
Cam Cook run for 73 yds to the SHSU 17 for a 1ST down
16.2%
-3.9
Q2 15:00
Caden Creel run for 3 yds to the SHSU 14
15.2%
-1.0
Q2 15:00
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the SHSU 13
15.2%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Caden Creel pass incomplete to Cam Cook
15.2%
0.0
Q2 14:01
Garrison Rippa 30 yd FG GOOD
13.9%
-1.3
SHSU · Drive 7PUNT · 10 plays · 17 yds
Q2 13:53
Garrison Rippa kickoff for 61 yds , Malik Phillips return for 29 yds to the SHSU 33
14.5%
+0.6
Q2 13:53
Hunter Watson pass complete to Landan Brown for 3 yds to the SHSU 36
16.5%
+2.0
Q2 13:53
Hunter Watson pass complete to Landan Brown for 11 yds to the SHSU 47 for a 1ST down
16.5%
0.0
Q2 13:53
Landan Brown run for 5 yds to the JXST 48
17.1%
+0.6
Q2 13:53
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Chris Reed
17.5%
+0.4
Q2 13:53
Alton McCaskill run for 7 yds to the JXST 41 for a 1ST down
17.3%
-0.1
Q2 13:53
Hunter Watson sacked by Walker O'Steen for a loss of 5 yards to the JXST 46
18.1%
+0.8
Q2 13:53
Hunter Watson sacked by Khurtiss Perry for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line
17.5%
-0.6
Q2 13:53
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Alton McCaskill
17.1%
-0.3
Q2 10:25
Curtis Gerrand punt for 49 yds
17.8%
+0.7
JXST · Drive 8FUMBLE · 1 play · 0 yds
Q2 10:17
Caden Creel run for no gain to the JXST 1 Caden Creel fumbled, recovered by SHSU Dean Ford
15.0%
-2.9
SHSU · Drive 9TD · 1 play · 1 yds
Q2 10:13
Landan Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
29.0%
+14.0
JXST · Drive 10TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q2 10:13
Christian Pavon kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
26.7%
-2.3
Q2 10:13
Cam Cook run for 7 yds to the JXST 32
24.5%
-2.1
Q2 10:13
Cam Cook run for 10 yds to the JXST 42 for a 1ST down
24.5%
0.0
Q2 10:13
Caden Creel pass complete to Michael Pettway for 4 yds to the JXST 46
23.7%
-0.9
Q2 10:13
Caden Creel run for 2 yds to the JXST 48
23.1%
-0.6
Q2 10:13
Cam Cook run for 27 yds to the SHSU 25 for a 1ST down
23.1%
0.0
Q2 10:13
Caden Creel run for 15 yds to the SHSU 10 for a 1ST down
23.0%
-0.1
Q2 10:13
Cam Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 11
23.0%
0.0
Q2 10:13
No Huddle-Shotgun Creel,Caden pass incomplete short left to Rechsteiner,Brock thrown to SAM00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SAM Pass Interference (Scott,Jaidan) 9 yards from SAM11 to SAM02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
23.0%
0.0
Q2 6:15
Cam Cook run for 2 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
13.0%
-10.0
SHSU · Drive 11TD · 5 plays · 75 yds
Q2 6:15
Garrison Rippa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
14.0%
+1.0
Q2 6:15
Hunter Watson run for 37 yds to the JXST 38 for a 1ST down
14.6%
+0.6
Q2 6:15
Landan Brown run for 14 yds to the JXST 24 for a 1ST down
16.1%
+1.6
Q2 6:15
Hunter Watson run for 20 yds to the JXST 4 for a 1ST down
16.1%
0.0
Q2 4:28
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 4 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
28.6%
+12.5
JXST · Drive 12PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q2 4:28
Christian Pavon kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
26.3%
-2.3
Q2 4:28
Cam Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the JXST 22
24.1%
-2.2
Q2 4:28
Cam Cook run for 11 yds to the JXST 33
24.1%
0.0
Q2 4:28
Caden Creel run for a loss of 1 yard to the JXST 32
24.1%
0.0
Q2 2:43
Conor Donaghy punt for 38 yds
24.1%
0.0
SHSU · Drive 13PUNT · 6 plays · 1 yds
Q2 2:43
No Huddle-Shotgun Watson,Hunter pass complete short middle to O'Neill,Grady caught at SAM40, for 18 yards to the SAM48 (Woods,Trevor) PENALTY SAM Illegal Touch-Pass (O'Neill,Grady) 5 yards from SAM30 to SAM25. NO PLAY.
26.3%
+2.2
Q2 2:43
Landan Brown run for 1 yd to the SHSU 26
26.3%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Sam Houston, clock 02:00
26.4%
+0.1
Q2 2:00
Hunter Watson pass complete to Grady O'Neill for 5 yds to the SHSU 31
26.4%
0.0
Q2 1:52
Timeout Jacksonville State, clock 01:52
26.3%
-0.1
Q2 1:41
Curtis Gerrand punt for 46 yds
26.3%
0.0
JXST · Drive 14END OF HALF · 11 plays · 29 yds
Q2 1:41
No Huddle-Shotgun Creel,Caden pass complete short left to Coombs,Caleb caught at JSU28, for 5 yards to the JSU28 (Stanford,Jalyn) PENALTY JSU Face Mask (Jackson,Reggie) 11 yard from JSU23 to JSU12. NO PLAY.
22.9%
-3.4
Q2 1:41
Cam Cook run for no gain to the JXST 12
22.9%
0.0
Q2 1:28
Timeout Sam Houston, clock 01:28
22.3%
-0.5
Q2 1:28
Caden Creel pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for 8 yds to the JXST 20
22.3%
0.0
Q2 1:28
Caden Creel pass complete to Cam Cook for 14 yds to the JXST 34 for a 1ST down
22.3%
0.0
Q2 1:28
Jacksonville State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the JXST 37
22.3%
0.0
Q2 1:28
Caden Creel pass complete to Michael Pettway for 8 yds to the JXST 45 for a 1ST down
22.1%
-0.2
Q2 1:28
Caden Creel pass incomplete
21.3%
-0.8
Q2 1:28
Caden Creel run for 8 yds to the SHSU 47
21.3%
0.0
Q2 0:33
Timeout Jacksonville State, clock 00:33
21.6%
+0.3
Q2 0:00
Cam Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 48
21.5%
-0.1
JXST · Drive 15PUNT · 7 plays · 10 yds
Q3 15:00
RJ Lopez kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
27.3%
+5.8
Q3 15:00
Cam Cook run for 6 yds to the JXST 31
24.1%
-3.3
Q3 15:00
Caden Creel run for 4 yds to the JXST 35 for a 1ST down
24.1%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Caden Creel run for 1 yd to the JXST 36
24.1%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Cam Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the JXST 35
23.7%
-0.4
Q3 15:00
Caden Creel pass incomplete to Cam Cook
24.1%
+0.4
Q3 12:34
Conor Donaghy punt for 44 yds , Emon Allen returns for no gain to the SHSU 20
25.3%
+1.2
SHSU · Drive 16TD · 8 plays · 80 yds
Q3 12:34
Alton McCaskill run for 5 yds to the SHSU 25
28.6%
+3.4
Q3 12:34
Hunter Watson pass complete to Tim Burns Jr. for 13 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST down
28.6%
0.0
Q3 12:34
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Qua'Vez Humphreys
29.0%
+0.3
Q3 12:34
Hunter Watson pass complete to Austin Smith for 9 yds to the SHSU 47
29.0%
0.0
Q3 12:34
Alton McCaskill run for 34 yds to the JXST 19 for a 1ST down
29.0%
0.0
Q3 12:34
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the JXST 15
31.1%
+2.1
Q3 12:34
Hunter Watson run for a loss of 5 yards to the JXST 20
31.1%
0.0
Q3 8:46
Hunter Watson pass complete to Chris Reed for 20 yds for a TD Jacksonville State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Caleb Nix) declined (Christian Pavon KICK)
52.3%
+21.2
JXST · Drive 17PUNT · 12 plays · 27 yds
Q3 8:46
RJ Lopez kickoff for 63 yds
50.8%
-1.4
Q3 8:46
Caden Creel run for 1 yd to the JXST 36
45.8%
-5.0
Q3 8:46
No Huddle-Shotgun Creel,Caden pass incomplete deep left to Coombs,Caleb thrown to SAM22 PENALTY SAM Pass Interference (Bailey,Tyler) 15 yards from JSU36 to SAM49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
45.8%
0.0
Q3 8:46
Caden Creel run for 1 yd to the SHSU 48
43.5%
-2.3
Q3 8:46
Khristian Lando run for 1 yd to the SHSU 47
43.5%
0.0
Q3 8:46
Caden Creel pass complete to Deondre Johnson for 8 yds to the SHSU 39 for a 1ST down
43.5%
0.0
Q3 8:46
Khristian Lando run for 9 yds to the SHSU 30
42.9%
-0.6
Q3 8:46
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the SHSU 29
42.9%
0.0
Q3 8:46
No Huddle-Shotgun Creel,Caden pass complete deep left to Cook,Cam caught at SAM04, for 25 yards to the SAM04 (Powell,Cecil) PENALTY JSU Holding (Baldwin,Pearson) 10 yards from SAM29 to SAM39. NO PLAY.
42.9%
0.0
Q3 8:46
Caden Creel run for 6 yds to the SHSU 33
42.9%
0.0
Q3 8:46
Jacksonville State Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Caden Creel) to the SHSU 37
42.9%
0.0
Q3 5:01
Conor Donaghy punt for 17 yds, fair catch by Emon Allen at the SHSU 20
43.8%
+0.9
SHSU · Drive 18PUNT · 4 plays · -1 yds
Q3 5:01
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 19
51.0%
+7.2
Q3 5:01
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Grady O'Neill
51.0%
0.0
Q3 5:01
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Grady O'Neill
51.0%
0.0
Q3 4:06
Curtis Gerrand punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SHSU 49 , Michael Pettway returns for 11 yds to the SHSU 49
52.3%
+1.3
JXST · Drive 19FG · 8 plays · 40 yds
Q3 4:06
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the SHSU 46
45.0%
-7.3
Q3 4:06
Caden Creel run for 10 yds to the SHSU 36 for a 1ST down
45.0%
0.0
Q3 4:06
Cam Cook run for 11 yds to the SHSU 25 for a 1ST down
44.3%
-0.6
Q3 4:06
Cam Cook run for 14 yds to the SHSU 11 for a 1ST down
44.3%
0.0
Q3 4:06
Cam Cook run for no gain to the SHSU 11
44.3%
0.0
Q3 4:06
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the SHSU 9
44.3%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Caden Creel run for no gain to the SHSU 9
46.8%
+2.5
Q4 14:56
Garrison Rippa 26 yd FG GOOD
38.9%
-8.0
SHSU · Drive 20PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q4 14:52
Garrison Rippa kickoff for 61 yds , Malik Phillips return for no gain to the SHSU 4
40.9%
+2.1
Q4 14:52
Hunter Watson run for 5 yds to the SHSU 9
47.1%
+6.2
Q4 14:52
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the SHSU 13
47.1%
0.0
Q4 14:52
Hunter Watson run for a loss of 7 yards to the SHSU 6 Hunter Watson fumbled, recovered by SHSU Hunter Watson
47.1%
0.0
Q4 13:00
Curtis Gerrand punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Caleb Nix at the JXST 48
47.6%
+0.4
JXST · Drive 21TD · 5 plays · 52 yds
Q4 13:00
Cam Cook run for 6 yds to the SHSU 46
39.3%
-8.3
Q4 13:00
Caden Creel pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for 23 yds to the SHSU 23 for a 1ST down
39.0%
-0.3
Q4 13:00
Caden Creel run for 12 yds to the SHSU 11 for a 1ST down
38.5%
-0.6
Q4 13:00
Cam Cook run for 4 yds to the SHSU 7
38.5%
0.0
Q4 10:34
Cam Cook run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
16.1%
-22.3
SHSU · Drive 22FUMBLE · 5 plays · 38 yds
Q4 10:34
Garrison Rippa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
17.3%
+1.2
Q4 10:34
Jacksonville State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the SHSU 43 for a 1ST down
26.5%
+9.2
Q4 10:34
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the SHSU 44
27.0%
+0.5
Q4 10:34
Alton McCaskill run for 7 yds to the JXST 49
27.0%
0.0
Q4 8:55
Hunter Watson run for 12 yds to the JXST 38 Hunter Watson fumbled, recovered by JXST Caleb Nix
26.1%
-1.0
JXST · Drive 23DOWNS · 9 plays · 21 yds
Q4 8:55
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the JXST 40
16.3%
-9.8
Q4 8:55
Caden Creel run for 7 yds to the JXST 47
16.3%
0.0
Q4 8:55
Cam Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the JXST 46
16.3%
0.0
Q4 8:55
Cam Cook run for 5 yds to the SHSU 49 for a 1ST down
16.5%
+0.2
Q4 8:55
Shotgun Creel,Caden rush left for 4 yards gain to the SAM45, out of bounds at SAM45 PENALTY JSU Holding (Johnson,Lance) 10 yards from SAM49 to JSU41. NO PLAY.
16.3%
-0.2
Q4 8:55
Caden Creel pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for 19 yds to the SHSU 40
16.3%
0.0
Q4 8:55
Cam Cook run for no gain to the SHSU 40
16.1%
-0.2
Q4 8:55
Andrew Paul run for no gain to the SHSU 40
16.1%
0.0
Q4 4:55
Andrew Paul run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 41
13.0%
-3.1
SHSU · Drive 24TD · 10 plays · 59 yds
Q4 4:55
Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line
19.6%
+6.6
Q4 4:55
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the JXST 47 for a 1ST down
19.6%
0.0
Q4 4:55
Tim Burns Jr. run for a loss of 12 yards to the SHSU 41
20.6%
+0.9
Q4 4:55
Landan Brown run for 2 yds to the SHSU 43
19.6%
-0.9
Q4 4:55
Hunter Watson pass complete to Austin Smith for 27 yds to the JXST 30 for a 1ST down
19.6%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Sam Houston, clock 02:00
20.1%
+0.4
Q4 2:00
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the JXST 27
20.1%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Alton McCaskill run for 8 yds to the JXST 19 for a 1ST down
20.1%
0.0
Q4 0:52
Hunter Watson pass complete to Chris Reed for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
60.6%
+40.6
Q4 0:52
Timeout Sam Houston, clock 00:52
16.2%
-44.4
JXST · Drive 25FG · 12 plays · 48 yds
Q4 0:47
Christian Pavon kickoff for 65 yds , Michael Pettway return for 17 yds to the JXST 17
59.2%
+43.0
Q4 0:47
Caden Creel run for 4 yds to the JXST 21
50.0%
-9.3
Q4 0:47
Caden Creel pass incomplete to Deondre Johnson
50.0%
0.0
Q4 0:47
Caden Creel pass complete to Caden Creel for 4 yds to the JXST 25
50.0%
0.0
Q4 0:15
Timeout Jacksonville State, clock 00:15
56.8%
+6.8
Q4 0:15
Cam Cook run for 18 yds to the JXST 43 for a 1ST down
56.8%
0.0
Q4 0:10
Timeout Jacksonville State, clock 00:10
57.3%
+0.5
Q4 0:10
Caden Creel pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for 17 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST down
57.3%
0.0
Q4 0:05
Timeout Sam Houston, clock 00:05
55.1%
-2.1
Q4 0:05
Caden Creel pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for 5 yds to the SHSU 35
55.1%
0.0
Q4 0:03
Timeout Sam Houston, clock 00:03
61.3%
+6.2
Q4 0:00
Garrison Rippa 52 yd FG GOOD
7.7%
-53.7
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Garrison Rippa 52 yd FG GOOD
-53.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:52
Timeout Sam Houston, clock 00:52
-44.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:47
Christian Pavon kickoff for 65 yds , Michael Pettway return for 17 yds to the JXST 17
+43