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TROY

Troy 13 at Jacksonville State 17

JXST
2025 · IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl · Dec 16, 2025 · Cramton Bowl
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Win probability · JXST
modelJXST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playJXST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:30 · #87 C.Donaghy punt 44 yards to the Troy30 fair catch by #2 P.Higgins at Troy30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Home team on offense−1.2Pregame prior+3.1Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score differential−0.4Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:39: Luis Medina 0 Yd Fumble Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick) — TROY win probability +5.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:55: #40 S.Renfroe field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls), clock 01:55 — TROY win probability +9.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:06: Shotgun #0 A.Paul rush left for 1 yard gain to the Troy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:06 #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #8 C.Cunningham, LS: #50 C.Marszalek) — JXST win probability +21.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:34: No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JAX ST26 (#0 J.Williams; #3 D.Lafayette) — JXST win probability +13.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:23: PENALTY JAX ST UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from JAX ST32 to JAX ST17. NO PLAY — JXST win probability +12.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:22TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:49TROY 4th & 5 at JXST 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:49JXST 4th & 2 at TROY 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    63.1%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:46TROY 4th & 15 at TROY 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:57JXST 4th & 7 at JXST 45, tied
    Close callWent for it · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:57TROY 4th & 7 at JXST 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:30JXST 4th & 19 at JXST 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−2.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:55TROY 4th & 7 at JXST 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:42JXST 4th & 6 at JXST 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:51TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 12, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:35JXST 4th & 9 at TROY 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:10TROY 4th & 21 at JXST 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−4.9
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:11JXST 4th & 19 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−4.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:34TROY 4th & 6 at JXST 27, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    30.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−12.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:30JXST 4th & 8 at JXST 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−4.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:06JXST 4th & 6 at TROY 47, up 4
    Close callPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:13TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.6%−6.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:41JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:39TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:06JXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3845% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
55.0%
Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass incomplete short right to #5 T.Taylor thrown to Troy37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
55.0%
PENALTY Troy Illegal Substitution 5 yards from Troy30 to Troy25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+1
55.0%
Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass complete short right to #7 R.Thomas caught at Troy22, for 1 yard to the Troy26 (#13 J.Cruz; #96 D.Prater)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+9
55.0%
Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Troy35 (#91 G.Stansbury; #31 M.Woods)Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
55.2%
#28 E.Crenshaw punt 36 yards to the JAX ST29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:4155% → 58%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
55.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JAX ST32 (#99 J.Peterson; #7 J.Stringer)Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
55.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JAX ST37 (#2 S.Cattledge; #7 J.Stringer)Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+5
55.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush right for 5 yards gain to the JAX ST42 (#0 J.Williams; #6 J.Powe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
55.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JAX ST45 (#14 D.Daniel-Sisavanh)Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+9
55.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #11 D.Johnson caught at JAX ST49, for 9 yards to the Troy46 (#3 D.Lafayette), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
55.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #5 D.Gentry caught at Troy41, for 18 yards to the Troy28 (#6 J.Powe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
55.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush left for 3 yards gain to the Troy25 (#11 E.Davis; #98 J.Fils-Aime)Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+3
55.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #1 M.Pettway caught at Troy26, for 3 yards to the Troy22 (#5 K.Levine)Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+22
58.0%
Brock Rechsteiner 22 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4443% → 41%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
57.3%
Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass complete short middle to #18 D.Epps caught at Troy30, for 0 yards to the Troy34 (#59 M.Sanders)Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+14
57.4%
Shotgun #9 G.Crowder rush middle for 14 yards gain to the Troy48 (#1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
57.0%
Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 0 yards to the Troy48 (#16 Q.Hood; #40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
57.1%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete short right to #5 T.Taylor thrown to Troy48 broken up by #44 K.PerrySimilar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+5
57.3%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short left to #14 E.Conner caught at JAX ST48, for 5 yards to the JAX ST47 (#31 M.Woods; #22 J.Jenkins)Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
58.6%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete short left to #7 R.Thomas thrown to JAX ST37 QB hurried by #40 W.O'Steen, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0060% → 60%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
59.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Paul rush left for 4 yards gain to the Troy49 (#2 S.Cattledge; #0 J.Williams)Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+2
59.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 2 yards gain to the Troy47 (#3 D.Lafayette; #5 K.Levine)Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+2
59.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Paul rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Troy45 (#7 J.Stringer; #2 S.Cattledge)Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
59.8%
#87 C.Donaghy punt 45 yards to the Troy00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:0341% → 38%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
59.5%
Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush left for 7 yards gain to the Troy27 (#22 J.Jenkins), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
59.2%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Troy33 (#96 D.Prater), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
59.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short right to #14 E.Conner caught at Troy34, for 11 yards to the Troy44 (#2 T.Franklin, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
58.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Troy47 (#47 C.Mims; #54 K.Bendolph)Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
58.6%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete deep left to #18 D.Epps thrown to JAX ST18 broken up by #22 J.JenkinsSimilar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-3
59.8%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short right to #1 J.Lovett caught at Troy43, for 3 yards loss to the Troy44 (#5 T.Taylor; #44 K.Perry)Similar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+5
60.7%
PENALTY Troy False Start (#13 K.McNulty) 5 yards from Troy44 to Troy39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 15
OWN 39
0
61.7%
#28 E.Crenshaw punt 49 yards to the JAX ST12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -12 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
56.6%
Luis Medina 0 Yd Fumble Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4257% → 57%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
56.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush left for 17 yards gain to the JAX ST42, out of bounds at JAX ST42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
57.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep left to #11 D.Johnson thrown to Troy17Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
57.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #3 B.Rechsteiner caught at JAX ST39, for 0 yards to the JAX ST42 (#44 L.Hodge)Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+3
56.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #5 D.Gentry caught at JAX ST42, for 3 yards to the JAX ST45 (#7 J.Stringer)Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
56.7%
No Huddle #2 G.Wimsatt pass incomplete short right to #13 P.Baldwin thrown to JAX ST46, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8FG
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:0346% → 47%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
54.0%
Shotgun #25 D.Palmer rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JAX ST41 (#16 Q.Hood)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
54.0%
Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass incomplete short right to #88 J.Worley thrown to JAX ST37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+6
54.2%
Shotgun #9 G.Crowder rush middle for 6 yards gain to the JAX ST35 (#6 R.Elston; #13 J.Cruz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
53.5%
Shotgun #25 D.Palmer rush right for 0 yards to the JAX ST35 (#31 M.Woods; #49 T.Gallagher)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
53.6%
Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass complete short right to #7 R.Thomas caught at JAX ST25, for 12 yards to the JAX ST23 (#4 S.Payton Hodges; #22 J.Jenkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
53.5%
Shotgun #25 D.Palmer rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JAX ST18 (#40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-2
53.5%
Shotgun #7 R.Thomas rush right for 2 yards loss to the JAX ST20 (#31 M.Woods)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
54.0%
Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass incomplete short left to #1 J.Lovett thrown to JAX ST17Similar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
53.0%
#40 S.Renfroe field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls), clock 10:57Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 2:2754% → 53%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
54.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #13 P.Baldwin caught at JAX ST31, for 10 yards to the JAX ST35 (#14 D.Daniel-Sisavanh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
54.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush left for 1 yard loss to the JAX ST34 (#5 K.Levine; #2 S.Cattledge)Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
54.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 2 yards gain to the JAX ST36 (#3 D.Lafayette)Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+15
53.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete deep left to #11 D.Johnson caught at Troy28, for 49 yards to the Troy15 (#17 M.Odom), out of bounds PENALTY JAX ST Pass Interference (#11 D.Johnson) 15 yards from JAX ST36 to JAX ST21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 24
OWN 21
+5
53.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #3 B.Rechsteiner caught at JAX ST24, for 5 yards to the JAX ST26 (#5 K.Levine; #7 J.Stringer)Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 19
OWN 26
0
52.9%
#87 C.Donaghy punt 44 yards to the Troy30 fair catch by #2 P.Higgins at Troy30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 6:3547% → 60%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
53.2%
Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Troy33 (#99 E.Oyebadejo; #59 M.Sanders)Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+17
52.9%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short right to #7 R.Thomas caught at Troy47, for 17 yards to the Troy50 (#22 J.Jenkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
50
0
51.2%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush right for 0 yards to the Troy50, out of bounds at Troy50Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
50
-8
51.4%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease sacked for loss of 8 yards to the Troy42 (#40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 18
OWN 42
+20
53.5%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short left to #2 P.Higgins caught at JAX ST48, for 20 yards to the JAX ST38 (#5 T.Taylor; #1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
51.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush left for 5 yards gain to the JAX ST33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+18
50.8%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short right to #18 D.Epps caught at JAX ST22, for 18 yards to the JAX ST15 (#22 J.Jenkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
50.8%
Shotgun #25 D.Palmer rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JAX ST10 (#59 M.Sanders)Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-3
50.8%
Shotgun #2 P.Higgins rush left for 3 yards loss to the JAX ST13 (#59 M.Sanders)Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+1
48.6%
Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JAX ST12 (#92 T.Carter; #44 K.Perry)Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
40.0%
#40 S.Renfroe field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls), clock 01:55Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
46.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JAX ST25 (#99 J.Peterson; #7 J.Stringer)Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+15
46.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #11 D.Johnson caught at JAX ST40, for 15 yards to the JAX ST40 (#8 J.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
48.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left thrown to JAX ST48 QB hurried by #99 J.PetersonSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-15
47.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel sacked for loss of 15 yards to the JAX ST25 (#22 D.Smith)Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 25
OWN 25
+11
45.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #22 K.Lando caught at JAX ST25, for 11 yards to the JAX ST36 (#8 J.White)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1845% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
45.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #11 D.Johnson caught at JAX ST41, for 16 yards to the JAX ST41 (#6 J.Powe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
47.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JAX ST44 (#2 S.Cattledge; #11 E.Davis)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
47.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush right for 4 yards gain to the JAX ST48 (#7 J.Stringer)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-3
47.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel sacked for loss of 3 yards to the JAX ST45 (#0 J.Williams)Similar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
43.5%
#87 C.Donaghy punt 43 yards to the Troy12 fair catch by #2 P.Higgins at Troy12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5158% → 57%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
41.8%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush middle for 0 yards to the Troy12 (#99 E.Oyebadejo)Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
42.1%
Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 0 yards to the Troy12 (#92 T.Carter; #49 T.Gallagher)Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
43.0%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush left for 0 yards to the Troy12 (#31 M.Woods)Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
43.4%
#28 E.Crenshaw punt 44 yards to the JAX ST44 fair catch by #1 C.Nix at JAX ST44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14FG
9 plays · 22 yds · 4:1646% → 50%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-9
46.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel sacked for loss of 9 yards to the JAX ST35 (#21 J.Perry)Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 19
OWN 35
+11
43.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Savage rush middle for 11 yards gain to the JAX ST46 (#6 J.Powe; #14 D.Daniel-Sisavanh)Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+8
43.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #11 D.Johnson caught at Troy48, for 8 yards to the Troy46 (#6 J.Powe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
47.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Paul rush left for 2 yards gain to the Troy44 (#7 J.Stringer; #99 J.Peterson)Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+9
47.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Savage rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Troy35 (#4 T.Thompson; #14 D.Daniel-Sisavanh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
49.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Savage rush left for 2 yards gain to the Troy33 (#3 D.Lafayette; #7 J.Stringer)Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-1
49.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Johnson rush right for 1 yard loss to the Troy34 (#3 D.Lafayette)Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
46.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short middle to #5 D.Gentry thrown to Troy27 broken up by #3 D.LafayetteSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+51
49.5%
#37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 51 yards GOOD (H: #8 C.Cunningham, LS: #50 C.Marszalek), clock 06:35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15MISSED FG
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:1059% → 53%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
41.1%
Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 1 yard loss to the JAX ST21, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
41.6%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush right for 0 yards to the JAX ST21, out of bounds at JAX ST21Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 11
OPP 21
-5
43.3%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease sacked for loss of 10 yards to the JAX ST31 (#4 S.Payton Hodges, #16 Q.Hood)Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 21
OPP 31
+49
46.8%
#40 S.Renfroe field goal attempt from 49 yards NO GOOD (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls), clock 04:10, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:5949% → 46%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
48.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Paul rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JAX ST34 (#11 E.Davis; #4 T.Thompson)Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
48.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep left to #11 D.Johnson thrown to Troy31Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+25
47.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete deep middle to #11 D.Johnson caught at Troy45, for 25 yards to the Troy41 (#6 J.Powe; #17 M.Odom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
53.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left to #1 M.Pettway thrown to Troy42Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
52.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 6 yards gain to the Troy35 (#6 J.Powe), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
52.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep middle to #81 G.Glover thrown to Troy05Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+15
49.9%
PENALTY JAX ST UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from Troy35 to Troy50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:11
4TH & 19
50
0
45.6%
#87 C.Donaghy punt 34 yards to the Troy16, out of bounds at Troy16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 2:1156% → 58%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
44.2%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short left to #7 R.Thomas caught at Troy24, for 9 yards to the Troy25 (#59 M.Sanders)Similar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
43.5%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass intercepted by #53 I.Mitchell at Troy47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+2
41.8%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short right to #1 J.Lovett caught at Troy20, for 2 yards to the Troy27 (#1 C.Nix; #12 M.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 18TD
13 plays · 47 yds · 5:4452% → 76%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
52.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Cunningham pass incomplete deep middle to #2 G.Wimsatt thrown to Troy10Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
51.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 L.Farrington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Troy45 (#7 J.Stringer; #93 K.Curry)Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+5
51.2%
PENALTY Troy Offside (#11 E.Davis) 5 yards from Troy45 to Troy40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+7
51.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 7 yards gain to the Troy33 (#14 D.Daniel-Sisavanh; #3 D.Lafayette), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
54.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 L.Farrington rush right for 5 yards gain to the Troy28 (#6 J.Powe)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
54.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 L.Farrington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Troy24 (#7 J.Stringer; #21 J.Perry)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
52.0%
Shotgun #26 L.Farrington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Troy22 (#93 K.Curry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
54.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 L.Farrington rush right for 1 yard gain to the Troy21 (#0 J.Williams)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
54.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Savage rush middle for 0 yards to the Troy21 (#2 S.Cattledge)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+12
51.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Savage rush left for 12 yards gain to the Troy09 (#3 D.Lafayette), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
54.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Savage rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Troy01 (#69 J.Paramore; #6 J.Powe)Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.0%
Shotgun #0 A.Paul rush left for 1 yard gain to the Troy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:06 #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #8 C.Cunningham, LS: #50 C.Marszalek)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:2234% → 34%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
66.5%
Shotgun #25 D.Palmer rush left for 11 yards gain to the Troy44 (#49 T.Gallagher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
63.9%
Shotgun #25 D.Palmer rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Troy48 (#40 W.O'Steen; #1 C.Nix)Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+8
62.8%
Shotgun #25 D.Palmer rush left for 8 yards gain to the JAX ST44 (#49 T.Gallagher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
62.2%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush left for 0 yards to the JAX ST44, out of bounds at JAX ST44Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+13
62.5%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short left to #7 R.Thomas caught at JAX ST35, for 13 yards to the JAX ST31 (#9 P.Taylor; #31 M.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
60.5%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush left for 4 yards gain to the JAX ST27, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
59.8%
Shotgun #25 D.Palmer rush middle for 0 yards to the JAX ST27 (#59 M.Sanders; #4 S.Payton Hodges)Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
61.8%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete short left thrown to JAX ST26Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+5
66.2%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short right to #2 P.Higgins caught at JAX ST22, for 5 yards to the JAX ST22 (#59 M.Sanders), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0480% → 83%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
79.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JAX ST26 (#0 J.Williams; #3 D.Lafayette)Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
79.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 0 yards to the JAX ST26 (#6 J.Powe; #7 J.Stringer)Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-1
78.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel sacked for loss of 2 yards to the JAX ST24 (#7 J.Stringer, #2 S.Cattledge)Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
82.7%
#87 C.Donaghy punt 43 yards to the Troy33 fair catch by #2 P.Higgins at Troy33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
73.4%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass intercepted by #5 T.Taylor at JAX ST32, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 21 yds · 2:1786% → 94%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
85.6%
PENALTY JAX ST UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from JAX ST32 to JAX ST17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 25
OWN 17
+2
85.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JAX ST19 (#3 D.Lafayette; #99 J.Peterson)Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 23
OWN 19
+2
84.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JAX ST21 (#11 E.Davis; #7 J.Stringer)Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 21
OWN 21
+28
85.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #11 D.Johnson caught at JAX ST30, for 28 yards to the JAX ST49 (#2 S.Cattledge), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
90.8%
Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 0 yards to the JAX ST49 (#7 J.Stringer; #93 K.Curry)Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
90.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 4 yards gain to the Troy47 (#3 D.Lafayette)Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
90.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Savage rush middle for 0 yards to the Troy47 (#1 L.Medina; #7 J.Stringer)Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
94.4%
#87 C.Donaghy punt 27 yards to the Troy20 fair catch by #2 P.Higgins at Troy20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23END OF HALF
12 plays · 36 yds · 1:0910% → 12%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
90.1%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush right for 11 yards gain to the Troy31 (#10 R.Rainer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
88.9%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete short middle to #14 E.Conner thrown to Troy40 broken up by #92 T.CarterSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
90.0%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Troy37, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
88.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete short right to #14 E.Conner thrown to Troy50Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+6
89.8%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short right to #2 P.Higgins caught at Troy42, for 6 yards to the Troy43 (#10 R.Rainer; #31 M.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
87.9%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete short middle to #1 J.Lovett thrown to Troy43 QB hurried by #92 T.CarterSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
88.5%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short middle to #88 J.Worley caught at JAX ST45, for 13 yards to the JAX ST44 (#59 M.Sanders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
86.0%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
86.7%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete short right to #7 R.Thomas thrown to JAX ST35 broken up by #10 R.RainerSimilar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
88.3%
Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete deep right to #18 D.Epps thrown to JAX ST00 broken up by #43 T.WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:06
Shotgun #0 A.Paul rush left for 1 yard gain to the Troy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:06 #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #8 C.Cunningham, LS: #50 C.Marszalek)
+21.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:34
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JAX ST26 (#0 J.Williams; #3 D.Lafayette)
+13.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:23
PENALTY JAX ST UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from JAX ST32 to JAX ST17. NO PLAY
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com