2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · AmFirst Stadium
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Win probability · JXST
modelJXST aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playJXST scoreUSM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:41 · Jack Dawson punt for 41 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for 7 yds to the USM 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:44: Anwar Lewis run for 7 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +5.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:39: John White run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Gibbs KICK) — USM win probability +5.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:58: Tyler Huff run for 6 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +8.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:15: Tyler Huff pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 85 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa PAT BLOCKED) — JXST win probability +10.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:05: Anwar Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
JXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 4USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:44USM 4th & 1 at USM 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt32.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:41USM 4th & 1 at JXST 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.6%70% to convertField goal24.9%−1.740% to makePunt24.7%−1.9average punt
- Q2 4:03USM 4th & 15 at USM 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snapGo for it18.4%−1.616% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.1%average punt
- Q2 1:53JXST 4th & 2 at JXST 41, up 14Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snapGo for it82.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.4%−0.7average punt
- Q3 10:09USM 4th & 13 at USM 22, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.5%−1.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q3 6:44JXST 4th & 5 at USM 25, up 27Close callKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%41% to convertField goalTheir call99.3%−<0.166% to makePunt96.9%−2.4average punt
- Q3 4:21USM 4th & 6 at USM 20, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 2:13USM 4th & 1 at USM 38, down 37Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:49USM 4th & 10 at USM 41, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 8:43JXST 4th & 7 at JXST 49, up 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 5:41JXST 4th & 9 at JXST 44, up 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:44JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.9%97% to makeGo for two67.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:44JXST Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.7%97% to makeGo for two72.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:39USM Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.1%97% to makeGo for two29.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:58JXST Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.5%97% to makeGo for two79.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:15JXST Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call94.4%97% to makeGo for two94.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:05JXST Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:19JXST Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUSMDrive 1INT5 plays · 19 yds · 2:2136% → 36%
JXSTDrive 2TD3 plays · 65 yds · 0:5664% → 66%
USMDrive 3INT7 plays · 26 yds · 3:3535% → 35%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 9 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
65.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 6 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
65.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass intercepted Geimere Latimer return for 2 yds to the JVST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4TD11 plays · 59 yds · 3:2567% → 72%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
66.7%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for a loss of 4 yards to the JVST 37Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+5
66.3%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 5 yds to the JVST 42Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+11
66.3%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 11 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
66.8%
Jacksonville State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the JVST 48Similar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 15
OWN 48
-5
66.5%
HUFF, Tyler pass up the middle complete for 11 yards to BARRICK, Jacob caught at the USM41 and advanced to the USM41, End of Play. PENALTY Before the snap, JSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the JSU48 to the JSU43. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+16
66.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jarod Bowie for 16 yds to the USM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5DOWNS6 plays · 37 yds · 3:0330% → 29%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
70.5%
John White pass complete to Davis Dalton for 29 yds to the JVST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-5
69.7%
WHITE, John pass short to the right complete for 21 yards to CLARK, Rodrigues caught at the JSU39 and advanced to the JSU21 (MCCRAY, Ky'won;YOUNG JR., Curley). PENALTY USM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on LAWSON, Drew enforced 5 yards from the JSU42 to the JSU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+9
70.2%
John White pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 9 yds to the JVST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6INT3 plays · 7 yds · 1:0074% → 74%
USMDrive 7TD13 plays · 43 yds · 5:0229% → 33%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+11
71.1%
John White pass complete to Justyn Reid for 11 yds to the JVST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+5
72.8%
GIBBS, Connor field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at JSU24], score nullified by penalty, clock 13:28. PENALTY Before the snap, JSU Illegal Formation on BROWN, Dylan enforced 5 yards from the JSU17 to the JSU12 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 9
OPP 11
-5
72.7%
Southern Miss Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Rodrigues Clark) to the JVST 16Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 14
OPP 16
+10
73.3%
WHITE, John pass up the middle incomplete intended for MIMS, Tiaquelin thrown to the JSU9; QB hurried by HALE, Laletia. PENALTY JSU Pass Interference on POYSER, Zechariah enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the JSU6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4169% → 79%
Q2 10:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
69.1%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 13 yds to the JVST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
70.6%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 11 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-7
70.5%
Tyler Huff sacked by Jameer Lewis for a loss of 7 yards to the JVST 48Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 18
OWN 48
+48
69.0%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Anwar Lewis for 48 yds to the USM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
70.9%
Jacksonville State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:4723% → 21%
Q2 6:50
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-11
76.4%
John White sacked by Reginald Hughes for a loss of 11 yards to the USM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1079% → 81%
Q2 1:53
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
80.8%
Jack Dawson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11FUMBLE9 plays · 80 yds · 1:3420% → 23%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
79.9%
John White pass complete to Larry Simmons for 29 yds Larry Simmons fumbled, recovered by USM for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
78.8%
John White pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 24 yds to the JVST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+12
78.6%
WHITE, John pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for HEATH, Kyirin broken up by DENSON, Tee at the JSU11. PENALTY JSU Pass Interference on DENSON, Tee enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the JSU15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.6%
John White run for 3 yds Jordan Johnson fumbled, recovered by JVST Ricky Samuel R. Samuel return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4583% → 93%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
83.0%
HUFF, Tyler scrambles to the left for a gain of 12 yards to the JSU37 (SABBATINI, Elijah), out of bounds. PENALTY JSU Holding on RECHSTEINER, Brock declined JSU Holding on ROBEY, Brock enforced 10 yards from the JSU25 to the JSU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+85
93.0%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 85 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:407% → 7%
JXSTDrive 15TD4 plays · 26 yds · 1:2394% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:561% → 1%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
98.6%
John White pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 21Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+8
98.6%
John White pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 8 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
98.5%
John White sacked by J-Rock Swain for a loss of 7 yards to the USM 22Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
98.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Samario Rudolph at the JVST 35Similar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
98.7%
HUFF, Tyler pass to the right incomplete intended for LACEY, Demarcus thrown to the JSU45. PENALTY USM Holding on LAWRENCE, Dylan enforced 10 yards from the JSU35 to the JSU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 17FG7 plays · 40 yds · 3:2599% → 99%
USMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:141% → 1%
JXSTDrive 19TD5 plays · 63 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
USMDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 12 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q3 2:13
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+2
99.7%
John White pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 2 yds to the USM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 21PUNT11 plays · 32 yds · 6:06100% → 100%
USMDrive 22INT2 plays · 14 yds · 0:370% → 0%
JXSTDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
Q4 5:41
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+7
99.9%
Jack Dawson punt for 41 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for 7 yds to the USM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24FUMBLE5 plays · 30 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q4 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+9
99.9%
WHITE, John pass deep to the right intercepted by CARTER, Derek at the JSU46 intended for MIMS, Tiaquelin. Carter return for 39 yards to the USM15 (KEYES, TK), clock 04:20. PENALTY JSU Pass Interference on CARTER, Derek enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the USM47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN, penalty is enforced before the change of possession [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+3
99.9%
JQ Gray run for 3 yds to the JVST 48 JQ Gray fumbled, recovered by JVST Thaxton Gallagher T. Gallagher return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 25END OF GAME5 plays · 24 yds · 3:33100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:15
Tyler Huff pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 85 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa PAT BLOCKED)
+10
TD · Q2 6:58
Tyler Huff run for 6 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
+8
TD · Q1 4:44
Anwar Lewis run for 7 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
+5.4