2024 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2024 · Fifth Third Stadium
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Win probability · KENN
modelKENN aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playKENN scoreJXST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · DJ Scott run for 2 yds to the JVST 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:23: Tyler Huff run for 6 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +4.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:08: Tre Stewart run for 9 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +5.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:49: Davis Bryson pass complete to Carson Kent for 7 yds for a TD (Austin Welch KICK) — KENN win probability +7.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:56: Tyler Huff run for 14 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +9.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:14: Tre Stewart run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +9.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6JXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 12:54KENN 4th & 3 at KENN 29, tiedClose callPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it15.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:57KENN 4th & 5 at JXST 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.7% before the snapGo for it17.6%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call17.6%91% to makePunt16.1%−1.4average punt
- Q1 1:43JXST 4th & 8 at JXST 27, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snapGo for it79.7%−0.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.1%average punt
- Q1 0:13KENN 4th & 21 at KENN 20, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snapGo for it18.7%−1.08% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.7%average punt
- Q2 14:37JXST 4th & 3 at JXST 48, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt79.4%−0.3average punt
- Q2 12:47JXST 4th & 1 at KENN 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.1%70% to convertField goal77.8%−1.332% to makePunt77.9%−1.2average punt
- Q2 8:59KENN 4th & 15 at KENN 30, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snapGo for it15.8%−0.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%average punt
- Q2 0:00JXST 4th & 11 at KENN 21, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snapGo for it73.8%−1.525% to convertField goalTheir call75.2%74% to makePunt69.5%−5.7average punt
- Q3 11:15JXST 4th & 1 at KENN 17, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.9%71% to convertField goal71.6%−2.480% to makePunt64.5%−9.5average punt
- Q3 3:51KENN 4th & 8 at KENN 29, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it8.1%−0.733% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q4 3:53KENN 4th & 4 at JXST 45, down 32Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.125% to makePunt0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2JXST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 10:54JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.2%97% to makeGo for two84.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:23JXST Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.4%97% to makeGo for two83.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:08JXST Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.2%97% to makeGo for two87.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:49KENN Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call25.6%97% to makeGo for two25.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:56JXST Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.1%97% to makeGo for two83.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:14JXST Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:23JXST Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:08JXST Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:29KENN Touchdown, down 26 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.9%−0.197% to makeGo for two0.9%45% to convert
- Q4 7:28JXST Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:22JXST Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENNDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2813% → 14%
JXSTDrive 2TD6 plays · 59 yds · 1:5286% → 86%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
13.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Michael Pettway for a loss of 1 yard to the KENN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 3FG13 plays · 62 yds · 6:1714% → 18%
JXSTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4183% → 81%
KENNDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:2518% → 18%
Q1 1:04
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-15
18.5%
(01:04) ASHLEY, Qua rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the KSU37 (BROWN, Dylan;HUGHES, Reginald), clock 01:30. PENALTY KSU Personal Foul on KETTELS, Jacob enforced 15 yards from the KSU32 to the KSU17 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3682% → 81%
KENNDrive 7INT3 plays · -15 yds · 0:5920% → 20%
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-15
20.3%
(14:30) BENEFIELD, Michael rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the JSU43 (DELOACH, Dajwon;CARTER, Derek), clock 13:51. PENALTY KSU Personal Foul on WALLACE, Tykeem enforced 15 yards from the JSU48 to the KSU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 25
OWN 37
0
19.6%
Davis Bryson pass intercepted Zechariah Poyser return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8TD9 plays · 50 yds · 2:1481% → 85%
Q2 13:37
3RD & 10
50
+9
19.2%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 9 yds to the KENN 41Similar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
18.7%
(12:28) STEWART, Tre rush up the middle for a loss of 3 yards, STEWART, Tre fumbled at KSU34 forced by SCARVER, Amir, recovered by KSU JONES, Milon at the KSU38, returned 0 yards to the KSU38, End of Play, clock 12:56. PENALTY KSU Face mask enforced 15 yards from the KSU35 to the KSU20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5216% → 15%
Q2 8:59
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
15.4%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Samario Rudolph at the JVST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10TD6 plays · 78 yds · 1:4684% → 91%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
16.1%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 10 yds to the JVST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+14
16.0%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
50
+26
15.3%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 26 yds to the KENN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
15.2%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 15 yds to the KENN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11FUMBLE4 plays · 42 yds · 1:0383% → 84%
Q2 5:19
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+27
16.2%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Michael Pettway for 27 yds Michael Pettway fumbled, recovered by KENN Milon Jones M. Jones return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 12TD12 plays · 67 yds · 3:3717% → 27%
JXSTDrive 13MISSED FG16 plays · 54 yds · 1:4978% → 78%
Q2 1:04
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-10
21.9%
(01:04) HUFF, Tyler scrambles up the middle for a gain of 8 yards, HUFF, Tyler fumbled at KSU49 , recovered by JSU O'STEEN, Will at the KSU49, returned 0 yards to the KSU49, End of Play, clock 00:57. PENALTY JSU Holding on HARLEY, Daveion enforced 10 yards from the JSU43 to the JSU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 18
OWN 33
+15
24.0%
(00:57) HUFF, Tyler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for VAUGHN, Cam thrown to the KSU25, clock 00:49. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on BILLINGSLEY, Que enforced 15 yards to the JSU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
20.8%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 15 yds to the KENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 16
-5
21.9%
RIPPA, Garrison field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at KSU24], score nullified by penalty, clock 00:00. PENALTY Before the snap, JSU False Start enforced 5 yards from the KSU16 to the KSU21. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2976% → 85%
KENNDrive 15INT8 plays · 36 yds · 3:4316% → 17%
JXSTDrive 16TD3 plays · 65 yds · 0:3787% → 95%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
14.8%
Kennesaw State Penalty, Personal Foul (Juandarion Silas) to the KENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:508% → 8%
JXSTDrive 18TD9 plays · 68 yds · 3:2695% → 99%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
4.1%
Tyler Huff pass complete to P.J. Wells for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+20
4.0%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jacob Barrick for 20 yds to the KENN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+5
3.4%
Tre Stewart run for 5 yds to the KENN 19 Tre Stewart fumbled, recovered by JVST Tre Stewart T. Stewart return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 19INT TD3 plays · 5 yds · 0:521% → 0%
KENNDrive 20TD4 plays · 68 yds · 1:350% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 21TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2899% → 100%
Q4 8:46
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+15
0.4%
Kennesaw State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Amir Scarver) to the KENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 4 yds · 2:530% → 0%
JXSTDrive 23TD5 plays · 42 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 24END OF GAME4 plays · 30 yds · 1:110% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:56
Tyler Huff run for 14 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q3 6:14
Tre Stewart run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q2 1:49
Davis Bryson pass complete to Carson Kent for 7 yds for a TD (Austin Welch KICK)
+7