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NMSU

New Mexico State 13 at Jacksonville State 54

JXST
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 9, 2024 · AmFirst Stadium
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Win probability · JXST
modelJXST aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playJXST scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDSAFETYTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:06 · Jack Dawson punt for 44 yds, downed at the NMSU 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior+37.5Home team on offense+1.4Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:10: Tyler Huff pass complete to Tre Stewart for 32 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +2.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:20: Abraham Montano 41 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 2:51: Garrison Rippa 45 yd FG GOOD — JXST win probability +2.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:09: Tre Stewart run for 48 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +5.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:20: Tyler Huff run for 2 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 11:21JXST 4th & 8 at NMSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:16NMSU 4th & 6 at JXST 36, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.9%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:03NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:06JXST 4th & 4 at NMSU 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:13NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 9, down 4
    Close callPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00JXST 4th & 9 at NMSU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    86.8%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:34JXST 4th & 9 at JXST 29, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:20NMSU 4th & 8 at JXST 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:51JXST 4th & 26 at NMSU 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:39NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:14NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 27, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:49NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 33, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:45JXST 4th & 2 at NMSU 5, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:42NMSU 4th & 9 at JXST 24, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:47JXST 4th & 2 at NMSU 27, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:37JXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:10JXST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:09JXST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:20JXST Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:42JXST Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:45JXST Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:46JXST Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:37NMSU Touchdown, down 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JXSTDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:3693% → 92%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.1%
Tyler Huff run for 4 yds to the JVST 29Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
93.0%
Tre Stewart run for 7 yds to the JVST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
93.0%
(14:20) HUFF, Tyler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for PETTWAY, Michael thrown to the NMSU34, clock 14:14. PENALTY NMSU Roughing the Passer on AUPIU, Sone enforced 15 yards from the JSU36 to the NMSU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
93.0%
Tre Stewart run for 8 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+4
92.9%
Tre Stewart run for 4 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
92.8%
Tre Stewart run for 6 yds to the NMSU 31Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
92.8%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+6
92.7%
Tyler Huff run for 6 yds to the NMSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
92.7%
Tre Stewart run for 1 yd to the NMSU 24Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
92.6%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+1
92.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 1 yd to the NMSU 23Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
92.3%
Garrison Rippa 41 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:018% → 9%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
92.2%
Seth McGowan run for 9 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+5
92.1%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
92.1%
Mike Washington run for 23 yds to the JVST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
91.4%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
91.4%
Santino Marucci pass complete to TJ Pride for 4 yds to the JVST 36Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
91.2%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+53
91.1%
Abraham Montano 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3791% → 92%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
91.1%
Tyler Huff run for a loss of 3 yards to the JVST 22Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
90.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to P.J. Wells for 6 yds to the JVST 28Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
90.7%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Sean Brown for 8 yds to the JVST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+54
90.7%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Michael Pettway for 54 yds to the NMSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
91.6%
Tre Stewart run for 10 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:299% → 9%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
91.3%
Seth McGowan run for 9 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 1
OWN 27
-5
91.0%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 22Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+1
91.1%
Seth McGowan run for 1 yd to the NMSU 23Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
91.1%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+8
91.1%
George Eberle punt for 52 yds , Samario Rudolph returns for 8 yds to the JVST 33Similar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
90.9%
(05:01) HUFF, Tyler pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for VAUGHN, Cam thrown to the NMSU30, clock 04:55. PENALTY NMSU Pass Interference on KELLEY JR., Lanar enforced 15 yards to the JSU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:4691% → 90%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
91.1%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 3 yds to the NMSU 49Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
91.0%
Tyler Huff run for 5 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-2
90.8%
Anwar Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 46Similar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
90.4%
Jack Dawson punt for 44 yds, downed at the NMSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4510% → 10%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
90.4%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the NMSU 4Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+7
90.2%
Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the NMSU 11Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 11
-2
90.1%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 9Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
90.2%
George Eberle punt for 37 yds, downed at the NMSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5890% → 89%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-7
90.1%
Tre Stewart run for a loss of 7 yards to the JVST 47 Tre Stewart fumbled, recovered by JVST Tre Stewart T. Stewart return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 17
OWN 47
+8
89.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jordan McCants for 8 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
89.6%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
89.2%
Jack Dawson punt for 44 yds, downed at the NMSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8SF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
90.0%
Jawaun Campbell SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 9TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:2591% → 93%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
90.7%
Tyler Huff run for 11 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
90.7%
Tre Stewart run for 3 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+5
90.7%
Jarod Bowie run for 5 yds to the NMSU 36Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+2
90.4%
Tre Stewart run for 2 yds to the NMSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
90.6%
Tyler Huff run for 2 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
90.5%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+32
93.2%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Tre Stewart for 32 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:378% → 8%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
92.1%
Santino Marucci run for 3 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
92.1%
Monte Watkins run for 6 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+38
92.0%
Santino Marucci run for 38 yds to the JVST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
91.3%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
91.3%
Monte Watkins run for 8 yds to the JVST 22Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-6
91.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the JVST 28 fumbled, recovered by JVST Travis Franklin Jr. T. Franklin Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5393% → 93%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
93.0%
Tre Stewart run for 4 yds to the JVST 32Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-3
93.0%
Tre Stewart run for a loss of 3 yards to the JVST 29Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
92.8%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
92.6%
Jack Dawson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by TJ Pride at the NMSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:088% → 10%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
91.9%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the NMSU 39Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+7
91.7%
Santino Marucci pass complete to TJ Pride for 7 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
91.7%
(07:26) MARUCCI, Santino pass to the left complete for 16 yards to WASHINGTON, Mike caught at the JSU47, WASHINGTON, Mike fumbled at JSU38 forced by MCCRAY, Ky'won, recovered by JSU FRANKLIN, JR., Travis at the JSU38, returned 7 yards to the JSU45 (JACKSON, Shamarr;MCCRAY, Ky'won), clock 07:12. PENALTY JSU Targeting on PERRY, Fred enforced 15 yards from the NMSU46 to the JSU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
91.6%
Seth McGowan run for 13 yds to the JVST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
91.1%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
91.2%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the JVST 24Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
91.5%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
89.6%
Abraham Montano 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:2990% → 92%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.0%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
89.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 22 yds to the JVST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+42
90.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 42 yds to the NMSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 20
OPP 21
0
90.6%
Tyler Huff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
90.6%
(04:12) QB Keeper HUFF, Tyler rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the NMSU5 (MARTINEZ, Tyler), clock 04:13. PENALTY JSU Holding on BROWN, Sean enforced 10 yards from the NMSU11 to the NMSU21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 20
OPP 21
+6
90.5%
Tyler Huff run for 6 yds to the NMSU 15Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 14
OPP 15
-12
89.8%
Tyler Huff sacked by Malaki Ta'ase for a loss of 12 yards to the NMSU 27Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 26
OPP 27
+45
92.4%
Garrison Rippa 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:088% → 8%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.0%
Seth McGowan run for no gain to the NMSU 25Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
92.0%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
92.1%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Jahrique Lowe for 13 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
91.7%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the NMSU 40Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
91.7%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
91.8%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+2
92.1%
George Eberle punt for 44 yds , Samario Rudolph returns for 2 yds to the JVST 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 15TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 0:2693% → 97%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
93.0%
Tre Stewart run for 4 yds to the JVST 22Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+30
92.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jacob Barrick for 15 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST down New Mexico State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Da'Marcus Crosby) to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
97.3%
Tre Stewart run for 48 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:083% → 4%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.6%
(01:09) MARUCCI, Santino pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON III, PJ thrown to the NMSU50; QB hurried by HUGHES, Reginald, clock 01:04. PENALTY JSU Pass Interference on MACK, Jabari enforced 15 yards to the NMSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-20
96.4%
Santino Marucci sacked for a loss of 20 yards to the NMSU 20 Santino Marucci fumbled, recovered by JVST J-Rock Swain , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 17TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:3297% → 99%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
97.3%
Tyler Huff run for 11 yds to the NMSU 9 for a 1ST down New Mexico State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Dakerric Hobbs) to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
97.3%
Tre Stewart run for 2 yds to the NMSU 2Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.0%
Tyler Huff run for 2 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18END OF HALF
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:121% → 1%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
98.9%
Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+15
98.7%
(00:05) AWAD, Parker pass deep to the left intercepted by POYSER, Zechariah at the JSU38 intended for LOWE, Jahrique. Poyser return for 0 yards to the JSU38, End of Play, clock 00:00. PENALTY JSU Personal Foul on DELOACH, Dajwon enforced 15 yards from the NMSU28 to the NMSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
98.8%
Parker Awad pass complete to Mike Washington for 12 yds to the JVST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:411% → 1%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
98.7%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+5
98.5%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
98.6%
Seth McGowan run for 1 yd to the NMSU 33Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
98.6%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-6
98.6%
Parker Awad sacked by Reginald Hughes for a loss of 6 yards to the NMSU 27Similar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 15
OWN 27
0
99.4%
George Eberle punt for 46 yds, downed at the JVST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:3299% → 100%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
99.4%
Tyler Huff run for 1 yd to the JVST 28Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+10
99.4%
Tre Stewart run for 10 yds to the JVST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.4%
Tre Stewart run for 7 yds to the JVST 45Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+15
99.3%
HUFF, Tyler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for VAUGHN, Cam thrown to the NMSU20. PENALTY NMSU Pass Interference on HOBBS, Dakerric enforced 15 yards to the NMSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
99.4%
Tyler Huff run for 12 yds to the NMSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
99.6%
Andrew Paul run for 28 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.6%
Parker Awad run for 4 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
99.6%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the NMSU 33Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the NMSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 33 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
99.7%
Andrew Paul run for 7 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 3
OPP 26
0
99.7%
Tre Stewart run for no gain to the NMSU 26Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+13
99.7%
Tyler Huff run for 13 yds to the NMSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
99.7%
Tre Stewart run for 1 yd to the NMSU 12Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+5
99.7%
Tre Stewart run for 5 yds to the NMSU 7Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+2
99.8%
Tre Stewart run for 2 yds to the NMSU 5Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 5 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 51 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Parker Awad run for 7 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.8%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+38
99.8%
Parker Awad pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 38 yds to the JVST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
99.8%
Parker Awad pass complete to Larenzo McMillan for a loss of 1 yard to the JVST 26Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+2
99.8%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the JVST 24Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
99.8%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 9
OPP 24
0
99.8%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 24TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
99.8%
Tre Stewart run for 4 yds to the JVST 28Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+72
99.8%
Logan Smothers run for 72 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:090% → 0%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
99.9%
Mike Washington run for 16 yds to the NMSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
99.9%
Mike Washington run for 10 yds to the JVST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
99.9%
New Mexico State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the NMSU 39Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 24
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Parker Awad pass complete to Mike Washington for 4 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+22
99.9%
Parker Awad pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 22 yds to the JVST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
99.9%
TJ Pride run for 14 yds to the JVST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Parker Awad pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 21 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 6:48100% → 100%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Andrew Paul run for no gain to the JVST 25Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Logan Smothers run for 15 yds to the JVST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
99.9%
Andrew Paul run for 14 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.9%
Andrew Paul run for 4 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Andrew Paul run for no gain to the NMSU 42Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+7
99.9%
Andrew Paul run for 7 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Andrew Paul run for no gain to the NMSU 35Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.9%
Andrew Paul run for 3 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+5
99.9%
Andrew Paul run for 5 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 2
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Andrew Paul run for no gain to the NMSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27INT
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:390% → 0%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Tim Gans run for 2 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+10
100.0%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 10 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for no gain to the NMSU 39Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
100.0%
(02:00) AWAD, Parker pass deep to the left incomplete intended for PRIDE, TJ broken up by FRANKLIN, JR., Travis at the JSU25, clock 01:52. PENALTY JSU Pass Interference on FRANKLIN, JR., Travis enforced 15 yards to the JSU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
100.0%
Tim Gans run for 3 yds to the JVST 43Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
100.0%
Parker Awad run for 8 yds to the JVST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.9%
Tim Gans run for 3 yds to the JVST 32Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+8
100.0%
Parker Awad run for 8 yds to the JVST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
100.0%
Parker Awad pass complete to Kordell David for 6 yds to the JVST 18Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-16
100.0%
Parker Awad pass intercepted Travis Franklin Jr. return for 16 yds to the JVST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:09
Tre Stewart run for 48 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q2 12:10
Tyler Huff pass complete to Tre Stewart for 32 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
+2.7
FG · Q2 2:51
Garrison Rippa 45 yd FG GOOD
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com