2024 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2024 · AmFirst Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · JXST
modelJXST aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playJXST scoreCCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:50 · Garrison Rippa 49 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:12: Ethan Vasko pass complete to Tray Taylor for 36 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +6.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:48: Ethan Vasko run for 4 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +14.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:20: Braydon Bennett run for 2 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +12.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:19: Cole Fuller run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +17.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:11: Braydon Bennett run for 2 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +10.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
JXST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9CCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
- Q1 11:06CCU 4th & 8 at JXST 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.4% before the snapGo for it39.3%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call39.4%90% to makePunt38.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 10:13JXST 4th & 8 at JXST 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snapGo for it59.9%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.1%average punt
- Q1 5:50JXST 4th & 10 at CCU 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snapGo for it59.0%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call59.2%54% to makePunt58.9%−0.3average punt
- Q2 13:40JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snapGo for it47.4%−0.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.0%average punt
- Q2 10:04JXST 4th & 6 at JXST 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snapGo for it33.4%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.9%average punt
- Q2 8:37CCU 4th & 3 at JXST 49, up 21Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snapGo for it72.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 7:09JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 8, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snapGo for it28.8%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%average punt
- Q3 13:50JXST 4th & 3 at JXST 32, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snapGo for it21.5%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.8%average punt
- Q3 7:35JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 30, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it4.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q3 5:57CCU 4th & 1 at JXST 42, up 28Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.8%70% to convertField goal96.6%−0.230% to makePuntTheir call96.7%−0.2average punt
- Q3 3:13CCU 4th & 10 at JXST 22, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.5%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call96.6%72% to makePunt96.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:13JXST 4th & 1 at JXST 34, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:10JXST 4th & 6 at CCU 8, down 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call0.7%90% to makePunt0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 2:18CCU 4th & 9 at JXST 9, up 28Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%−0.125% to convertField goal99.7%89% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 1:12CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.1%97% to makeGo for two44.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:01CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.6%97% to makeGo for two49.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:48CCU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.2%97% to makeGo for two63.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:20CCU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.0%97% to makeGo for two85.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:19JXST Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.1%97% to makeGo for two18.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:11CCU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:34CCU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:03JXST Touchdown, down 29 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.4%45% to convert
- Q4 2:18CCU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:06JXST Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCCUDrive 1FG12 plays · 50 yds · 3:4542% → 42%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
58.4%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Delay Of Game (Ethan Vasko) to the CCU 37Similar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+5
58.4%
CCU rush up the middle for a loss of 3 yards, fumbled at CCU33 , recovered by CCU VASKO, Ethan at the CCU36, returned 0 yards to the CCU36, End of Play. PENALTY JSU Offsides on PRATER, Darrell enforced 5 yards from the CCU39 to the CCU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
58.4%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Tray Taylor for 3 yds to the JVST 39Similar
Q1 14:51
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+5
58.4%
VASKO, Ethan pass deep to the right incomplete thrown to the JSU21. PENALTY JSU Offsides on YOUNG JR., Curley enforced 5 yards from the JSU39 to the JSU34 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5358% → 58%
CCUDrive 3FUMBLE4 plays · 28 yds · 1:5442% → 43%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
58.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Kendall Karr for 12 yds to the CCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+7
57.4%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 7 yds to the JVST 44 Ja'Vin Simpkins fumbled, recovered by JVST Zechariah Poyser Z. Poyser return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4FG7 plays · 25 yds · 2:2958% → 59%
Q1 8:19
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-2
58.5%
Logan Smothers sacked by Ibrahim Diawara for a loss of 2 yards to the CCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5TD8 plays · 77 yds · 4:3042% → 49%
Q1 5:42
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+5
57.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 5 yds to the CCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+8
57.6%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 8 yds to the JVST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
51.2%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Tray Taylor for 36 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6FUMBLE RETURN TD1 play · -8 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 7INT2 plays · 11 yds · 0:4248% → 48%
CCUDrive 8INT3 plays · 6 yds · 0:4255% → 56%
JXSTDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3847% → 46%
Q2 13:40
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
45.5%
Jack Dawson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tray Taylor at the CCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10TD6 plays · 80 yds · 1:5256% → 71%
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+59
43.8%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Tray Taylor for 59 yds to the JVST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 1:4434% → 32%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
33.8%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 12 yds to the JVST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 31 yds · 1:2773% → 74%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
27.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Cameron Wright for 24 yds to the CCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2830% → 28%
CCUDrive 14TD10 plays · 48 yds · 4:4977% → 89%
Q2 7:09
3RD & 13
OPP 22
+6
23.7%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Face mask (6 yards) (Curley Young Jr.) to the JVST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
23.3%
VASKO, Ethan pass to the left incomplete intended for TUCKER, Jameson broken up by POYSER, Zechariah at the JSU0. PENALTY JSU Pass Interference on POYSER, Zechariah enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the JSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 15TD12 plays · 75 yds · 2:0112% → 25%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.9%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 5 yds to the JVST 30Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
11.2%
SMOTHERS, Logan pass short to the right incomplete intended for RUDOLPH, Samario broken up by POWELL, Juan at the JSU35. PENALTY CCU Pass Interference on POWELL, Juan enforced 15 yards to the JSU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
12.5%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Tre Stewart for 17 yds to the CCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
12.9%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 11 yds to the CCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
13.7%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 14 yds to the CCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.2%
JSU rush up the middle for a loss of 9 yards, fumbled at CCU3 , recovered by JSU SMOTHERS, Logan at the CCU10, returned 0 yards to the CCU10, End of Play. PENALTY CCU Offsides on TEMONEY, Abraham enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the CCU1 to the CCU0 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -3 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1021% → 21%
Q3 13:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
20.5%
Jack Dawson punt for 48 yds , Tray Taylor returns for 1 yd to the CCU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18TD9 plays · 79 yds · 4:3984% → 96%
JXSTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:364% → 4%
Q3 9:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
4.2%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Jordan McCants for 1 yd fumbled, forced by AJ Williams, recovered by JVST Will O'Steen W. O'Steen return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
3.9%
Jack Dawson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tray Taylor at the CCU 34Similar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
3.5%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, False Start (Cameron Wright) to the CCU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 24 yds · 1:3896% → 97%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
3.7%
WASHINGTON, Christian rush up the middle for no gain to the CCU34 (HUGHES, Reginald;HALE, Laletia). PENALTY JSU Personal Foul on PAYTON HODGES, Shane enforced 15 yards from the CCU34 to the CCU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
3.1%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Samario Rudolph at the JVST 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 21INT3 plays · -5 yds · 0:314% → 3%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
3.5%
Tyler Huff sacked by Ibrahim Diawara and Tray Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the JVST 6Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 15
OWN 6
-1
3.1%
Tyler Huff pass intercepted Cristian Conyer return for 1 yd to the JVST 22Similar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
2.6%
SIMPKINS, Ja'Vin rush to the left for no gain to the JSU22 (CARTER II, Antonio). PENALTY CCU Holding on JOHNSON, Thomas enforced 10 yards from the JSU22 to the JSU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22FG4 plays · 0 yds · 2:1397% → 97%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+6
2.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Cane Berrong for 6 yds to the JVST 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 23FG14 plays · 67 yds · 5:032% → 1%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
1.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jacob Barrick for 9 yds to the JVST 45Similar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+30
2.1%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 30 yds to the CCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
2.3%
Andrew Paul run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCU 25 Andrew Paul fumbled, recovered by JVST Tyler Huff T. Huff return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 24TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:3699% → 100%
Q4 8:34
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+37
0.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 37 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 25TD2 plays · 85 yds · 0:240% → 0%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
0.2%
HUFF, Tyler pass up the middle incomplete intended for LACEY, Demarcus thrown to the JSU14. PENALTY JSU Personal Foul on HUFF, Tyler enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the JSU15 to the JSU8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+92
0.3%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Michael Pettway for 92 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 26TD9 plays · 75 yds · 5:45100% → 100%
Q4 2:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Senika McKie for 9 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 27TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:120% → 0%
Q4 2:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+24
0.1%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jarod Bowie for 24 yds to the CCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:19
Cole Fuller run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
+17.6
TD · Q2 11:48
Ethan Vasko run for 4 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
-14.2
TD · Q2 2:20
Braydon Bennett run for 2 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
-12.1