Indiana

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2895th
  Defense−0.0797th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense51.1%98th
  Defense35.1%94th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1822nd
  Defense+1.3121st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1781st
  Defense−0.1699th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4798th
  Defense+0.0969th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense54.9%98th
  Defense39.5%97th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense39.5%97th
  Defense27.1%78th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2387th
  Defense2.2199th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.8%87th
  Defense29.9%99th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense11.4%95th
  Defense23.2%99th

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Indiana allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   ODU
2. W
   KENN
3. W
   INST
4. W
   ILL
5. W
   IOWA
6. W
   ORE
7. W
   MSU
8. W
   UCLA
9. W
   MD
10. W
    PSU
11. W
    WIS
12. W
    PUR
13. W
    OSU
14. W
    ALA
15. W
    ORE
16. W
    MIA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Indiana.

Players, 2025

1. Fernando MendozaQB326 plays · +0.274 pts/play · 28th of 231 QBs
   1.67WAR1.05 to 2.26
2. Roman HembyRB182 plays · +0.088 pts/play · 44th of 365 RBs
   0.30WAR0.20 to 0.40
3. Kaelon BlackRB131 plays · +0.110 pts/play · 59th of 365 RBs
   0.27WAR0.21 to 0.34
4. Omar Cooper Jr.WR64 plays · +0.196 pts/play · 48th of 451 WRs
   0.24WAR0.12 to 0.35
5. Charlie BeckerWR38 plays · +0.296 pts/play · 59th of 451 WRs
   0.21WAR0.14 to 0.28
6. Elijah SarrattWR48 plays · +0.231 pts/play · 63rd of 451 WRs
   0.21WAR0.12 to 0.30
7. Nico RadicicPK15 plays · +0.299 pts/play · 58th of 112 kickers
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.12
8. E.J. Williams Jr.WR34 plays · +0.118 pts/play · 242nd of 451 WRs
   0.08WAR0.03 to 0.12

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Indiana's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  64564572nd of 134Roster talent: 645, 72nd of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  19519551st of 134Recruiting: 195, 51st of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  25%25%81st of 132Returning production: 25%, 81st of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +32.4+32.41st of 134SP+ rating: +32.4, 1st of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Indiana's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.17 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at OSUQ4 0:18 4th & 5 at OSU 38, up 3Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−5.9 pts
2. at OSUQ4 10:45 4th & 4 at IU 49, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
3. at IOWAQ4 9:47 4th & 2 at IOWA 26, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
4. at OREQ4 0:32 4th & 22 at ORE 39, up 10Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.1 pts
5. at OREQ4 2:06 4th & 3 at ORE 4, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
6. at MDQ2 10:30 4th & 1 at MD 2, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
7. vs MIAQ3 9:02 4th & 3 at IU 47, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. vs MIAQ4 1:42 4th & 4 at MIA 17, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

1st of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Indiana's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   ODU
2. W

   KENN
3. W

   INST
4. W

   ILL
5. W

   IOWA
6. W

   ORE
7. W

   MSU
8. W

   UCLA
9. W

   MD
10. W

    PSU
11. W

    WIS
12. W

    PUR
13. W

    OSU
14. W

    ALA
15. W

    ORE
16. W

    MIA

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Indiana's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+3.82
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock+0.11
• Timeouts+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.55

Game by game

• ODUW 27-14 vs ODU93% → 99%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +12
• KENNW 56-9 vs KENN98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• INSTW 73-0 vs INST100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• ILLW 63-10 vs ILL66% → 100%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts −1
• IOWAW 20-15 at IOWA72% → 96%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +39, Clock +2
• OREW 30-20 at ORE27% → 95%Before kickoff −23 · On the field +68: Scoreboard +58, Clock +4
• MSUW 38-13 vs MSU94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +9
• UCLAW 56-6 vs UCLA95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +7
• MDW 55-10 at MD91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +14
• PSUW 27-24 at PSU77% → 84%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +30, Clock +3
• WISW 31-7 vs WIS95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +8
• PURW 56-3 at PUR96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +8
• OSUW 13-10 at OSU34% → 89%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +44, Clock +3
• ALAW 38-3 vs ALA62% → 100%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +39, Clock −1
• OREW 56-22 vs ORE53% → 100%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +47: Scoreboard +45, Timeouts +1
• MIAW 27-21 vs MIA67% → 96%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Indiana's side.

Closest call

PSU 35-36 IU (2020) - Indiana dropped to a 3.1% win probability before pulling it out.