2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:19 · Mitch McCarthy punt for 47 yds , Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding returns for 3 yds to the ODU 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 10:03: Nico Radicic 22 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +1.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:36: Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +3.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:09: Kaelon Black run for 2 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +5.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:53: Colton Joseph run for 78 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — ODU win probability +4.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:53: Timeout Indiana, clock 06:53 — IU win probability +4.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 9:44IU 4th & 1 at ODU 1, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.9%59% to convertField goal90.7%−0.294% to makePunt90.2%−0.7average punt
- Q1 5:48ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 35, up 7Close callPunted · 11.2% before the snapGo for it11.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:09ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snapGo for it14.4%−0.331% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.7%average punt
- Q2 10:03IU 4th & 4 at ODU 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snapGo for it86.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call86.5%−0.293% to makePunt85.0%−1.7average punt
- Q2 6:46ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 48, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it13.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.7%average punt
- Q2 4:19IU 4th & 3 at IU 45, up 3Close callPunted · 85.3% before the snapGo for it85.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 2:15ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 33, down 10Close callPunted · 10.3% before the snapGo for it10.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.1%−0.2average punt
- Q3 10:00ODU 4th & 14 at ODU 39, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it4.6%−1.018% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q3 3:02IU 4th & 7 at ODU 7, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.6%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call95.8%91% to makePunt93.0%−2.8average punt
- Q3 1:06ODU 4th & 6 at ODU 29, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q3 1:06ODU 4th & 6 at ODU 29, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q4 11:52IU 4th & 2 at ODU 8, up 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%54% to convertField goal98.6%−0.390% to makePunt97.2%−1.6average punt
- Q4 8:14IU 4th & 7 at ODU 41, up 20Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%37% to convertField goal98.8%−0.232% to makePuntTheir call98.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ODU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 14:49ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.4%97% to makeGo for two7.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:36IU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.0%97% to makeGo for two90.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:09IU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.5%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:53ODU Touchdown, down 14 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call3.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two3.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:007% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2DOWNS13 plays · 69 yds · 4:4893% → 91%
ODUDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 3:509% → 12%
IUDrive 4FUMBLE8 plays · 66 yds · 3:3488% → 87%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
87.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 9 yds to the IU 33Similar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
86.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 4 yds to the IU 41Similar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
86.7%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 9 yds to the ODU 20 Lee Beebe Jr. fumbled, recovered by ODU Zion FrinkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT RETURN TD8 plays · 15 yds · 1:4914% → 12%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
85.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 14 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
85.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 3 yds to the ODU 37Similar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-5
84.5%
(00:41) PENALTY ODU False Start (Thomas,Ja'Cory) 5 yards from ODU40 to ODU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+91
87.9%
Ian Brandt punt for 56 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for 91 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6INT6 plays · 12 yds · 1:2214% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7FG9 plays · 51 yds · 3:2888% → 88%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
88.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 22 yds to the ODU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 23 yds · 3:1012% → 13%
Q2 9:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
88.0%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 5 yds to the ODU 29Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
87.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 17 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-5
86.6%
PENALTY ODU False Start (Hargrove,Ke'Travion) 5 yards from IND47 to ODU48. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:2187% → 87%
Q2 5:57
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
86.4%
(06:02) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete deep right to Williams Jr.,E.J. thrown to ODU40 PENALTY ODU Pass Interference (Frink,Zion) 15 yards from IND23 to IND38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
87.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the IU 45Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+3
86.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 47 yds , Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding returns for 3 yds to the ODU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2413% → 13%
IUDrive 11TD3 plays · 5 yds · 0:1188% → 92%
ODUDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 1:149% → 9%
Q2 2:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
91.1%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 5 yds to the ODU 28Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+5
91.6%
(02:30) Brandt,Ian punt 22 yards to the ODU50, out of bounds at ODU50 PENALTY IND Running Into The Kicker (Jones,Isaiah) 5 yards from ODU28 to ODU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+8
91.4%
Ian Brandt punt for 59 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for 8 yds to the IU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13MISSED FG14 plays · 50 yds · 2:0693% → 90%
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
92.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to LeBron Bond for 12 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
92.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Holden Staes for 4 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+9
92.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Roman Hemby for 9 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5190% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.6%
(15:00) PENALTY IND False Start (Benson,Kahlil) 5 yards from IND25 to IND20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+11
89.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 11 yds to the IU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+46
89.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 46 yds to the ODU 21 for a 1ST down Old Dominion Penalty, Defensive Holding (TJ Lott) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
90.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 6 yds to the ODU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:006% → 5%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
94.3%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 18 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
93.9%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Joseph,Colton pass incomplete short left to Brown,Tre thrown to ODU50 QB hurried by Tucker,Tyrique and Kamara,Mikail PENALTY ODU Illegal Formation 5 yards from ODU43 to ODU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 14
OWN 39
+9
94.7%
Ian Brandt punt for 46 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for 9 yds to the IU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17FG15 plays · 69 yds · 6:5195% → 98%
ODUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:462% → 2%
Q3 2:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
97.9%
Colton Joseph sacked by Isaiah Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 23Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+6
98.3%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Trequan Jones for 6 yds to the ODU 29Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.4%
Ian Brandt punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the IU 32Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.4%
Ian Brandt punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the IU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19DOWNS10 plays · 55 yds · 4:0899% → 100%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
99.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 11 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+24
99.6%
Fernando Mendoza run for 9 yds to the ODU 31 for a 1ST down Old Dominion Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (DeAndre Lynch) to the ODU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20INT6 plays · 19 yds · 1:161% → 1%
IUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q4 9:04
3RD & 3
OPP 37
-4
99.8%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Jeremy Mack Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22TD5 plays · 97 yds · 1:161% → 5%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+10
99.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 10 yds to the ODU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23END OF GAME15 plays · 64 yds · 6:4699% → 100%
Q4 5:34
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 4 yds to the IU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.2%
(04:58) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete deep middle to Brady,Jonathan thrown to ODU35 PENALTY ODU Offside (Thomas,Keshawn) 5 yards from IND36 to IND41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
99.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Charlie Becker for 4 yds to the IU 45Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+22
99.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 22 yds to the ODU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:09
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+5
TD · Q4 6:53
Colton Joseph run for 78 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
-4.4
TD · Q4 6:53
Timeout Indiana, clock 06:53
+4