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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:28 · Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 49 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:22: Mark Gronowski run for 3 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +12.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:03: Nico Radicic 46 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +8.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:43: Drew Stevens 54 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +10.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 9:47: Nico Radicic 44 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +11.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:28: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 49 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +41.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10IU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 10:52IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snapGo for it28.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.1%average punt
- Q1 8:42IU 4th & 7 at IU 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snapGo for it70.3%−0.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.6%average punt
- Q1 6:25IOWA 4th & 2 at IU 22, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snapGo for it30.1%57% to convertField goalTheir call29.8%−0.272% to makePunt28.5%−1.6average punt
- Q1 3:01IU 4th & 2 at IU 43, up 4Close callPunted · 67.8% before the snapGo for it68.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 11:05IOWA 4th & 11 at IU 40, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snapGo for it33.5%−0.127% to convertField goal33.5%−0.234% to makePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q2 5:53IU 4th & 1 at IOWA 26, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.4%71% to convertField goal65.0%−1.464% to makePunt61.2%−5.2average punt
- Q2 1:52IOWA 4th & 1 at IU 30, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.2%71% to convertField goal35.3%−1.956% to makePunt33.6%−3.6average punt
- Q3 11:27IU 4th & 11 at IOWA 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snapGo for it57.0%−1.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.6%average punt
- Q3 9:05IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snapGo for it43.9%−1.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.0%average punt
- Q3 8:15IU 4th & 7 at IU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snapGo for it56.6%−1.037% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.5%average punt
- Q3 3:41IOWA 4th & 3 at IU 44, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 49.8% before the snapGo for it51.0%52% to convertField goal46.9%−4.127% to makePuntTheir call49.1%−2.0average punt
- Q4 14:56IU 4th & 1 at IU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt51.3%−4.7average punt
- Q4 12:43IOWA 4th & 10 at IU 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snapGo for it49.4%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call49.6%42% to makePunt48.4%−1.2average punt
- Q4 9:47IU 4th & 2 at IOWA 26, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snapGo for it40.5%57% to convertField goalTheir call39.4%−1.264% to makePunt26.9%−13.6average punt
- Q4 2:01IOWA 4th & 5 at IU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.7% before the snapGo for it53.6%−0.941% to convertField goalTheir call54.5%68% to makePunt29.3%−25.2average punt
- Q4 0:16IOWA 4th & 10 at IU 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.6%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.6%−1.9average punt
- Q4 0:16IOWA 4th & 10 at IU 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.6%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.6%−1.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1IU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 13:33IU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.0%97% to makeGo for two71.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:22IOWA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.2%97% to makeGo for two47.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:28IU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.3 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call83.9%−1.397% to makeGo for two85.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIOWADrive 1INT3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3328% → 29%
IUDrive 2TD2 plays · 24 yds · 0:2672% → 72%
IOWADrive 3PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:3329% → 29%
Q1 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
28.5%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Sam Phillips for 13 yds to the IOWA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+2
28.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Nathan McNeil for 2 yds to the IOWA 38Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
28.7%
Rhys Dakin punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the IU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0371% → 71%
IOWADrive 5FG5 plays · 23 yds · 2:0030% → 31%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
29.7%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Sam Phillips for 15 yds to the IU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+6
30.1%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 6 yds to the IU 27Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+5
30.1%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to DJ Vonnahme for 5 yds to the IU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 3:2469% → 68%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
31.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 7 yds to the IU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT13 plays · 39 yds · 6:4832% → 34%
Q1 2:08
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+7
31.6%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to DJ Vonnahme for 7 yds to the IOWA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
33.3%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 2 yds to the IOWA 38Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+9
33.4%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 9 yds to the IOWA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
34.2%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to DJ Vonnahme for a loss of 1 yard to the IOWA 46Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+10
34.4%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Dayton Howard for 10 yds to the IU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+4
33.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Nathan McNeil for 4 yds to the IU 40Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
33.5%
Rhys Dakin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the IU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8DOWNS11 plays · 70 yds · 5:0566% → 67%
IOWADrive 9TD13 plays · 73 yds · 5:2235% → 51%
Q2 4:19
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+7
35.2%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Nathan McNeil for 7 yds to the IOWA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
37.6%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Sam Phillips for 21 yds to the IU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
38.6%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 6 yds to the IU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10FG4 plays · 47 yds · 0:1254% → 66%
IUDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 3:2660% → 58%
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
37.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 4 yds to the IU 45Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+4
37.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 4 yds to the IOWA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-7
38.4%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Max Llewellyn for a loss of 7 yards to the IOWA 48 Fernando Mendoza fumbled, recovered by IU Fernando Mendoza , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
42.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1644% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4260% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT9 plays · 38 yds · 4:2646% → 50%
Q3 7:36
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+16
46.2%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 16 yds to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
48.2%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Sam Phillips for 5 yds to the IOWA 41Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
50.6%
Mark Gronowski run for no gain to the IOWA 41 Mark Gronowski fumbled, recovered by IU Mark GronowskiSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+8
49.1%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 8 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15DOWNS10 plays · 33 yds · 3:3855% → 55%
Q3 2:19
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+21
46.9%
Fernando Mendoza run for 11 yds to the IU 29 for a 1ST down Iowa Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the IU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
42.7%
(02:06) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass complete short left to Brady,Jonathan caught at IND39, for 1 yard to the IND40 (Entringer,Koen) PENALTY IND Holding 10 yards from IND39 to IND29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-6
43.8%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 6 yards to the IU 34 Roman Hemby fumbled, recovered by IU Roman HembySimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+14
48.6%
Fernando Mendoza run for 14 yds to the IU 48 Iowa Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16FG5 plays · 11 yds · 1:5757% → 65%
IUDrive 17FG9 plays · 49 yds · 2:4837% → 54%
IOWADrive 18INT7 plays · 36 yds · 3:1055% → 61%
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+19
57.3%
Hank Brown pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 19 yds to the IU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
61.4%
Hank Brown pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 3 yds to the IU 39Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
61.4%
Hank Brown pass intercepted E.J. Williams Jr. return for no gain to the IU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19INT7 plays · 31 yds · 3:3051% → 52%
Q4 4:54
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+25
48.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 25 yds to the IOWA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
44.1%
(03:49) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete deep right to Williams Jr.,E.J. thrown to Iowa03 QB hurried by Lutmer,Zach PENALTY IND Holding 10 yards from Iowa44 to IND46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 12
OPP 46
-38
48.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass intercepted Zach Lutmer return for 38 yds to the IU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20MISSED FG6 plays · 5 yds · 0:3567% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21TD6 plays · 76 yds · 0:2851% → 98%
IOWADrive 22DOWNS11 plays · 26 yds · 1:0514% → 13%
IUDrive 23SF6 plays · -49 yds · 0:1190% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:28
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 49 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
-41.9
TD · Q2 0:22
Mark Gronowski run for 3 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
+12.2
FG · Q4 9:47
Nico Radicic 44 yd FG GOOD
-11.9