MSU
Michigan State 13 at Indiana 38
IU2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · F. Mendoza takes a knee
Market gave IU a 96% pregame chance
+32
IU leading by 25
+5
IU has the ball
+1
Blowout context favors the offense
+0
2023+ clock rules
+0
Ball at own 8
+0
0:00 left in regulation
+0
Defense has 3 timeouts left
+0
Pregame market line was available
+0
1st down
+0
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
MSU · Drive 1FG · 16 plays · 55 yds
Q1 15:00
Brendan Franke kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:54
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 22
-1.7
Q1 14:18
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for no gain to the MSU 22
-0.3
Q1 13:28
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 20 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 12:58
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 6 yds to the MSU 48
-0.2
Q1 12:21
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 9 yds to the IU 43 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 11:46
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari Kelly
-0.3
Q1 11:40
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for no gain to the IU 43
-0.1
Q1 10:57
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 9 yds to the IU 34
0.0
Q1 10:19
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 9 yds to the IU 25 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 9:35
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari Kelly
-0.3
Q1 9:35
(09:35) PENALTY MSU False Start (Masunas,Michael) 5 yards from IND25 to IND30. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q1 9:26
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for no gain to the IU 30
+0.1
Q1 8:38
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Brandon Tullis for 10 yds to the IU 20
-0.3
Q1 8:07
Martin Connington 38 yd FG GOOD
-1.3
Q1 8:07
Timeout Indiana, clock 08:07
+5.0
IU · Drive 2TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q1 8:07
Martin Connington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-3.4
Q1 7:58
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Roman Hemby for 2 yds to the IU 23
+2.4
Q1 7:25
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Roman Hemby
+0.2
Q1 7:09
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 16 yds to the IU 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 6:43
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 7 yds to the IU 46
+0.2
Q1 6:10
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST down
-2.1
Q1 5:33
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 14 yds to the MSU 34 for a 1ST down
-0.5
Q1 5:06
Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds to the MSU 29
+0.4
Q1 4:25
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 8 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 3:50
Kaelon Black run for 7 yds to the MSU 14
-0.1
Q1 3:18
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the MSU 13
0.0
Q1 2:40
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+4.3
Q1 2:40
Timeout Indiana, clock 02:40
-7.9
MSU · Drive 3TD · 16 plays · 75 yds
Q1 2:40
Brendan Franke kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+7.7
Q1 2:34
Brandon Tullis run for 5 yds to the MSU 30
-1.6
Q1 1:51
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 4 yds to the MSU 34
-0.2
Q1 1:08
Aidan Chiles run for 9 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 0:00
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 13 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST down
-0.7
Q2 14:49
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for 18 yds to the IU 26 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q2 14:02
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for a loss of 3 yards to the IU 29
-0.3
Q2 13:19
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 10 yds to the IU 19
0.0
Q2 12:41
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the IU 18
0.0
Q2 12:12
Timeout Indiana, clock 12:12
+0.3
Q2 12:05
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the IU 16 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 11:17
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 2 yards to the IU 18
-0.5
Q2 10:33
(10:39) Shotgun Chiles,Aidan rush left for 9 yards gain to the IND09 (Ponds,D'Angelo) PENALTY MSU Holding (Moore,Conner) 10 yards from IND18 to IND28. NO PLAY.
-0.2
Q2 10:01
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 13 yds to the IU 15
0.0
Q2 9:22
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 15 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
-6.9
Q2 9:22
Timeout Indiana, clock 09:22
+9.8
IU · Drive 4TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q2 9:22
Martin Connington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-8.7
Q2 9:15
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the IU 25
+0.9
Q2 8:35
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 19 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 8:05
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 7 yards to the IU 37
-0.6
Q2 7:23
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 39 yds to the MSU 24 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q2 6:47
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 24 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+9.7
Q2 6:47
Timeout Indiana, clock 06:47
-11.4
MSU · Drive 5PUNT · 8 plays · 35 yds
Q2 6:47
Brendan Franke kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+10.9
Q2 6:33
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 3 yds to the MSU 28
-3.3
Q2 6:00
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 8 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 5:15
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 23 yds to the IU 41 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q2 4:36
Makhi Frazier run for no gain to the IU 41
-1.1
Q2 4:13
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 3 yds to the IU 38
0.0
Q2 3:32
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 2 yards to the IU 40
-0.4
Q2 2:46
Aidan Chiles punt for 40 yds for a touchback
-0.5
IU · Drive 6TD · 12 plays · 80 yds
Q2 2:46
Timeout Indiana, clock 02:46
+4.3
Q2 2:35
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 24 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q2 2:00
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 2 yds to the IU 46
+0.5
Q2 2:00
Timeout Indiana, clock 02:00
-0.4
Q2 1:54
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 10 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:46
Timeout Indiana, clock 01:46
+0.1
Q2 1:46
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Riley Nowakowski
0.0
Q2 1:39
Fernando Mendoza run for 8 yds to the MSU 36
0.0
Q2 1:14
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Elijah Sarratt
0.0
Q2 1:14
Timeout Indiana, clock 01:14
-0.2
Q2 1:06
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 7 yds to the MSU 29 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:59
Kaelon Black run for 29 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+6.1
MSU · Drive 7END OF HALF · 9 plays · 13 yds
Q2 0:59
Brendan Franke kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q2 0:50
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 4 yds to the MSU 29
-1.4
Q2 0:37
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 5 yds to the MSU 34
0.0
Q2 0:31
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q2 0:19
Timeout Indiana, clock 00:19
-0.2
Q2 0:19
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 9 yds to the MSU 46
0.0
Q2 0:12
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for 2 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:12
Timeout Indiana, clock 00:12
-1.1
Q2 0:00
Aidan Chiles sacked by Stephen Daley for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 38
+0.2
IU · Drive 8TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Martin Connington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.6
Q3 14:53
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 12 yds to the IU 37 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q3 14:24
Fernando Mendoza run for 3 yds to the IU 40
+0.2
Q3 13:48
(13:53) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete short right to Cooper Jr.,Omar thrown to IND50, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Nash,Dontavius) 11 yard from IND40 to MSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 13:44
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MSU 48
0.0
Q3 13:09
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 48 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+3.7
Q3 13:09
Timeout Indiana, clock 13:09
-4.3
MSU · Drive 9MISSED FG · 11 plays · 43 yds
Q3 13:09
Brendan Franke kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+4.4
Q3 12:55
Aidan Chiles run for 1 yd to the MSU 26
-1.2
Q3 12:25
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 16 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:49
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 1 yd to the MSU 43
+0.1
Q3 11:12
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Michael Masunas for 8 yds to the IU 49
0.0
Q3 10:44
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q3 9:49
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 16 yds to the IU 34 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q3 9:19
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for no gain to the IU 34
-0.1
Q3 8:42
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the IU 32
0.0
Q3 8:01
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari Kelly
0.0
Q3 7:56
Martin Connington 50 yd FG MISSED
0.0
IU · Drive 10TD · 10 plays · 68 yds
Q3 7:56
Timeout Indiana, clock 07:56
+0.8
Q3 7:47
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 7 yds to the IU 39
0.0
Q3 7:19
Kaelon Black run for 5 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:44
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the IU 47
0.0
Q3 5:58
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 6 yds to the MSU 47
0.0
Q3 5:45
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 5:06
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 6 yds to the MSU 38
0.0
Q3 4:26
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 11 yds to the MSU 27 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:55
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 27 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+0.3
Q3 3:55
Timeout Indiana, clock 03:55
-1.0
MSU · Drive 11PUNT · 7 plays · -8 yds
Q3 3:55
Brendan Franke kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.0
Q3 3:47
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 9 yds to the MSU 34
-0.3
Q3 3:24
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Chiles,Aidan pass complete short left to Kelly,Omari caught at MSU32, for 2 yards to the MSU36 (Sharpe,Jamari; Fisher,Aiden) PENALTY MSU Holding (Marsh,Nick) 10 yards from MSU34 to MSU24. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 2:57
(03:06) Shotgun Chiles,Aidan rush left for 2 yards gain to the MSU26 (Tucker,Tyrique) PENALTY MSU Holding (Frazier,Makhi) 10 yards from MSU24 to MSU14. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 2:39
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 17
0.0
Q3 2:03
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCray
0.0
Q3 1:50
Ryan Eckley punt for 50 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for 16 yds to the IU 49
0.0
IU · Drive 12DOWNS · 11 plays · 44 yds
Q3 1:50
Timeout Indiana, clock 01:50
+0.3
Q3 1:43
Roman Hemby run for 9 yds to the MSU 42
0.0
Q3 0:55
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 0:00
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the MSU 36
0.0
Q4 14:54
(15:00) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass complete short left to Cooper Jr.,Omar caught at MSU22, for 14 yards to the MSU22 (Eaton,Joshua), out of bounds PENALTY IND Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Smith,Carter) 5 yards from MSU36 to MSU41. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 14:25
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 7 yds to the MSU 34
0.0
Q4 13:48
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Roman Hemby for 21 yds to the MSU 13 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 13:22
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 14
0.0
Q4 12:48
Khobie Martin run for no gain to the MSU 14
0.0
Q4 12:03
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 7 yds to the MSU 7
0.0
Q4 11:21
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to E.J. Williams Jr.
0.0
MSU · Drive 13DOWNS · 8 plays · 60 yds
Q4 11:18
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick Marsh
-0.2
Q4 11:09
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Bryson Williams for 8 yds to the MSU 16
0.0
Q4 10:08
Aidan Chiles run for 64 yds to the IU 20 Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by MSU for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:36
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick Marsh
0.0
Q4 9:31
Michigan State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Aidan Chiles) to the IU 31
0.0
Q4 9:18
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 8 yds to the IU 23
0.0
Q4 9:18
Timeout Indiana, clock 09:18
0.0
Q4 8:59
Aidan Chiles sacked by Stephen Daley for a loss of 9 yards to the IU 32
0.0
IU · Drive 14FG · 13 plays · 54 yds
Q4 8:53
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the IU 36
+0.2
Q4 8:09
Kaelon Black run for 5 yds to the IU 41
0.0
Q4 7:16
Fernando Mendoza run for 1 yd to the IU 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 6:42
Khobie Martin run for 3 yds to the IU 45
0.0
Q4 5:59
Khobie Martin run for 7 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 5:12
Khobie Martin run for 3 yds to the MSU 45
0.0
Q4 4:26
Khobie Martin run for 22 yds to the MSU 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 3:40
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the MSU 20
0.0
Q4 2:55
Khobie Martin run for 5 yds to the MSU 15
0.0
Q4 2:06
Fernando Mendoza run for 1 yd to the MSU 14
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Indiana, clock 02:00
0.0
Q4 1:56
Nico Radicic 31 yd FG GOOD
+0.1
Q4 1:56
Timeout Indiana, clock 01:56
-0.2
MSU · Drive 15FG · 9 plays · 59 yds
Q4 1:56
Brendan Franke kickoff for 62 yds
+0.3
Q4 1:49
Alessio Milivojevic run for 11 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 1:42
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for 10 yds to the MSU 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:26
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Evan Boyd for 18 yds to the IU 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:14
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Evan Boyd for 22 yds to the IU 14 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:04
Alessio Milivojevic sacked by Rolijah Hardy for a loss of 2 yards to the IU 16
0.0
Q4 0:45
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Rodney Bullard Jr.
0.0
Q4 0:36
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Jack Velling
0.0
Q4 0:33
Martin Connington 34 yd FG GOOD
-0.1
IU · Drive 16END OF GAME · 2 plays · -1 yds
Q4 0:30
Martin Connington kickoff for 62 yds , Solomon Vanhorse return for 5 yds to the IU 8
0.0
Q4 0:00
F. Mendoza takes a knee
+0.2
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:47
Timeout Indiana, clock 06:47
-11.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:47
Brendan Franke kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+10.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 9:22
Timeout Indiana, clock 09:22
+9.8