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ORE

Oregon 22 at Indiana 56

IU
2025 · College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl · Jan 9, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:04 · (14:14) #44 M.McCarthy punt 44 yards to the Ore19 #4 M.Benson return 11 yards to the Ore30 (#34 J.Utzinger), out of bounds PENALTY Ore Holding (#14 N.Offord) 10 yards from Ore25 to Ore15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Home team on offense+34.4Score differential+26.4Blowout margin+11.9Garbage-time factor+11.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:11: Jamari Johnson 19 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick) — ORE win probability +2.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:40: (00:42) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at Ore00, for 8 yards to the Ore00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:40 #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston) — IU win probability +4.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:13: Charlie Becker 36 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick) — IU win probability +15.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:59: Elijah Sarratt 2 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick) — IU win probability +5.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:50: Jay Harris 2 Yd Run (Dante Moore Pass to Jamari Johnson for Two-Point Conversion) — ORE win probability +0.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 13:26ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:35IU 4th & 27 at IU 43, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−3.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:57ORE 4th & 19 at ORE 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−2.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  4. Q3 4:10IU 4th & 3 at IU 46, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 0:37ORE 4th & 1 at IU 31, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.2%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q4 14:04IU 4th & 5 at IU 37, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:04ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 14, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 8:20ORE 4th & 4 at IU 35, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ORE made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 14:49IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:11ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:40IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:13IU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:59IU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:52IU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:50ORE Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:36IU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:13IU Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:22ORE Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-25
53.1%
D'Angelo Ponds 25 Yd Interception Return (Nico Radicic Kick)Similar
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-25
53.1%
D'Angelo Ponds 25 Yd Interception Return (Nico Radicic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:2947% → 47%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.1%
(14:49) Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush left for 4 yards gain to the Ore29 (#5 D.Ponds)Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
53.4%
(14:13) Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush right for 7 yards gain to the Ore36 (#22 J.Sharpe), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
53.7%
(13:36) #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #22 J.Harris caught at Ore35, for 12 yards to the Ore48 (#4 A.Fisher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
53.9%
(12:51) Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush left for 3 yards gain to the Ind49 (#95 T.Tucker)Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
54.0%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Johnson thrown to Ind33Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+9
54.1%
(12:16) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #4 M.Benson caught at Ind47, for 9 yards to the Ind40 (#5 D.Ponds; #7 L.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
54.3%
(11:30) #22 J.Harris rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Ind37 (#1 A.Ferrell)Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
54.6%
(10:47) Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush left for 4 yards gain to the Ind33 (#4 A.Fisher; #21 R.Hardy)Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+5
54.9%
(10:06) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #22 J.Harris caught at Ind28, for 5 yards to the Ind28 (#46 I.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
54.9%
(09:22) Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Ind22 (#12 D.Boykin)Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+5
55.1%
(08:39) #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #18 K.Sadiq caught at Ind21, for 5 yards to the Ind17 (#46 I.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
55.1%
(08:03) #22 J.Harris rush right for 2 yards loss to the Ind19 (#6 M.Kamara; #21 R.Hardy)Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
55.4%
(07:23) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #23 D.Hill Jr thrown to Ind00Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+19
52.9%
Jamari Johnson 19 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:2354% → 61%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.7%
(07:11) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush left for 1 yard gain to the Ind26 (#31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
53.7%
(06:35) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #13 E.Sarratt caught at Ind31, for 5 yards to the Ind31 (#7 I.Obidegwu)Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+23
53.6%
(06:02) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep left to #13 E.Sarratt caught at Ore47, for 23 yards to the Ore46 (#31 D.Thieneman; #7 I.Obidegwu), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
55.0%
(05:28) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Ore42 (#54 J.Mixon)Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
55.1%
PENALTY Ind False Start (#67 K.Benson) 5 yards from Ore42 to Ore47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+7
54.9%
(04:39) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Ore40 (#9 B.Purchase; #31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+5
55.1%
(03:53) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #37 R.Nowakowski caught at Ore35, for 5 yards to the Ore35 (#28 B.Boettcher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
55.7%
(03:21) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Ore29 (#29 A.Porter)Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+12
56.0%
(02:45) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 12 yards gain to the Ore17 (#21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
56.1%
(02:09) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush left for 11 yards gain to the Ore06 (#26 D.Jackson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
56.3%
(01:29) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 2 yards loss to the Ore08 (#29 A.Porter)Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
61.0%
(00:42) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at Ore00, for 8 yards to the Ore00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:40 #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:1341% → 35%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.1%
(00:39) Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush right for 4 yards gain to the Ore29 (#4 A.Fisher)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
63.7%
(14:58) Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Ore33 (#6 M.Kamara; #95 T.Tucker)Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
64.1%
(14:15) Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Ore32 (#6 M.Kamara; #46 I.Jones)Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
65.4%
(13:33) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 50 yards to the Ind18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:4467% → 69%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
67.4%
(13:25) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 0 yards to the Ind18 (#31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
67.8%
(12:52) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush left for 2 yards gain to the Ind20 (#28 B.Boettcher; #44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+21
67.8%
(12:20) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush left for 21 yards gain to the Ind41 (#21 A.Flowers), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
70.0%
(11:39) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush left for 4 yards gain to the Ind45 (#28 B.Boettcher) PENALTY Ore Block Below Waist (#7 I.Obidegwu) 15 yards from Ind45 to Ore40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
70.6%
(11:12) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Ore37 (#10 M.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
71.0%
(10:35) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete short left thrown to Ore30 broken up by #28 B.BoettcherSimilar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-4
70.4%
(10:31) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza sacked for loss of 20 yards to the Ind43 (#32 N.Wyatt), fumble by #15 F.Mendoza recovered by Ind #15 F.Mendoza at Ind47 #15 F.Mendoza return for loss of 4 yards to the Ind43 (#32 N.Wyatt)Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 27
OWN 43
+5
69.3%
(09:42) #44 M.McCarthy punt 49 yards to the Ore08 #2 G.Bryant Jr. return 5 yards to the Ore13 (#80 C.Becker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · -10 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-10
68.5%
(09:35) Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush middle for 10 yards loss to the Ore03 fumbled by #5 D.Moore at Ore07 recovered by Ind #97 M.Landino at Ore03, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:0472% → 72%
Q2 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
71.5%
(09:28) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush right for 1 yard gain to the Ore02 (#10 M.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
72.0%
(08:53) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Ore01 (#44 T.Tuioti; #54 J.Mixon)Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.6%
Kaelon Black 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:0830% → 27%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.6%
(08:14) Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush middle for 0 yards to the Ore25 (#4 A.Fisher; #95 T.Tucker)Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
70.2%
(07:45) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #22 J.Harris caught at Ore29, for 15 yards to the Ore40 (#4 A.Fisher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
69.4%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Ore47 (#7 L.Moore; #1 A.Ferrell)Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-9
68.9%
(06:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore sacked for loss of 9 yards to the Ore38 (#91 D.Ratcliff)Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 12
OWN 38
-7
71.6%
(05:51) Shotgun #5 D.Moore sacked for loss of 7 yards to the Ore31 (#17 D.Ndukwe)Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 19
OWN 31
+16
72.7%
(05:05) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 46 yards to the Ind23 #0 J.Brady return 16 yards to the Ind39 (#83 R.Saleapaga)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:3173% → 90%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
73.1%
(04:55) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #1 R.Hemby caught at Ind38, for 0 yards to the Ind39 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+18
73.1%
(04:19) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #13 E.Sarratt caught at Ore43, for 18 yards to the Ore43 (#5 T.Johnson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Ore Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
74.2%
(03:57) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at Ore36, for 7 yards to the Ore36 (#4 B.Finney), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+36
89.5%
Charlie Becker 36 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:2214% → 14%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.4%
(03:12) Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Ore29 (#4 A.Fisher)Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-8
86.1%
(02:43) Shotgun #5 D.Moore sacked for loss of 8 yards to the Ore21 (#17 D.Ndukwe), fumble by #5 D.Moore recovered by Ind #97 M.Landino at Ore21, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 19 yds · 1:1690% → 97%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
90.1%
(02:32) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush left for 2 yards gain to the Ore19 (#7 I.Obidegwu)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+5
90.6%
(02:00) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Ore14 (#31 D.Thieneman; #54 J.Mixon)Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+6
89.9%
(01:54) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #5 D.Ponds caught at Ore20, for 6 yards to the Ore08 (#22 J.Canady), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
91.1%
(01:49) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Ore01 (#21 A.Flowers; #28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
91.9%
(01:02) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Ore02 (#50 T.Gray)Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.2%
Elijah Sarratt 2 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:493% → 3%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
(00:58) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete deep right to #11 J.McClellan thrown to Ind45Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.6%
(00:50) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #4 M.Benson caught at Ore39, for 14 yards to the Ore39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
97.5%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right thrown to Ore45 PENALTY Ore Holding (#76 I.World) 10 yards from Ore39 to Ore29. NO PLAY. #6 M.Kamara injured on the playSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 20
OWN 29
0
97.7%
(00:35) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Johnson thrown to Ore34Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 20
OWN 29
+13
97.6%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #23 D.Hill Jr caught at Ore29, for 13 yards to the Ore42 (#5 D.Ponds)Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+20
97.5%
(00:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #9 J.Johnson caught at Ind41, for 20 yards to the Ind38 (#7 L.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.0%
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+56
97.1%
(00:02) #36 A.Sappington field goal attempt from 56 yards NO GOOD (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso), clock 00:00, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0897% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.2%
PENALTY Ind False Start (#62 D.Evans) 5 yards from Ind25 to Ind20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
97.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush left for 2 yards gain to the Ind22 (#26 D.Jackson)Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+16
97.4%
(14:19) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #13 E.Sarratt caught at Ind37, for 16 yards to the Ind38 (#21 A.Flowers), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
97.7%
(13:41) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Ind39 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+12
97.9%
(13:01) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #80 C.Becker caught at Ore49, for 12 yards to the Ore49 (#4 B.Finney), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
98.1%
(12:23) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush left for 10 yards gain to the Ore39 (#22 J.Canady; #21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
98.2%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Ore34 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-2
98.4%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush left for 2 yards loss to the Ore36 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+18
98.5%
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush middle for 18 yards gain to the Ore18 fumbled by #15 F.Mendoza at Ore16 forced by #22 J.Canady recovered by Ind #78 P.Coogan at Ore18, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
98.7%
(10:06) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Ore17 (#31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+4
98.8%
(09:33) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Ore13 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
99.0%
E.J. Williams Jr. 13 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:471% → 2%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+71
99.0%
(08:51) Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush right for 71 yards gain to the Ind04 (#1 A.Ferrell; #21 R.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
98.9%
(07:59) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #4 M.Benson thrown to Ind00 PENALTY Ind Pass Interference (#5 D.Ponds) 2 yards from Ind04 to Ind02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.5%
Jay Harris 2 Yd Run (Dante Moore Pass to Jamari Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:4099% → 99%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.9%
(07:50) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 62 yards gain to the Ore13 (#22 J.Canady) PENALTY Ind Holding (#74 B.Lynch) 10 yards from Ind25 to Ind15. NO PLAY. #22 J.Canady injured on the playSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+3
99.0%
(07:21) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Ind18 (#77 J.Johnson)Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+13
99.2%
(06:44) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #37 R.Nowakowski caught at Ind27, for 13 yards to the Ind31 (#28 B.Boettcher; #31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
99.3%
(06:05) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #13 E.Sarratt caught at Ind39, for 8 yards to the Ind39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.3%
(05:40) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Ind43 (#52 A.Washington)Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
99.4%
(05:00) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Ind46 (#31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
99.4%
(04:23) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete deep right to #3 O.Cooper Jr. thrown to Ore28Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
99.3%
(04:18) #44 M.McCarthy punt 49 yards to the Ore05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:241% → 0%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
99.5%
(04:09) Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Ore08 (#97 M.Landino). #9 J.Johnson injured on the playSimilar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 8
-1
99.6%
(03:27) Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Ore07 (#5 D.Ponds; #21 R.Hardy) PENALTY Ore Face Mask (#71 A.Harkey) 3 yards from Ore07 to Ore04Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+43
99.6%
(03:02) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete deep left to #11 J.McClellan caught at Ore47, for 43 yards to the Ore47 (#5 D.Ponds), 1ST DOWN. #6 M.Kamara injured on the playSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
99.6%
(02:33) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #1 D.Moore caught at Ore42, for 13 yards to the Ind40 (#4 A.Fisher; #21 R.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.7%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #18 K.Sadiq thrown to Ind21Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.7%
(02:04) #22 J.Harris rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Ind39 (#97 M.Landino)Similar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+8
99.7%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Ind31 (#7 L.Moore; #95 T.Tucker)Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 1
OPP 31
-1
99.6%
(00:40) #22 J.Harris rush left for 1 yard loss to the Ind32 (#4 A.Fisher; #18 A.Turvy), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.6%
(00:37) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Ind35 (#21 A.Flowers)Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
99.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at Ind34, for 2 yards to the Ind37 (#28 B.Boettcher; #3 B.Platt)Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
99.7%
(14:22) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete deep right to #3 O.Cooper Jr. thrown to Ore30Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+6
99.7%
(14:14) #44 M.McCarthy punt 44 yards to the Ore19 #4 M.Benson return 11 yards to the Ore30 (#34 J.Utzinger), out of bounds PENALTY Ore Holding (#14 N.Offord) 10 yards from Ore25 to Ore15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:460% → 0%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
99.8%
(14:03) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #18 K.Sadiq caught at Ore13, for 1 yard loss to the Ore14 (#22 J.Sharpe)Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+5
99.8%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #9 J.Johnson caught at Ore16, for 5 yards to the Ore19 (#17 D.Ndukwe)Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
99.8%
(13:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short middle to #9 J.Johnson thrown to Ore25Similar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+5
99.8%
PENALTY Ore Delay Of Game 5 yards from Ore19 to Ore14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 11
OWN 14
0
99.8%
(13:11) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 0 yards to the Ore14 blocked by #17 D.Ndukwe recovered by Ind #14 K.Turner at Ore11 #14 K.Turner return 4 yards to the Ore07 (#46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q4 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.7%
(13:01) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Ore05 (#31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.8%
(12:24) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush left for 2 yards gain to the Ore03 (#77 J.Johnson; #22 J.Canady)Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Elijah Sarratt 3 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:030% → 0%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
(11:35) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #18 K.Sadiq caught at Ore21, for 2 yards loss to the Ore23 (#4 A.Fisher)Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
99.8%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #11 J.McClellan caught at Ore21, for 0 yards to the Ore23 (#5 D.Ponds)Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
99.9%
(10:21) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #1 D.Moore caught at Ore30, for 15 yards to the Ore38 (#46 I.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left to #18 K.Sadiq thrown to Ore50 broken up by #4 A.FisherSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+21
99.8%
(09:52) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #18 K.Sadiq caught at Ore39, for 21 yards to the Ind41, out of bounds at Ind41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.8%
(09:23) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left thrown to Ind25Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
99.9%
(09:20) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #18 K.Sadiq caught at Ind37, for 6 yards to the Ind35 (#46 I.Jones)Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
99.9%
(08:34) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete deep left to #1 D.Moore thrown to Ind05Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
99.9%
(08:25) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Moore thrown to Ind24, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.9%
(08:20) Shotgun #28 K.Martin rush right for 10 yards gain to the Ind45 (#20 D.Williams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
99.9%
(07:29) Shotgun #28 K.Martin rush right for 26 yards gain to the Ore29 (#14 N.Offord), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.9%
(06:46) Shotgun #28 K.Martin rush left for 3 yards gain to the Ore26 (#52 A.Washington)Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+3
99.9%
(06:03) Shotgun #28 K.Martin rush left for 3 yards gain to the Ore23 (#5 T.Johnson)Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Kaelon Black 23 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:390% → 0%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
100.0%
(05:13) #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #11 J.McClellan caught at Ore39, for 14 yards to the Ore39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
100.0%
(04:35) #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right thrown to Ore49Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
100.0%
(04:26) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #11 J.McClellan caught at Ore37, for 9 yards to the Ore48 (#14 K.Turner; #22 J.Sharpe)Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+1
100.0%
(03:50) #22 J.Harris rush left for 1 yard gain to the Ore49 (#21 R.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
100.0%
(03:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left thrown to Ind41Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+12
100.0%
(03:09) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #23 D.Hill Jr caught at Ore43, for 12 yards to the Ind39 (#7 L.Moore), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
100.0%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Moore thrown to Ind20Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-2
100.0%
(02:27) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #11 J.McClellan caught at Ind44, for 2 yards loss to the Ind41 (#46 I.Jones)Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+39
100.0%
(01:59) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #9 J.Johnson caught at Ind37, for 39 yards to the Ind02 (#16 J.Boyd), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
100.0%
(01:21) #22 J.Harris rush middle for 0 yards to the Ind02 (#97 M.Landino; #95 T.Tucker)Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
100.0%
(00:37) #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #83 R.Saleapaga thrown to Ind00 PENALTY Ind Pass Interference (#18 A.Turvy) 1 yard from Ind02 to Ind01, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
(00:34) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left thrown to Ind00Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Roger Saleapaga 1 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
(00:20) Kneel down by Indiana at Ind24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:13
Charlie Becker 36 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)
+15.3
TD · Q2 0:59
Elijah Sarratt 2 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)
+5.3
TD · Q1 0:40
(00:42) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at Ore00, for 8 yards to the Ore00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:40 #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com