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ALA

Alabama 3 at Indiana 38

IU
2025 · College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl · Jan 1, 2026 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:00 · (13:06) #44 M.McCarthy punt 39 yards to the ALA41, out of bounds at ALA41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Pregame prior+12.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:49: (10:55) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep middle to #80 C.Becker caught at ALA00, for 21 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:49, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston) — IU win probability +4.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:00: (02:00) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ALA44 (#1 D.Jackson), 1ST DOWN — IU win probability +9.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:17: (00:20) #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at ALA00, for 1 yard to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:17 #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston) — ALA win probability +1.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:46: (07:52) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep left to #13 E.Sarratt caught at ALA00, for 24 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:46, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston) — IU win probability +3.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:21: (14:27) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush right for 25 yards gain to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:21, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston) — IU win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:00IU 4th & 15 at IU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:52ALA 4th & 14 at IU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:57IU 4th & 10 at ALA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:36ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.5%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:02ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:42IU 4th & 12 at IU 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:26ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:44ALA 4th & 10 at IU 10, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:17ALA 4th & 20 at ALA 15, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:40ALA 4th & 4 at IU 26, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 10:49IU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:46IU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:21IU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:33IU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5263% → 62%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
62.5%
(15:00) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza sacked for loss of 2 yards to the IND23 (#42 Y.Pierre, #0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
62.4%
(14:26) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush right for 8 yards gain to the IND31 (#10 J.Jefferson)Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-11
62.4%
(13:49) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza sacked for loss of 11 yards to the IND20 (#18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
62.2%
(13:06) #44 M.McCarthy punt 39 yards to the ALA41, out of bounds at ALA41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 4:0238% → 38%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
62.2%
(13:00) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #80 J.Cuevas thrown to ALA45 QB hurried by #97 M.LandinoSimilar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
62.3%
(12:54) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #2 R.Williams caught at ALA44, for 4 yards to the ALA45 (#22 J.Sharpe)Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+6
62.2%
(12:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #4 D.Hill caught at ALA50, for 6 yards to the IND49 (#4 A.Fisher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
62.0%
(11:49) #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #80 J.Cuevas caught at IND44, for 6 yards to the IND43 (#21 R.Hardy)Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+6
61.8%
(11:04) #4 D.Hill rush left for 6 yards gain to the IND37 (#7 L.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
61.7%
(10:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 0 yards to the IND37 (#7 L.Moore; #21 R.Hardy)Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-4
61.7%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #4 D.Hill caught at IND43, for 4 yards loss to the IND41 (#12 D.Boykin)Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 14
OPP 41
0
62.0%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete deep left to #2 R.Williams thrown to IND06 broken up by #7 L.Moore QB hurried by #2 B.Baldwin Jr.Similar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
62.3%
(08:58) #38 B.Doud punt 38 yards to the IND03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3FG
18 plays · 84 yds · 8:5162% → 63%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
62.0%
(08:52) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IND05 (#90 L.Simmons)Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+6
61.8%
(08:17) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 6 yards gain to the IND11 (#4 Q.Russaw; #41 N.Hill-Green)Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+7
61.6%
(07:40) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #13 E.Sarratt caught at IND15, for 7 yards to the IND18 (#2 Z.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
62.0%
(07:04) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #13 E.Sarratt caught at IND20, for 9 yards to the IND27 (#41 N.Hill-Green; #0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 1
OWN 27
0
62.4%
(06:24) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #13 E.Sarratt caught at IND26, for 0 yards to the IND27 (#2 Z.Brown)Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
61.7%
(05:49) #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IND29 (#18 B.Hubbard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
62.0%
(05:17) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush left for 1 yard gain to the IND30 (#3 K.Sabb; #11 J.Renaud)Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+30
62.0%
(04:41) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep right to #80 C.Becker caught at ALA40, for 30 yards to the ALA40 (#2 Z.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
63.1%
(04:35) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush left for 5 yards gain to the ALA35 (#42 Y.Pierre)Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+6
63.3%
(03:52) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ALA29 (#22 L.Overton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
63.4%
(03:12) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #7 E.Williams Jr. caught at ALA26, for 9 yards to the ALA20 (#2 Z.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+7
63.6%
(02:31) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ALA13 (#3 K.Sabb; #22 L.Overton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
63.6%
(01:49) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ALA12 (#94 E.Hill)Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
63.6%
(01:07) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #37 R.Nowakowski caught at ALA12, for 0 yards to the ALA12 (#96 T.Keenan III)Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 9
OPP 12
-1
63.1%
(00:22) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ALA13 (#41 N.Hill-Green; #18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
62.9%
(14:59) #15 N.Radicic field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston), clock 14:57Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:1037% → 37%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.9%
(14:57) #28 K.Riley rush left for 0 yards to the ALA25 (#46 I.Jones)Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.1%
(14:11) #28 K.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ALA27 (#46 I.Jones; #0 H.Wheeler)Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
63.6%
(13:30) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson rush right for 7 yards gain to the ALA34 (#4 A.Fisher)Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
63.4%
(12:44) Shotgun #4 D.Hill pass complete short middle to #5 G.Bernard caught at ALA32, for 0 yards to the ALA34 (#46 I.Jones; #21 R.Hardy), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:4665% → 70%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
65.2%
(12:35) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush left for 4 yards gain to the ALA30 (#10 J.Jefferson), out of bounds PENALTY IND Holding (#65 C.Smith) 10 yards from ALA34 to ALA44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+21
64.3%
(12:05) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush right for 21 yards gain to the ALA23 (#18 B.Hubbard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
65.3%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ALA21 (#90 L.Simmons; #41 N.Hill-Green)Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
65.4%
(10:58) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete short left to #80 C.Becker thrown to ALA11 broken up by #7 D.JonesSimilar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+21
69.5%
(10:55) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep middle to #80 C.Becker caught at ALA00, for 21 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:49, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3330% → 28%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
69.7%
(10:44) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #2 R.Williams caught at ALA18, for 5 yards to the ALA19 (#22 J.Sharpe)Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+18
70.1%
(10:04) #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #5 G.Bernard caught at ALA29, for 18 yards to the ALA37 (#4 A.Fisher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.7%
(09:27) #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #5 G.Bernard thrown to ALA34Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
70.1%
(09:25) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 0 yards to the ALA37 (#97 M.Landino)Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+1
71.2%
(08:48) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ALA38 (#17 D.Ndukwe)Similar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+17
72.0%
(08:12) #38 B.Doud punt 36 yards to the IND26 #0 J.Brady return 17 yards to the IND43 (#12 Z.Mincey)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1471% → 69%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-9
71.2%
(08:02) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza sacked for loss of 9 yards to the IND34 (#42 Y.Pierre)Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 19
OWN 34
+7
69.8%
(07:24) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 7 yards gain to the IND41 (#12 Z.Mincey). #8 K.Black injured on the playSimilar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 12
OWN 41
0
69.9%
(06:56) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete short middle to #37 R.Nowakowski thrown to ALA43 broken up by #5 D.Lee Jr.Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
69.2%
(06:48) #44 M.McCarthy punt 44 yards to the ALA15 fair catch by #7 C.Adams at ALA15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:2328% → 28%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
71.9%
(06:42) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #80 J.Cuevas caught at ALA21, for 8 yards to the ALA23 (#5 D.Ponds)Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+5
71.3%
(06:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #4 D.Hill caught at ALA27, for 5 yards to the ALA28 (#21 R.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
71.7%
(05:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush left for 5 yards gain to the ALA33 (#12 D.Boykin)Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+13
71.4%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #2 R.Williams caught at ALA46, for 13 yards to the ALA46 (#5 D.Ponds), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
70.9%
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #4 D.Hill caught at ALA46, for 3 yards to the ALA49 (#12 D.Boykin), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
71.2%
(04:05) #28 K.Riley rush right for 0 yards to the ALA49 (#91 D.Ratcliff)Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+9
72.1%
(03:22) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson rush left for 9 yards gain to the IND42 fumbled by #15 T.Simpson at IND42 forced by #5 D.Ponds recovered by IND #46 I.Jones at IND42, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 58 yds · 2:4774% → 84%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
73.7%
(03:07) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IND46 (#16 R.Morgan)Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
74.4%
(02:34) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush right for 3 yards gain to the IND49 (#3 K.Sabb)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+7
86.5%
(02:00) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ALA44 (#1 D.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
87.7%
(01:28) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush left for 8 yards gain to the ALA36 (#1 D.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+3
87.3%
(01:22) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ALA33 (#18 B.Hubbard), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (01:22) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ALA35 (#18 B.Hubbard))Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
88.0%
(01:12) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush left for 7 yards gain to the ALA26 (#18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+11
87.7%
(01:07) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #8 K.Black caught at ALA22, for 11 yards to the ALA15 (#18 B.Hubbard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
87.6%
(00:52) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #37 R.Nowakowski caught at ALA10, for 5 yards to the ALA10, out of bounds at ALA10Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+5
87.4%
(00:50) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ALA05 (#5 D.Lee Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
85.1%
(00:25) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ALA01 (#90 L.Simmons)Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.7%
(00:20) #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at ALA00, for 1 yard to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:17 #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
83.5%
(00:15) Kneel down by #15 T.Simpson at ALA24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2616% → 14%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
84.5%
(15:00) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #2 R.Williams caught at ALA20, for 2 yards loss to the ALA23 (#12 D.Boykin)Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
85.4%
(14:20) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short middle to #80 J.Cuevas thrown to ALA23 broken up by #97 M.LandinoSimilar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
85.7%
(14:17) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #80 J.Cuevas caught at ALA25, for 5 yards to the ALA28 (#22 J.Sharpe)Similar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+50
85.9%
(13:34) #38 B.Doud punt 50 yards to the IND22 #0 J.Brady return for loss of 1 yard to the IND21 (#17 L.Brooks)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 5:3586% → 95%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
85.5%
(13:26) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush left for 4 yards gain to the IND25 (#10 J.Jefferson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+3
86.1%
(12:51) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IND28 (#0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+8
86.8%
(12:15) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush middle for 8 yards gain to the IND36 (#0 D.Lawson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
87.7%
(11:40) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush left for 5 yards gain to the IND41 (#42 Y.Pierre)Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+12
89.9%
(11:09) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush right for 12 yards gain to the ALA47 (#2 Z.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
90.3%
(10:28) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at IND49, for 6 yards to the ALA41 (#16 R.Morgan; #22 L.Overton)Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+8
90.7%
(09:49) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ALA33 (#22 L.Overton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
91.3%
(09:11) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush left for 1 yard gain to the ALA32 (#31 K.Keeley)Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+8
91.7%
(08:33) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ALA24 (#41 N.Hill-Green)Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+24
95.4%
(07:52) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep left to #13 E.Sarratt caught at ALA00, for 24 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:46, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:515% → 4%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.4%
(07:46) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete short left to #26 J.Miller caught at ALA20, for 1 yard to the ALA26 (#17 D.Ndukwe), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
95.5%
(07:09) Shotgun #10 A.Mack rush right for 13 yards gain to the ALA39 (#4 A.Fisher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
95.7%
(06:32) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ALA41 (#46 I.Jones; #4 A.Fisher)Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+34
95.9%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete deep right to #5 G.Bernard caught at IND36, for 34 yards to the IND25, out of bounds at IND25, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
96.2%
(05:13) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete short right to #80 J.Cuevas caught at IND09, for 16 yards to the IND09, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
96.2%
(04:38) Shotgun #10 A.Mack rush left for 4 yards gain to the IND05 (#12 D.Boykin)Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
96.8%
(03:53) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete short right to #4 D.Hill caught at IND10, for 5 yards loss to the IND10, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 2:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
97.0%
(02:50) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass incomplete short right to #17 L.Brooks thrown to IND03 QB hurried by #21 R.HardySimilar
Q3 2:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
96.5%
(02:45) #31 C.Talty field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #44 A.Rozier), clock 02:44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1897% → 100%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
(02:42) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 0 yards to the IND25 (#22 L.Overton)Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.6%
(02:05) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush left for 2 yards gain to the IND27 (#13 I.Taylor)Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+31
97.8%
(01:22) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #37 R.Nowakowski caught at IND31, for 31 yards to the ALA42 (#2 Z.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
98.1%
(00:37) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 15 yards gain to the ALA27 (#18 B.Hubbard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
98.3%
(15:00) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ALA25 (#96 T.Keenan III)Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+25
99.8%
(14:27) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush right for 25 yards gain to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:21, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
(14:21) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass incomplete short right thrown to ALA42 QB hurried by #46 I.JonesSimilar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.8%
(14:11) Shotgun #10 A.Mack sacked for loss of 10 yards to the ALA15 (#6 M.Kamara)Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
99.8%
(13:30) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass incomplete deep right thrown to ALA36Similar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
99.8%
(13:27) #38 B.Doud punt 48 yards to the IND37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 2:39100% → 100%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
99.8%
(13:17) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 2 yards loss to the IND35 (#41 N.Hill-Green)Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+4
99.8%
(12:42) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IND39 (#10 J.Jefferson)Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+38
99.8%
(12:03) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep right to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at ALA33, for 38 yards to the ALA23 (#7 D.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
99.8%
(11:19) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush right for 5 yards gain to the ALA18 (#22 L.Overton)Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
(10:39) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 18 yards gain to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:33, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17DOWNS
13 plays · 42 yds · 4:380% → 0%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
(10:32) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete short right to #1 I.Horton caught at ALA35, for 10 yards to the ALA35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete short right to #1 I.Horton caught at ALA39, for 6 yards to the ALA41 (#21 R.Hardy), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
99.9%
(09:28) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass incomplete short right to #28 K.Riley thrown to ALA41 broken up by #95 T.TuckerSimilar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+8
99.9%
(09:22) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete short left to #5 G.Bernard caught at ALA49, for 8 yards to the ALA49, out of bounds at ALA49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
99.9%
(08:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete short right to #4 D.Hill caught at ALA44, for 1 yard to the ALA50 (#12 D.Boykin; #4 A.Fisher), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 9
50
-8
99.9%
(08:03) Shotgun #10 A.Mack sacked for loss of 8 yards to the ALA42 (#12 D.Boykin)Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+26
99.9%
(07:25) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete short left to #2 R.Williams caught at ALA35, for 26 yards to the IND32 (#0 H.Wheeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
99.9%
(06:48) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete short right to #2 R.Williams caught at IND37, for 7 yards to the IND25 (#1 A.Ferrell), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
99.9%
(06:26) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass incomplete short right to #28 K.Riley thrown to IND26 QB hurried by #21 R.HardySimilar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-1
99.9%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete short right to #4 D.Hill caught at IND31, for 1 yard loss to the IND26 (#21 R.Hardy)Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 4
OPP 26
-7
99.9%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Mack sacked for loss of 7 yards to the IND33 (#4 A.Fisher), fumble by #10 A.Mack recovered by ALA #10 A.Mack at IND33, End Of Play, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18END OF GAME
12 plays · 16 yds · 4:54100% → 100%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.9%
(05:40) Shotgun #28 K.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IND37 (#8 J.Hill)Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
(04:55) Shotgun #28 K.Martin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IND39 (#22 L.Overton)Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
(04:09) Shotgun #16 A.Mendoza rush left for 5 yards gain to the IND44 (#12 Z.Mincey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.9%
(03:26) Shotgun #16 A.Mendoza rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IND45 (#13 I.Taylor)Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
(02:45) Shotgun #28 K.Martin rush right for 4 yards gain to the IND49 (#9 C.Calhoun; #12 Z.Mincey), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+1
100.0%
(02:04) Shotgun #28 K.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IND50 (#36 Q.Reese). #11 J.Renaud injured on the playSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 4
50
+5
100.0%
PENALTY ALA Offside (#18 B.Hubbard) 5 yards from IND50 to ALA45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
99.9%
(02:00) Kneel down by #16 A.Mendoza at ALA47 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 12
OPP 47
-2
100.0%
(01:21) Kneel down by #16 A.Mendoza at ALA49 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 14
OPP 49
-2
100.0%
(00:41) Kneel down by #16 A.Mendoza at IND49 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 2:00
(02:00) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ALA44 (#1 D.Jackson), 1ST DOWN
+9.2
TD · Q2 10:49
(10:55) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep middle to #80 C.Becker caught at ALA00, for 21 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:49, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)
+4.1
TD · Q3 7:46
(07:52) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep left to #13 E.Sarratt caught at ALA00, for 24 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:46, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com