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IU

Indiana 30 at Oregon 20

ORE
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:58 · Mitch McCarthy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the ORE 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Pregame prior+19.3Home team on offense−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 7:10: Atticus Sappington 33 yd FG GOOD — ORE win probability +5.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:16: Roman Hemby run for 2 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +20.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:42: Fernando Mendoza pass intercepted Brandon Finney Jr. return for 35 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORE win probability +27.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:23: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 8 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +30.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:06: Brendan Franke 22 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +5.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 10 of 11IU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:09ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:42IU 4th & 12 at ORE 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:16ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:58IU 4th & 20 at IU 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:26ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.2%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:18ORE 4th & 9 at IU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:00IU 4th & 6 at IU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:00IU 4th & 6 at IU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:39ORE 4th & 22 at ORE 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−2.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:19IU 4th & 8 at ORE 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:24ORE 4th & 5 at IU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:38IU 4th & 11 at IU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:25ORE 4th & 8 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:29IU 4th & 8 at IU 4, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−2.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:58ORE 4th & 9 at IU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:10ORE 4th & 2 at IU 16, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%−1.4
    81% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−11.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:09ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−5.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:06IU 4th & 3 at ORE 4, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−7.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:32IU 4th & 22 at ORE 39, up 10
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.6%−1.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%
    36% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−0.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:11ORE 4th & 1 at IU 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:15ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:15IU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:16IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:42ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:23IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:4473% → 72%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
72.5%
Dante Moore sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the ORE 18Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+6
72.4%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the ORE 24Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
72.3%
Dante Moore pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 13 yds to the ORE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
72.3%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the ORE 42Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
72.3%
Dante Moore pass complete to Noah Whittington for 3 yds to the ORE 45Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
72.2%
Jay Harris run for 1 yd to the ORE 46Similar
Q1 11:09
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
72.0%
Jordon Davison run for no gain to the ORE 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:2029% → 29%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+24
71.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 24 yds to the ORE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
71.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to E.J. Williams Jr.Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
71.2%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the ORE 19Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
71.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Elijah SarrattSimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 7
OPP 19
-5
71.4%
PENALTY IND False Start (Coogan,Pat) 5 yards from ORE19 to ORE24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+42
71.4%
Nico Radicic 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1671% → 70%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Dierre Hill Jr. run for no gain to the ORE 25Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
70.7%
Dante Moore pass complete to Jordon Davison for no gain to the ORE 25Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
70.4%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Malik BensonSimilar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
70.2%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 53 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for no gain to the IU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:0729% → 29%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
70.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 6 yds to the IU 28Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
70.3%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the IU 31Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-5
70.2%
PENALTY IND False Start (Evans,Drew) 5 yards from IND31 to IND26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-9
70.5%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by A'Mauri Washington for a loss of 9 yards to the IU 17Similar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 15
OWN 17
-5
70.7%
PENALTY IND Delay Of Game (McCarthy,Mitch) 5 yards from IND17 to IND12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 20
OWN 12
0
70.7%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the ORE 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:3071% → 73%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
70.5%
Dakorien Moore run for 7 yds to the IU 44Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
70.5%
Dante Moore pass complete to Jordon Davison for no gain to the IU 44Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+44
72.5%
Dante Moore pass complete to Malik Benson for 44 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:5228% → 34%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.9%
Kaelon Black run for 5 yds to the IU 30Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
71.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 11 yds to the IU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
71.1%
Kaelon Black run for 14 yds to the ORE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
70.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 11 yds to the ORE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
70.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 11 yds to the ORE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
69.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for no gain to the ORE 23Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
69.7%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the ORE 17Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+14
69.9%
Fernando Mendoza run for 14 yds to the ORE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
66.1%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 5:4268% → 69%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.6%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
68.5%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Kenyon SadiqSimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
67.3%
Dante Moore run for 2 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q2 14:26
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+8
66.9%
Jordon Davison run for 8 yds to the ORE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
68.4%
Jordon Davison run for 26 yds to the IU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
69.3%
Jordon Davison run for 2 yds to the IU 30Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-10
69.2%
Oregon Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the IU 38Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 16
OPP 38
+5
67.5%
Dante Moore pass complete to Jordon Davison for 5 yds to the IU 33Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+10
67.7%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Moore,Dante pass complete short middle to Limar,Jayden caught at IND40, for 3 yards loss to the IND36 (Tucker,Tyrique) PENALTY IND Holding (Sharpe,Jamari) 10 yards from IND33 to IND23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
68.9%
Jayden Limar run for 4 yds to the IU 19Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
68.7%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Jamari JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-3
67.4%
Dante Moore sacked by Aiden Fisher for a loss of 3 yards to the IU 22Similar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
69.0%
Atticus Sappington 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 1:0433% → 33%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 9 yds to the IU 34Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
65.8%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the IU 34Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
65.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Elijah SarrattSimilar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
66.8%
PENALTY IND False Start (Benson,Kahlil) 5 yards from IND34 to IND29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
67.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 41 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 1 yd to the ORE 31Similar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
67.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 41 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 1 yd to the ORE 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1269% → 67%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
68.9%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 14 yds to the ORE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.2%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Noah WhittingtonSimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
69.2%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Malik BensonSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-12
68.1%
Dante Moore sacked by Isaiah Jones for a loss of 12 yards to the ORE 23Similar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 22
OWN 23
0
67.2%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the IU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:1335% → 35%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
65.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 16 yds to the IU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
63.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 11 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
62.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Charlie BeckerSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
62.8%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the ORE 41Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
62.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Roman HembySimilar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
64.6%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:4668% → 69%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
68.0%
Dante Moore pass complete to Jayden Limar for 5 yds to the ORE 16Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+9
68.0%
Jordon Davison run for 9 yds to the ORE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.0%
Jayden Limar run for 6 yds to the ORE 31Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
68.9%
Jayden Limar run for 7 yds to the ORE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
68.8%
Dante Moore pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 3 yds to the ORE 41Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+18
69.2%
Dante Moore pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 18 yds to the IU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
70.2%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 18 yds to the IU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
71.2%
PENALTY ORE Illegal Snap (Laloulu,Iapani) 5 yards from IND23 to IND28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+7
70.6%
Jordon Davison run for 7 yds to the IU 21Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
71.2%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Kenyon SadiqSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+3
69.9%
Jordon Davison run for 3 yds to the IU 18Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
68.5%
Atticus Sappington 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:1736% → 45%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
63.6%
Roman Hemby run for 14 yds to the IU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
63.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 11 yds to the IU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
61.4%
(00:08) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete deep right to Hemby,Roman thrown to ORE35 PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (Jackson,Devon) 15 yards from IND45 to ORE40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+58
54.8%
Brendan Franke 58 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1642% → 40%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
58.4%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 3 yards to the IU 22Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
58.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Elijah SarrattSimilar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+2
59.6%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the IU 24Similar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
60.2%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the ORE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:0560% → 57%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
59.6%
Dante Moore pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 13 yds to the ORE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
61.7%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 4 yds to the IU 48Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-5
62.0%
Oregon Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+3
58.2%
Dante Moore pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 8
50
0
57.2%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5342% → 40%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
57.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Elijah SarrattSimilar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+2
57.9%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the IU 4Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
58.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Elijah SarrattSimilar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+7
59.8%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 41 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 7 yds to the IU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:1061% → 66%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
61.4%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 3 yds to the IU 35Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-2
62.5%
Dierre Hill Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the IU 37Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
59.9%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Dakorien MooreSimilar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+13
56.4%
Dante Moore pass complete to Jeremiah McClellan for 13 yds to the IU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
62.2%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Jeremiah McClellanSimilar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
62.0%
Jordon Davison run for 4 yds to the IU 20Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+4
60.0%
Dante Moore pass complete to Jordon Davison for 4 yds to the IU 16Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
65.7%
Atticus Sappington 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4739% → 68%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.8%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the IU 26Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
60.7%
(06:31) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete short middle to Williams Jr.,E.J. thrown to IND37, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (Obidegwu,Ify) 11 yard from IND26 to IND37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
59.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 5 yds to the IU 42Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
57.0%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the IU 44 Kaelon Black fumbled, recovered by IUSimilar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+9
57.1%
Fernando Mendoza run for 9 yds to the ORE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
55.2%
Roman Hemby run for 8 yds to the ORE 39Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+11
54.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 11 yds to the ORE 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-4
53.0%
Omar Cooper Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the ORE 32Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+22
55.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Roman Hemby for 22 yds to the ORE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
52.4%
(02:21) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete short left to Sarratt,Elijah thrown to ORE00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (Obidegwu,Ify) 8 yards from ORE10 to ORE02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
32.4%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:5841% → 34%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.9%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the ORE 31Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
42.6%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
41.4%
Dante Moore run for 4 yds to the ORE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
39.0%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Malik BensonSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-1
38.3%
Dierre Hill Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 37Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 37
-4
35.6%
Dante Moore sacked by Kellan Wyatt for a loss of 4 yards to the ORE 33Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
33.5%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the IU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19INT TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:1769% → 42%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
31.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 1 yd to the IU 15Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+7
31.2%
Fernando Mendoza run for 7 yds to the IU 22Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 2
OWN 22
-35
58.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass intercepted Brandon Finney Jr. return for 35 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:1143% → 82%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.0%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the IU 27Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
56.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 9 yds to the IU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
54.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Roman Hemby for 3 yds to the IU 39Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
52.7%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the IU 42Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
52.3%
(10:22) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass complete short middle to Nowakowski,Riley caught at IND45, for 0 yards to the IND42 PENALTY ORE Offside (Alexander,Bear) 5 yards from IND42 to IND47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
51.3%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the IU 49Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
50.8%
Kaelon Black run for 7 yds to the ORE 44Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-5
50.2%
PENALTY IND False Start (Benson,Kahlil) 5 yards from ORE44 to ORE49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+13
51.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 13 yds to the ORE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
49.9%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-5
47.4%
PENALTY IND False Start (Evans,Drew) 5 yards from ORE32 to ORE37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+29
48.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 29 yds to the ORE 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
45.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Omar Cooper Jr.Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
45.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Holden StaesSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
17.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 8 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:1226% → 24%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
25.7%
Oregon Penalty, Illegal Shift (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
24.0%
Dante Moore pass intercepted Louis Moore return for no gain to the ORE 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22FG
14 plays · 28 yds · 3:5784% → 96%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
15.7%
PENALTY IND False Start (Nowakowski,Riley) 5 yards from ORE32 to ORE37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+8
16.2%
Fernando Mendoza run for 8 yds to the ORE 29Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+3
13.3%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the ORE 26Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+4
13.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 4 yds to the ORE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
11.3%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the ORE 16Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+5
11.2%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the ORE 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
9.5%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 12Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+3
8.5%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the ORE 9Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+5
8.1%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the ORE 4Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
4.5%
Brendan Franke 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.3%
Dante Moore pass intercepted Isaiah Jones return for no gain to the ORE 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · -17 yds · 1:2897% → 98%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
3.1%
F. Mendoza takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 12
OPP 29
-5
3.2%
F. Mendoza takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 17
OPP 34
-5
2.2%
F. Mendoza takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 22
OPP 39
-5
2.3%
F. Mendoza takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:284% → 5%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
3.5%
Dante Moore pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 3 yds to the ORE 47Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
3.5%
Dante Moore pass complete to Noah Whittington for 6 yds to the IU 47Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
3.7%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Noah WhittingtonSimilar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+8
3.3%
Dante Moore pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 8 yds to the IU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
3.8%
Dante Moore pass complete to Noah Whittington for 6 yds to the IU 33Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
4.8%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Dakorien MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:23
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 8 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
-30.8
TD · Q4 12:42
Fernando Mendoza pass intercepted Brandon Finney Jr. return for 35 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
+27
TD · Q3 2:16
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
-20
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com