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MIA

Miami 21 at Indiana 27

IU
2025 · College Football Playoff National Championship · Jan 19, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:24 · (06:24) #44 M.McCarthy punt 55 yards to the Miami04 #10 M.Toney return 3 yards to the Miami07 (#12 D.Boykin)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Pregame prior+6.1Home team on offense+3.9Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score differential+0.5Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:06: (11:05) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 57 yards gain to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:06, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +14.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 5:04: Punt by JOYCE, Dylan at the MIAMI16 is blocked by KAMARA, Mikail, recovered by IND JONES, Isaiah at the MIAMI0, TOUCHDOWN IND, clock 05:04 — IU win probability +14.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:57: (14:50) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:57, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +18.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 9:18: F. Mendoza run for 12 yds, for a TD (N. Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +10.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:37: Malachi Toney 22 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick) — MIA win probability +27.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:16MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:22IU 4th & 8 at IU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:48MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:42IU 4th & 6 at MIA 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:38MIA 4th & 17 at MIA 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:46IU 4th & 11 at IU 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:57MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:44MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.1%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:33MIA 4th & 2 at IU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:52IU 4th & 17 at IU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−3.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:02IU 4th & 3 at IU 47, up 3
    Close callPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:09MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:24IU 4th & 12 at IU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−2.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:04MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 16, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:55IU 4th & 5 at MIA 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    71.3%−2.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−2.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:18IU 4th & 4 at MIA 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    72.7%−1.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    55.8%−18.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:42IU 4th & 4 at MIA 17, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%−0.6
    80% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−20.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 6:13IU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:06MIA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:04IU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:57MIA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:18IU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:37MIA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2533% → 33%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
67.1%
(14:55) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Miami37 (#22 J.Sharpe; #7 L.Moore)Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+6
67.0%
(14:04) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #10 M.Toney caught at Miami34, for 6 yards to the Miami43 (#22 J.Sharpe), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
66.9%
(13:37) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the Miami45 (#5 D.Ponds)Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
66.8%
(12:58) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short right to #10 M.Toney thrown to Miami48Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+3
66.8%
(13:02) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #10 M.Toney caught at Miami47, for 3 yards to the Miami48 (#21 R.Hardy)Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
66.8%
(12:12) #94 D.Joyce punt 47 yards to the IND05 fair catch by #0 J.Brady at IND05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:3567% → 66%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
66.8%
(12:16) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at IND09, for 11 yards to the IND16 (#7 Z.Poyser), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
66.8%
(11:36) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush right for 1 yard gain to the IND17 (#8 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+1
66.7%
(11:00) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #1 R.Hemby caught at IND16, for 1 yard to the IND18 (#1 M.Toure), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
66.4%
(10:28) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete deep right thrown to IND40 QB hurried by #12 M.LightfootSimilar
Q1 10:22
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+1
66.3%
(10:21) #44 M.McCarthy punt 50 yards to the Miami32 #10 M.Toney return 9 yards to the Miami41 (#46 I.Jones) PENALTY Miami Holding (#22 C.Pruitt) 10 yards from Miami33 to Miami23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1933% → 33%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
66.6%
(10:12) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the Miami27 (#97 M.Landino)Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
66.4%
(09:33) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami28 (#97 M.Landino; #6 M.Kamara)Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
66.5%
(08:49) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short right to #0 K.Marion thrown to Miami42 broken up by #7 L.MooreSimilar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
66.6%
(08:44) #94 D.Joyce punt 43 yards to the IND29 fair catch by #0 J.Brady at IND29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 6:0667% → 67%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
67.0%
(08:48) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete deep right to #80 C.Becker thrown to Miami48 QB hurried by #99 A.Moten PENALTY IND Holding (#67 K.Benson) 10 yards from IND29 to IND19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+25
66.9%
(08:28) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at IND29, for 25 yards to the IND44 (#29 R.Frederique, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
67.5%
(07:51) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush right for 6 yards gain to the IND50 (#1 M.Toure)Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 4
50
+5
67.6%
(07:18) PENALTY IND False Start (#74 B.Lynch) 5 yards from IND50 to IND45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+10
67.5%
(07:01) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #13 E.Sarratt caught at IND49, for 10 yards to the Miami45 (#24 E.O'Connor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
67.8%
(06:31) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Miami42 (#31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+9
67.8%
(05:53) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #37 R.Nowakowski caught at Miami35, for 9 yards to the Miami33 (#10 R.Aguirre, Jr.; #1 M.Toure), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
68.0%
(05:13) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #13 E.Sarratt caught at Miami28, for 6 yards to the Miami27, out of bounds at Miami27Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
68.1%
(04:44) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete short right to #80 C.Becker thrown to Miami20 QB hurried by #1 M.ToureSimilar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+7
67.7%
(04:41) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Miami20 (#8 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
68.1%
(04:02) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush right for 2 yards gain to the Miami18 (#0 K.Scott)Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+2
68.2%
(03:21) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Miami16 (#5 J.Scott)Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
67.8%
(02:40) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete short right to #80 C.Becker thrown to Miami00 broken up by #29 R.Frederique, Jr.Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
67.1%
(02:35) #15 N.Radicic field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston), clock 02:42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5333% → 32%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
66.8%
(02:36) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short right to #87 A.Bauman thrown to Miami45 broken up by #21 R.HardySimilar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
66.9%
(02:20) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short right to #7 C.Daniels thrown to Miami33 broken up by #5 D.PondsSimilar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-7
67.3%
(02:17) Shotgun #11 C.Beck sacked for loss of 7 yards to the Miami19 (#4 A.Fisher)Similar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
67.8%
(01:39) #94 D.Joyce punt 54 yards to the IND27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:3767% → 65%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
66.5%
(01:28) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush left for 6 yards loss to the IND21 (#4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+1
66.3%
(00:50) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush left for 1 yard gain to the IND22 (#99 A.Moten)Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+4
65.6%
(00:07) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #1 R.Hemby caught at IND18, for 4 yards to the IND26 (#12 M.Lightfoot; #8 J.Thomas)Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+3
65.1%
(14:44) #44 M.McCarthy punt 46 yards to the Miami28 #10 M.Toney return 3 yards to the Miami31, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2534% → 33%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
65.6%
C. Brown run for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
66.4%
(12:57) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami32 (#1 A.Ferrell)Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+7
66.5%
(12:57) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at Miami36, for 7 yards to the Miami39 (#7 L.Moore)Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
65.6%
(12:57) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the Miami39 (#6 M.Kamara)Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
66.8%
(12:57) #94 D.Joyce punt 46 yards to the IND15 fair catch by #0 J.Brady at IND15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8TD
18 plays · 85 yds · 6:2866% → 74%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
66.1%
(12:57) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #13 E.Sarratt caught at IND20, for 12 yards to the IND27 (#29 R.Frederique, Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
66.3%
(12:17) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete short middle to #13 E.Sarratt thrown to IND38 broken up by #29 R.Frederique, Jr.Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
66.1%
(12:24) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #37 R.Nowakowski caught at IND30, for 8 yards to the IND35 (#24 E.O'Connor), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+4
66.4%
(11:33) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IND39 (#4 R.Bain Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
66.9%
(10:58) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush left for 1 yard gain to the IND40 (#31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+3
66.8%
(10:23) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IND43 (#11 D.Blay)Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+11
66.8%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete short left to #13 E.Sarratt thrown to Miami43 QB hurried by #4 R.Bain Jr., 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Miami Pass Interference (#29 R.Frederique, Jr.) 11 yard from IND43 to Miami46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
68.2%
(09:54) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush right for 3 yards loss to the Miami49 (#99 A.Moten)Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+1
67.0%
(09:21) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami48 (#1 M.Toure; #4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+5
65.9%
(08:57) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete deep right to #3 O.Cooper Jr. thrown to Miami26 QB hurried by #4 R.Bain Jr. PENALTY Miami Offside (#4 R.Bain Jr.) 5 yards from Miami48 to Miami43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+20
67.3%
(08:54) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 20 yards gain to the Miami23 (#13 B.Fitzgerald; #0 K.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
68.5%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at Miami24, for 3 yards to the Miami20 (#7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+15
69.2%
(07:56) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #80 C.Becker caught at Miami14, for 15 yards to the Miami05 (#8 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down by contact". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (07:56) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #80 C.Becker caught at Miami14, for 20 yards to the Miami00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:56, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
69.2%
(07:30) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami04 (#1 M.Toure; #5 J.Scott)Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
69.3%
(06:44) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Miami01 (#4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.3%
(06:07) #37 R.Nowakowski rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:13 #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 5:2625% → 24%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.1%
(06:03) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Miami30 (#7 L.Moore; #95 T.Tucker)Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
74.8%
(05:07) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Miami34 (#46 I.Jones)Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
75.0%
(04:33) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the Miami34 (#6 M.Kamara)Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
76.3%
(03:49) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami35 (#0 H.Wheeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
75.7%
(03:04) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep left to #7 C.Daniels caught at IND45, for 25 yards to the IND40 (#5 D.Ponds), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
74.9%
(02:32) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at IND42, for 2 yards to the IND38 (#21 R.Hardy; #17 D.Ndukwe)Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
75.2%
(01:48) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 0 yards to the IND38 (#5 D.Ponds)Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+6
75.7%
(01:15) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at IND40, for 6 yards to the IND32 (#6 M.Kamara)Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+50
76.1%
(00:26) #38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker), clock 00:33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:1679% → 80%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
78.5%
(00:23) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 6 yards gain to the IND38 (#1 M.Toure)Similar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
50
0
79.7%
Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete deep right to #80 C.Becker thrown to Miami00 QB hurried by #3 A.MesidorSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+12
79.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #80 C.Becker caught at Miami50, for 12 yards to the IND50, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:5478% → 77%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.8%
(14:50) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush right for 0 yards to the IND25 (#7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
77.7%
(14:17) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza sacked for loss of 7 yards to the IND18 (#3 A.Mesidor)Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+5
77.0%
(13:41) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IND23 (#12 M.Lightfoot) PENALTY Miami Face Mask (#18 A.Blount) 15 yards from IND23 to IND38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
79.3%
(13:16) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IND39 (#0 K.Scott)Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
80.0%
(12:42) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete deep left to #13 E.Sarratt thrown to Miami39Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-8
78.9%
(12:36) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza sacked for loss of 8 yards to the IND31 (#4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 17
OWN 31
+18
77.4%
(11:53) #44 M.McCarthy punt 49 yards to the Miami20 #10 M.Toney return 18 yards to the Miami38 (#34 J.Utzinger), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:2522% → 36%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
77.9%
(11:41) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #10 M.Toney caught at Miami43, for 5 yards to the Miami43 (#21 R.Hardy; #4 A.Fisher)Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+57
63.6%
(11:05) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 57 yards gain to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:06, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4767% → 68%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
67.3%
(10:53) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush right for 15 yards gain to the IND40 (#7 Z.Poyser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
69.1%
(10:20) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IND45 (#1 M.Toure)Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
70.3%
(09:44) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush right for 2 yards gain to the IND47 (#1 M.Toure)Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
69.6%
(09:03) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete short left to #13 E.Sarratt thrown to Miami49 broken up by #1 M.ToureSimilar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
68.1%
(08:57) #44 M.McCarthy punt 41 yards to the Miami12 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at Miami12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3933% → 31%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
66.7%
(08:52) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami13 (#97 M.Landino)Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
66.9%
(08:14) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short left to #10 M.Toney thrown to Miami16Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
68.1%
(08:11) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short middle to #7 C.Daniels thrown to Miami25 broken up by #22 J.SharpeSimilar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
69.1%
(08:06) #94 D.Joyce punt 44 yards to the IND43, out of bounds at IND43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2770% → 66%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
70.1%
(08:09) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza sacked for loss of 8 yards to the IND35 (#3 A.Mesidor)Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+6
67.6%
(07:15) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 6 yards gain to the IND41 (#7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 12
OWN 41
0
67.0%
(06:29) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete short left to #13 E.Sarratt thrown to Miami42Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 12
OWN 41
+3
66.0%
(06:24) #44 M.McCarthy punt 55 yards to the Miami04 #10 M.Toney return 3 yards to the Miami07 (#12 D.Boykin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0633% → 17%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
67.0%
(06:14) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Miami10 (#4 A.Fisher; #7 L.Moore)Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
66.9%
(05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short left to #0 K.Marion thrown to Miami15 broken up by #46 I.JonesSimilar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+6
68.4%
(05:46) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #10 M.Toney caught at Miami14, for 6 yards to the Miami16 (#7 L.Moore)Similar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
82.9%
Punt by JOYCE, Dylan at the MIAMI16 is blocked by KAMARA, Mikail, recovered by IND JONES, Isaiah at the MIAMI0, TOUCHDOWN IND, clock 05:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:4218% → 37%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
82.0%
(05:00) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #4 M.Fletcher Jr. caught at Miami23, for 8 yards to the Miami27 (#12 D.Boykin; #4 A.Fisher)Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+10
81.1%
(04:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 10 yards gain to the Miami37 (#22 J.Sharpe), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
81.3%
(03:48) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete deep right to #87 A.Bauman thrown to IND43 broken up by #5 D.PondsSimilar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
81.5%
(03:42) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush left for 4 yards gain to the Miami41 (#7 L.Moore)Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+24
81.6%
(03:00) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep left to #7 C.Daniels caught at IND39, for 24 yards to the IND35 (#22 J.Sharpe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
79.0%
(02:11) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #3 J.Moore caught at IND34, for 1 yard to the IND34, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+22
79.5%
(01:30) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at IND37, for 22 yards to the IND12 (#7 L.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
80.5%
(00:42) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IND09 (#5 D.Ponds)Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+6
80.7%
(00:04) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the IND03 (#12 D.Boykin)Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
62.6%
(14:50) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:57, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:2468% → 87%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.7%
(14:47) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IND27 (#41 C.Smith)Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
71.5%
(14:10) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 13 yards gain to the IND40 (#41 C.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
73.7%
(13:33) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete short right to #3 O.Cooper Jr. thrown to IND43 broken up by #24 E.O'ConnorSimilar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
72.6%
(13:40) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at IND38, for 18 yards to the Miami42 (#31 W.Bissainthe), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
75.3%
(12:48) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami41 (#4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+4
75.2%
(12:08) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush left for 4 yards gain to the Miami37 (#3 A.Mesidor; #31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
74.7%
(11:22) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete deep right to #3 O.Cooper Jr. thrown to Miami11Similar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+19
72.9%
(11:18) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #80 C.Becker caught at Miami18, for 19 yards to the Miami18, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
77.1%
(10:39) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Miami14 (#8 J.Thomas; #5 J.Scott)Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
77.4%
(10:01) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Miami12 (#8 J.Thomas; #99 A.Moten)Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
76.0%
(09:21) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass incomplete short middle to #7 E.Williams Jr. thrown to Miami00Similar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+12
87.3%
F. Mendoza run for 12 yds, for a TD (N. Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 2:1511% → 41%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
89.1%
(09:01) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #10 M.Toney caught at Miami10, for 8 yards to the Miami17 (#12 D.Boykin)Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+3
88.7%
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Miami20 (#97 M.Landino), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.0%
(08:00) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete deep left to #0 K.Marion thrown to Miami41Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
89.3%
(07:53) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete deep left to #0 K.Marion thrown to IND36 broken up by #5 D.PondsSimilar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
90.1%
(07:55) PENALTY Miami False Start (#63 S.Okunlola) 5 yards from Miami20 to Miami15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+22
90.8%
(07:45) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #87 A.Bauman caught at Miami31, for 22 yards to the Miami37 (#22 J.Sharpe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+41
88.7%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #10 M.Toney caught at Miami49, for 41 yards to the IND22 (#5 D.Ponds), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
86.4%
(06:39) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short middle to #4 M.Fletcher Jr. thrown to IND21Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
58.7%
Malachi Toney 22 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20FG
17 plays · 58 yds · 4:4175% → 95%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.8%
(06:27) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IND28 (#1 M.Toure; #99 A.Moten)Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
74.8%
(05:44) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush right for 3 yards gain to the IND31 (#4 R.Bain Jr.; #7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
74.0%
(05:00) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at IND32, for 14 yards to the IND45 (#24 E.O'Connor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
81.4%
(04:22) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush left for 5 yards gain to the IND50 (#31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 5
50
-2
83.4%
(03:39) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush middle for 2 yards loss to the IND48 (#31 W.Bissainthe; #4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+19
86.5%
(02:56) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short right to #80 C.Becker caught at Miami33, for 19 yards to the Miami33 (#24 E.O'Connor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
89.1%
(02:10) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush right for 10 yards gain to the Miami23 (#24 E.O'Connor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
87.1%
(02:00) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Miami14 (#31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+5
87.1%
(01:56) PENALTY IND False Start (#65 C.Smith) 5 yards from Miami14 to Miami19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+1
89.7%
(01:56) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami18 (#99 A.Moten)Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+1
88.6%
(01:41) Shotgun #8 K.Black rush left for 1 yard gain to the Miami17 (#31 W.Bissainthe; #1 M.Toure)Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
95.3%
(01:35) #15 N.Radicic field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston), clock 01:42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21INT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:5810% → 4%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.8%
PENALTY Miami Delay Of Game 5 yards from Miami25 to Miami20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
90.7%
(01:42) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short middle to #87 A.Bauman thrown to Miami21 QB hurried by #95 T.TuckerSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
91.0%
(01:26) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short right to #7 C.Daniels thrown to Miami39 PENALTY IND Roughing The Passer (#97 M.Landino) 15 yards from Miami20 to Miami35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
89.2%
(01:22) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #6 C.Brown caught at Miami36, for 11 yards to the Miami46 (#21 R.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
86.1%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at IND41, for 6 yards to the IND41 (#22 J.Sharpe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
88.7%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at IND47, for 7 yards to the IND47 (#46 I.Jones)Similar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
96.5%
#11 C. Beck pass deep to the left intercepted by Sharpe, Jamari at the IND6. Sharpe return for 0 yards to the IND6Similar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
96.5%
PENALTY IND UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#22 J.Sharpe) 3 yards from IND06 to IND03. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:3597% → 96%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
96.5%
Kneel down by #15 F.Mendoza at IND02 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 11
OWN 2
0
96.4%
#15 F.Mendoza rush middle for 0 yards to the IND02 (#1 M.Toure)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:37
Malachi Toney 22 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)
-27.7
TD · Q4 14:57
(14:50) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:57, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)
-18.1
TD · Q3 5:04
Punt by JOYCE, Dylan at the MIAMI16 is blocked by KAMARA, Mikail, recovered by IND JONES, Isaiah at the MIAMI0, TOUCHDOWN IND, clock 05:04
+14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com