2025 · Week 3 · Sep 12, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadINST aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreINST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:28 · Nico Radicic 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:42: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:42: Timeout Indiana, clock 04:42 — INST win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: INST has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:07: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 10:28: Nico Radicic 25 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 10:28: Timeout Indiana, clock 10:28 — INST win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: INST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2INST made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
- Q1 9:55INST 4th & 11 at INST 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q1 3:09INST 4th & 3 at INST 32, down 14Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.1%average punt
- Q2 14:05INST 4th & 13 at INST 22, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q2 10:28IU 4th & 7 at INST 7, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%91% to makePunt98.7%−0.5average punt
- Q2 9:20INST 4th & 9 at INST 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 9:20INST 4th & 9 at INST 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 5:36INST 4th & 22 at INST 13, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 2:27INST 4th & 1 at INST 45, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:48INST 4th & 6 at INST 29, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 13:13INST 4th & 8 at INST 17, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 10:01INST 4th & 20 at INST 35, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:13INST 4th & 8 at INST 27, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 13:05INST 4th & 2 at IU 46, down 66Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%57% to convertField goal-0.1%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:31IU 4th & 6 at IU 5, up 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 8:31INST 4th & 12 at IU 45, down 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.123% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 11:22IU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:42IU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:07IU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:56IU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:03IU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:51IU Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:51IU Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:15IU Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:22IU Touchdown, up 65 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:18IU Touchdown, up 72 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIUDrive 1TD9 plays · 66 yds · 3:24100% → 99%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
99.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 14 yds to the IU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
99.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 18 yds to the INST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
99.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 15 yds to the INST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+6
99.4%
Kaelon Black run for 6 yds to the INST 7 Kaelon Black fumbled, recovered by IU Pat Coogan for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q1 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.4%
Keegan Patterson pass complete to Larry Stephens III for 4 yds to the INST 29Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.4%
Keegan Patterson sacked by Tyrique Tucker for a loss of 5 yards to the INST 24Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+13
99.4%
Harry Traum punt for 44 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for 13 yds to the IU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3TD12 plays · 78 yds · 5:0199% → 99%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
99.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 9 yds to the IU 31Similar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
99.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 9 yds to the IU 42Similar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+31
99.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Charlie Becker for 31 yds to the INST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-15
99.3%
(06:44) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete deep left to Sarratt,Elijah thrown to ISU00 PENALTY IND Face Mask (Beebe Jr.,Lee) 15 yards from ISU24 to ISU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 17
OPP 31
+7
99.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 7 yds to the INST 24Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+11
99.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the INST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 4DOWNS6 plays · 6 yds · 1:231% → 1%
IUDrive 5TD6 plays · 31 yds · 1:5399% → 100%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 6 yds to the INST 25Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+13
99.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 13 yds to the INST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+13
99.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:541% → 1%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
Keegan Patterson pass complete to Rashad Rochelle for 6 yds to the INST 31Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
99.4%
Keegan Patterson sacked by Stephen Daley for a loss of 7 yards to the INST 22Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+22
99.4%
Harry Traum punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the INST 44 , Jonathan Brady returns for 22 yds to the INST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7FG11 plays · 37 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
99.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Lee Beebe Jr. for 7 yds to the INST 37Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
99.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 2 yds to the INST 35Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.4%
(10:44) PENALTY IND False Start (Smith,Carter) 5 yards from ISU02 to ISU07. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 1:031% → 1%
IUDrive 9TD4 plays · 65 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
INSTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 2:120% → 0%
Q2 7:08
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
99.6%
Keegan Patterson pass complete to Plez Lawrence for 2 yds to the INST 20Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-7
99.7%
Keegan Patterson sacked by Isaiah Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the INST 13Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+28
99.8%
Spencer Conrad punt for 50 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for 28 yds to the INST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11TD3 plays · 35 yds · 0:23100% → 100%
INSTDrive 12DOWNS7 plays · 20 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.8%
Keegan Patterson pass complete to Larry Stephens III for 2 yds to the INST 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13TD5 plays · 45 yds · 0:24100% → 100%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 31 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q2 1:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Keegan Patterson pass complete to Zack Drawdy Jr. for 2 yds to the INST 29Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Keegan Patterson pass intercepted Amare Ferrell return for no gain to the INST 32Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+6
99.9%
Spencer Conrad punt for 56 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for 6 yds to the IU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q3 14:04
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Keegan Patterson pass complete to Bryan Domino for 3 yds to the INST 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17TD5 plays · 72 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
99.9%
Alberto Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 58 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 1:360% → 0%
IUDrive 19TD11 plays · 70 yds · 3:34100% → 100%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Alberto Mendoza pass complete to Makai Jackson for 4 yds to the IU 34Similar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
99.9%
(09:04) PENALTY IND False Start (Staes,Holden) 5 yards from IND43 to IND38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+13
99.9%
Alberto Mendoza pass complete to Holden Staes for 13 yds to the INST 49Similar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Alberto Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 12 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:450% → 0%
IUDrive 21TD7 plays · 61 yds · 2:39100% → 100%
Q3 3:24
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+11
99.9%
Alberto Mendoza pass complete to LeBron Bond for 11 yds to the INST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
99.9%
(02:56) PENALTY IND False Start (Ajani,Adedamola) 5 yards from ISU43 to ISU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+6
99.9%
Alberto Mendoza pass complete to Makai Jackson for 6 yds to the INST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q3 0:15
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+4
100.0%
Brock Riddle pass complete to Zack Drawdy Jr. for 4 yds to the INST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:520% → 0%
IUDrive 25TD11 plays · 80 yds · 5:55100% → 100%
Q4 6:22
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
100.0%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Makai Jackson for 5 yds to the IU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 26END OF GAME7 plays · 22 yds · 2:040% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 4:42
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 1:07
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 4:42
Timeout Indiana, clock 04:42
-0.1