Virginia

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1564th
  Defense+0.0179th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.6%41st
  Defense37.4%86th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2972nd
  Defense+1.1970th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1885th
  Defense+0.0170th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1852nd
  Defense+0.0876th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense45.6%30th
  Defense44.3%75th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.1%76th
  Defense22.5%99th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0461st
  Defense2.7570th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.1%77th
  Defense19.0%50th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.5%71st
  Defense18.1%84th

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Virginia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   CCU
2. L
   NCSU
3. W
   W&M
4. W
   STAN
5. W
   FSU
6. W
   LOU
7. W
   WSU
8. W
   UNC
9. W
   CAL
10. L
    WAKE
11. W
    DUKE
12. W
    VT
13. L
    DUKE
14. W
    MIZ

Bars above the line: better than expected for Virginia.

Players, 2025

1. Chandler MorrisQB429 plays · +0.197 pts/play · 32nd of 231 QBs
   1.58WAR0.78 to 2.34
2. J'Mari TaylorRB245 plays · +0.096 pts/play · 10th of 365 RBs
   0.44WAR0.30 to 0.58
3. Trell HarrisWR73 plays · +0.267 pts/play · 7th of 451 WRs
   0.36WAR0.21 to 0.52
4. Jahmal EdrineWR57 plays · +0.180 pts/play · 76th of 451 WRs
   0.19WAR0.10 to 0.28
5. Harrison WayleeRB93 plays · +0.090 pts/play · 156th of 365 RBs
   0.16WAR0.11 to 0.20
6. Will BettridgePK20 plays · +0.271 pts/play · 32nd of 112 kickers
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.15
7. Xavier BrownRB44 plays · +0.114 pts/play · 238th of 365 RBs
   0.09WAR0.07 to 0.12
8. Cam RossWR64 plays · +0.039 pts/play · 320th of 451 WRs
   0.05WAR−0.09 to 0.20

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Virginia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  66766762nd of 134Roster talent: 667, 62nd of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17617670th of 134Recruiting: 176, 70th of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  28%28%75th of 132Returning production: 28%, 75th of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +11.1+11.131st of 134SP+ rating: +11.1, 31st of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Virginia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at CALQ4 10:59 4th & 2 at UVA 46, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.8 pts
2. at MIZQ4 1:33 4th & 2 at UVA 48, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
3. at CALQ3 6:16 4th & 4 at UVA 10, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
4. vs FSUQ4 2:18 4th & 3 at UVA 29, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
5. at MIZQ2 3:22 4th & 2 at MIZ 26, down 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
6. at DUKEQ4 5:42 4th & 3 at DUKE 25, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. vs WAKEQ2 4:27 4th & 4 at WAKE 4, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. at CALQ2 1:59 4th & 3 at UVA 41, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

12th of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Virginia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   CCU
2. L

   NCSU
3. W

   W&M
4. W

   STAN
5. W

   FSU
6. W

   LOU
7. W

   WSU
8. W

   UNC
9. W

   CAL
10. L

    WAKE
11. W

    DUKE
12. W

    VT
13. L

    DUKE
14. W

    MIZ

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Virginia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.83
• Possession & field position+0.10
• Clock+0.09
• Timeouts−0.14
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.36

Game by game

• CCUW 48-7 vs CCU81% → 100%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +21, Timeouts +1
• NCSUL 31-35 at NCSU37% → 5%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −31, Timeouts −3
• W&MW 55-16 vs W&M98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +5
• STANW 48-20 vs STAN86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +17
• FSUW 46-38 vs FSU31% → 95%Before kickoff −19 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +35, Clock +3
• LOUW 30-27 at LOU32% → 89%Before kickoff −18 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +52, Possession & field position +3
• WSUW 22-20 vs WSU86% → 91%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts −2
• UNCW 17-16 at UNC78% → 78%Before kickoff +28 · On the field −1: Scoreboard +24, Timeouts +15
• CALW 31-21 at CAL68% → 97%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +39, Clock +2
• WAKEL 9-16 vs WAKE68% → 4%Before kickoff +18 · On the field −64: Scoreboard −55, Clock −3
• DUKEW 34-17 at DUKE34% → 99%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +65: Scoreboard +60, Clock +3
• VTW 27-7 vs VT70% → 100%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +31, Timeouts +1
• DUKEL 20-27 vs DUKE59% → 66%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +7: Timeouts −24, Clock +16
• MIZW 13-7 at MIZ37% → 96%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +57, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Virginia's side.

Closest call

UVA 31-30 WAKE (2024) - Virginia dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.