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STAN

Stanford 20 at Virginia 48

UVA
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · (00:27) Kneel down by Virginia at UVA20 for loss of 2 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:36: Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 27 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +3.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:05: Chandler Morris run for 13 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +4.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:55: Micah Ford run for 3 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +5.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:21: Chandler Morris pass complete to Sage Ennis for 13 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +6.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:18: Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 68 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — STAN win probability +3.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:34STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:56STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:05STAN 4th & 7 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:28UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.2%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:56STAN 4th & 22 at STAN 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:24UVA 4th & 7 at STAN 7, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:11UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:26STAN 4th & 17 at STAN 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:35UVA 4th & 5 at STAN 10, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:14UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 28, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:16STAN 4th & 17 at STAN 17, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:26UVA 4th & 5 at STAN 9, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:58STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:03STAN 4th & 10 at UVA 24, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:08UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:27STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:17UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:36UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:05UVA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:55STAN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:21UVA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:18STAN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:26UVA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1414% → 15%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
85.8%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the STAN 17Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+4
85.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Micah Ford for 4 yds to the STAN 21Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
85.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to C.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
85.5%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UVA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:1985% → 86%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.4%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Trell HarrisSimilar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+20
85.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 20 yds to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
85.4%
J'Mari Taylor run for 8 yds to the STAN 37Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+25
85.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 25 yds to the STAN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
85.3%
J'Mari Taylor run for 6 yds to the STAN 6Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+3
85.2%
J'Mari Taylor run for 3 yds to the STAN 3Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
85.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 3 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:2815% → 17%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
85.4%
Bryce Farrell run for 1 yd to the STAN 25Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+4
85.3%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+6
85.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 6 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+60
85.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 60 yds to the UVA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Benji Blackburn for 5 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
85.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 75 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1415% → 15%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.2%
Cole Tabb run for no gain to the STAN 25Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 4 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
85.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Caden HighSimilar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
85.4%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 43 yds , Cam Ross returns for no gain to the UVA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:1485% → 89%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
85.2%
J'Mari Taylor run for 1 yd to the UVA 29Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+5
85.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 5 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+5
85.0%
PENALTY STN Offside (Rowell,Zach) 5 yards from UVA34 to UVA39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
85.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Sage Ennis for 8 yds to the UVA 47Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+1
85.5%
J'Mari Taylor run for 1 yd to the UVA 48Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
85.2%
J'Mari Taylor run for 4 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
85.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 21 yds to the STAN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
88.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 27 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:1813% → 14%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Benji Blackburn for 1 yd to the STAN 26Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
86.8%
Micah Ford run for 10 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to C.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
86.4%
Micah Ford run for 11 yds to the STAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
86.1%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the STAN 48Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
86.2%
Ben Gulbranson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 7
50
0
86.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Bryce FarrellSimilar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 7
50
0
86.5%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UVA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 5:5589% → 95%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
88.8%
Xavier Brown run for 3 yds to the UVA 15Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+13
89.5%
Xavier Brown run for 13 yds to the UVA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
89.9%
Chandler Morris run for 2 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
90.0%
Xavier Brown run for 6 yds to the UVA 36Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
90.1%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the UVA 37Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+4
90.0%
J'Mari Taylor run for 4 yds to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
90.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 19 yds to the STAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
91.1%
Kameron Courtney run for 6 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+9
91.0%
J'Mari Taylor run for 9 yds to the STAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
91.1%
Chandler Morris run for 6 yds to the STAN 19Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+6
91.0%
Xavier Brown run for 6 yds to the STAN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
95.3%
Chandler Morris run for 13 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:097% → 6%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
93.4%
PENALTY STN Delay Of Game (Gulbranson,Ben) 5 yards from STN25 to STN20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
93.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 8 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
93.4%
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
93.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 12 yds to the STAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
92.9%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the STAN 45Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-5
92.9%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Daniel Rickert for a loss of 5 yards to the STAN 40Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 12
OWN 40
-10
93.6%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Cazeem Moore for a loss of 10 yards to the STAN 30Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 22
OWN 30
+9
93.7%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 45 yds , Cam Ross returns for 9 yds to the UVA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:2496% → 96%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
95.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 14 yds to the UVA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
96.0%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
95.9%
Chandler Morris run for 2 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+19
95.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for 19 yds to the STAN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+40
96.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 40 yds to the STAN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
96.3%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Taylor,J'Mari rush left for 9 yards gain to the STN00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:05 PENALTY UVA Holding (Metcalf,Drake) 10 yards from STN09 to STN19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+12
96.6%
J'Mari Taylor run for 12 yds to the STAN 7Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.2%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Dakota TwittySimilar
Q2 2:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.1%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Cam RossSimilar
Q2 2:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
95.9%
Will Bettridge 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 1:215% → 12%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
95.1%
Micah Ford run for 10 yds to the STAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
95.1%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 29Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+29
95.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 29 yds to the UVA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
94.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 12 yds to the UVA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
94.3%
Sedrick Irvin run for 6 yds to the UVA 24Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+22
94.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 22 yds to the UVA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
94.0%
Sedrick Irvin run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 3Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.3%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:3692% → 90%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 8 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
91.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for 2 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
91.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 2 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
91.6%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Jahmal EdrineSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+5
90.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 5 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
90.1%
Elijah Slibeck punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
90.8%
(00:08) Kneel down by Stanford at STN18 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:2589% → 97%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
88.5%
J'Mari Taylor run for 1 yd to the UVA 33Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
88.4%
J'Mari Taylor run for 6 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
88.6%
J'Mari Taylor run for 5 yds to the UVA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
89.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 26 yds to the STAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
89.5%
Xavier Brown run for 20 yds to the STAN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
89.7%
Xavier Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 13Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
96.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Sage Ennis for 13 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:494% → 4%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.7%
Micah Ford run for no gain to the STAN 25Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 5 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-12
95.7%
Ben Gulbranson sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the STAN 18Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
96.3%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STAN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16FG
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:4397% → 98%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
97.0%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the STAN 37Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-5
97.0%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Josey,Noah) 5 yards from STN37 to STN42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+2
97.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 2 yds to the STAN 40Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+25
97.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 25 yds to the STAN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
97.9%
J'Mari Taylor run for 9 yds to the STAN 6Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 1
OPP 6
-5
97.9%
PENALTY UVA Delay Of Game (Morris,Chandler) 5 yards from STN06 to STN11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
98.0%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Trell HarrisSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 6
OPP 11
-5
98.0%
PENALTY UVA False Start 5 yards from STN11 to STN16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+6
98.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for 6 yds to the STAN 10Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
98.3%
Will Bettridge 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:063% → 6%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.5%
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the STAN 26Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
97.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Myles Libman for 6 yds to the STAN 32Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+68
94.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 68 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5598% → 98%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.1%
Xavier Brown run for 3 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
98.1%
Xavier Brown run for no gain to the UVA 28Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
98.2%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Kameron CourtneySimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
98.0%
Elijah Slibeck punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:535% → 5%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
94.7%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 23Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-8
94.9%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Daniel Rickert for a loss of 8 yards to the STAN 15Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 19
OWN 15
+2
95.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 2 yds to the STAN 17Similar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
95.2%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cam Ross at the UVA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 3:4299% → 100%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
98.6%
Chandler Morris sacked by Zach Buckey for a loss of 4 yards to the UVA 35Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 14
OWN 35
-10
98.6%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Taylor,J'Mari rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UVA42 (Cooper,Ernest; Edwards,Scotty) PENALTY UVA Holding (Wigenton,Kevin) 10 yards from UVA35 to UVA25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 24
OWN 25
+15
98.8%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Morris,Chandler pass incomplete deep left to Harris,Trell thrown to STN34 PENALTY STN Pass Interference (Ojarikre,Che) 15 yards from UVA25 to UVA40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.9%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Eli WoodSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
98.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 16 yds to the STAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
99.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 9 yds to the STAN 35Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+6
99.3%
Xavier Brown run for 6 yds to the STAN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
99.3%
(13:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Morris,Chandler pass incomplete deep left to Wood,Eli thrown to STN00 PENALTY STN Pass Interference (Eckhardt,Charlie) 15 yards from STN29 to STN14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.3%
J'Mari Taylor run for 1 yd to the STAN 13Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
99.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 4 yds to the STAN 9Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
99.4%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Dillon Newton-ShortSimilar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
99.6%
Will Bettridge 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21FUMBLE
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:451% → 1%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to C.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 4 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.2%
Tuna Altahir run for 5 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.2%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 13 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-12
99.2%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Jason Hammond for a loss of 12 yards to the STAN 36 Ben Gulbranson fumbled, recovered by UVA Kam Robinson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:56100% → 100%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
99.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+10
99.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 10 yds to the STAN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
99.8%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Waylee,Harrison rush left for 1 yard gain to the STN23 (Johnson,Zach) PENALTY UVA Holding (Wigenton,Kevin) 10 yards from STN24 to STN34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+15
99.8%
J'Mari Taylor run for 15 yds to the STAN 19Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
99.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the STAN 15Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+10
99.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 10 yds to the STAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the STAN 4Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.8%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the STAN 4Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Daniel Kaelin pass complete to Eli Wood for 4 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23MISSED FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 3:130% → 0%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 2 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
100.0%
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
100.0%
Cole Tabb run for 14 yds to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to C.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
100.0%
Cole Tabb run for 2 yds to the STAN 47Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+18
100.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Myles Libman for 18 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
100.0%
Cole Tabb run for 2 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+5
100.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 5 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+4
100.0%
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the UVA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
100.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Liam ThorpeSimilar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
100.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
100.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Benji BlackburnSimilar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
100.0%
Emmet Kenney 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
100.0%
(01:00) Kneel down by Virginia at UVA22 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 22
-2
100.0%
(00:27) Kneel down by Virginia at UVA20 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:21
Chandler Morris pass complete to Sage Ennis for 13 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q2 0:55
Micah Ford run for 3 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q2 9:05
Chandler Morris run for 13 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com