2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · (00:22) Kneel down by Virginia at UVA41 for loss of 1 yard.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:35: Zevi Eckhaus run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK) — WSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:38: Will Bettridge 47 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +3.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:45: Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +31.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 2:55: Will Bettridge 34 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +18.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
- SAFETY · Q4 2:41: Kirby Vorhees run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY — UVA win probability +15.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 13:49UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snapGo for it85.7%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.9%average punt
- Q1 8:52UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snapGo for it82.8%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.9%average punt
- Q1 6:50WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snapGo for it17.8%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.1%average punt
- Q1 3:23UVA 4th & 1 at WSU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.8%71% to convertField goal82.4%−0.454% to makePunt82.2%−0.6average punt
- Q2 14:07WSU 4th & 8 at UVA 38, tiedClose callPunted · 19.8% before the snapGo for it19.9%35% to convertField goal19.7%−0.138% to makePuntTheir call19.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:36UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snapGo for it79.0%−0.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.4%average punt
- Q2 4:56UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snapGo for it65.8%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.1%average punt
- Q2 0:35WSU 4th & 3 at UVA 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snapGo for it41.0%−0.351% to convertField goalTheir call41.3%75% to makePunt36.4%−4.9average punt
- Q2 0:11UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 33, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snapGo for it55.4%−0.657% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.1%average punt
- Q3 12:54WSU 4th & 5 at WSU 30, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snapGo for it44.8%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.3%average punt
- Q3 8:38UVA 4th & 14 at WSU 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snapGo for it44.4%−1.918% to convertField goalTheir call46.3%58% to makePunt40.7%−5.6average punt
- Q3 5:13WSU 4th & 1 at UVA 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.4%71% to convertField goal50.4%−3.956% to makePunt48.1%−6.3average punt
- Q3 2:18WSU 4th & 8 at UVA 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snapGo for it58.2%−0.433% to convertField goalTheir call58.7%66% to makePunt50.2%−8.5average punt
- Q3 1:20UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snapGo for it32.5%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.2%average punt
- Q4 13:26WSU 4th & 6 at UVA 48, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snapGo for it68.8%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.0%average punt
- Q4 2:55UVA 4th & 5 at WSU 17, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snapGo for it34.2%−11.340% to convertField goalTheir call45.5%80% to makePunt22.5%−23.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:47WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.1%97% to makeGo for two16.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:48UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.9%97% to makeGo for two82.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:35WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.2%97% to makeGo for two30.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:45UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call42.7%−0.297% to makeGo for two43.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUVADrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1186% → 86%
Q1 13:49
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+6
86.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 52 yds , Tony Freeman returns for 6 yds to the WSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2TD8 plays · 78 yds · 3:5314% → 17%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
86.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Trey Leckner for 5 yds to the WSU 27Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+8
85.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Julian Dugger for 8 yds to the WSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
85.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 22 yds to the UVA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+5
85.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 5 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
83.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 32 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4884% → 83%
Q1 8:52
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
82.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Tony Freeman at the WSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 0 yds · 1:5817% → 18%
Q1 8:05
3RD & 5
OWN 20
-5
82.8%
(08:07) PENALTY WSU False Start (Vaipulu,AJ) 5 yards from WSU20 to WSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-5
82.7%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Freeman,Tony) 5 yards from WSU15 to WSU10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 15
OWN 10
+5
82.5%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Maxwell Woods for 5 yds to the WSU 15Similar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+10
82.4%
Ryan Harris punt for 54 yds , Cam Ross returns for 10 yds to the UVA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5TD6 plays · 59 yds · 1:5182% → 84%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+30
81.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 30 yds to the WSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
82.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass intercepted Donavon Platt return for 10 yds to the WSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0884% → 83%
Q1 3:23
4TH & 1
OPP 31
-1
83.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jayden Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the WSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 30 yds · 4:0718% → 20%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
79.8%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Vorhees,Kirby rush right for 1 yard loss to the UVA41 (Carter,Jahmeer; Danley,Landon) PENALTY WSU Illegal Shift (Leckner,Trey) 5 yards from UVA40 to UVA45. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2082% → 80%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+13
81.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 13 yds to the UVA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
81.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 5 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+3
80.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 3 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 2
OWN 28
-5
79.8%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Charles,Christian) 5 yards from UVA28 to UVA23. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10TD10 plays · 64 yds · 4:5521% → 34%
UVADrive 11PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3969% → 66%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
68.7%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Rogers,John) 5 yards from UVA25 to UVA20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
68.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 8 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+13
66.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 65 yds , Tony Freeman returns for 13 yds to the WSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12FG14 plays · 62 yds · 4:1529% → 31%
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+12
70.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 12 yds to the WSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+10
66.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 10 yds to the WSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
64.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 3 yds to the WSU 45Similar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
63.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Leon Neal Jr. for 18 yds to the UVA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
66.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Angel Johnson for 3 yds to the UVA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2061% → 60%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for 5 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
60.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 3 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
59.9%
Daniel Sparks punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tony Freeman at the WSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 8 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
61.0%
(00:09) Kneel down by Washington St. at WSU24 for loss of 8 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0143% → 45%
UVADrive 16FG11 plays · 46 yds · 4:1054% → 53%
Q3 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+37
53.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 37 yds to the WSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
55.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to J'Mari Taylor for 8 yds to the WSU 28Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-15
54.7%
(10:17) Shotgun Morris,Chandler pass complete short right to Waylee,Harrison caught at WSU30, for 0 yards to the WSU25 (Lamb,Bryson) PENALTY UVA Tripping (Josey,Noah) 15 yards from WSU25 to WSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 25
OPP 40
+10
51.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Sage Ennis for 10 yds to the WSU 30Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+1
50.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 1 yd to the WSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17FG14 plays · 50 yds · 6:1649% → 65%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
47.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 26 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+9
43.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 9 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
39.9%
Zevi Eckhaus sacked by Fisher Camac for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5229% → 26%
Q3 1:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
25.5%
Daniel Sparks punt for 51 yds , Tony Freeman returns for 5 yds to the WSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 2:4166% → 70%
UVADrive 20TD11 plays · 97 yds · 3:3422% → 51%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
18.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 19 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
18.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 15 yds to the WSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+23
19.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Sage Ennis for 23 yds to the WSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21INT9 plays · -10 yds · 2:3050% → 57%
Q4 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.1%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Vaipulu,AJ) 5 yards from WSU25 to WSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
45.0%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Vaipulu,AJ) 5 yards from WSU20 to WSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-7
44.1%
(08:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass complete short middle to Meredith,Joshua caught at WSU25, for 10 yards to the WSU25 (Clary,Antonio) PENALTY WSU Holding (Vaipulu,AJ) 7 yards from WSU15 to WSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-19
43.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass intercepted Ja'son Prevard return for 19 yds to the WSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22FG7 plays · 18 yds · 4:0759% → 60%
Q4 5:47
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
55.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the WSU 26 Harrison Waylee fumbled, recovered by UVA Noah JoseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23SF7 plays · -2 yds · 0:1147% → 30%
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 2
-1
53.6%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Lester,Jonny) 1 yard from WSU02 to WSU01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24END OF GAME8 plays · 11 yds · 2:3076% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:45
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
+31.5
FG · Q4 2:55
Will Bettridge 34 yd FG GOOD
+18
SAFETY · Q4 2:41
Kirby Vorhees run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY
+15.3