Try the model
DUKE

Duke 27 at Virginia 20

UVA
2025 · Week 15 · Dec 6, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · End of OT.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:14: No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 16 yards gain to the UVA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:14, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Pelino kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper) — DUKE win probability +11.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 3:54: #41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson), clock 03:54 — UVA win probability +8.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:22: No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #82 E.Wood caught at DUKE00, for 18 yards to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:22, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson) — UVA win probability +51.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #85 J.Hasley caught at DUKE00, for 1 yard to the UVA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00 PENALTY UVA Roughing The Passer (#1 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWN #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper) — DUKE win probability +10.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: End of OT. — UVA win probability +32.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:40DUKE 4th & 2 at UVA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:31UVA 4th & 12 at DUKE 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:16DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:16DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.2%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:55UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:43DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:53UVA 4th & 5 at DUKE 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:19DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:19UVA 4th & 7 at DUKE 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−12.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:53DUKE 4th & 7 at UVA 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−13.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:24UVA 4th & 5 at DUKE 24, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    34.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−11.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:46DUKE 4th & 6 at UVA 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:02DUKE 4th & 5 at UVA 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−10.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:54UVA 4th & 10 at DUKE 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−4.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:44DUKE 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:47UVA 4th & 4 at DUKE 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−5.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−8.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:40DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:14DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:22UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−7.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 4:2041% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #0 L.King caught at DUKE24, for 5 yards to the DUKE30 (#11 M.Marcellus)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
58.9%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 4 yards gain to the DUKE34 (#91 J.Hammond)Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
58.9%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DUKE37 (#11 M.Marcellus), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
58.9%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #20 N.Sheppard caught at DUKE40, for 9 yards to the DUKE46 (#4 C.Charles)Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
58.8%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UVA 49 (#90 J.Carter; #1 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
58.8%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #7 Q.Brown caught at UVA 50, for 2 yards loss to the DUKE49 (#9 J.Robinson; #11 M.Marcellus)Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+5
58.9%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #18 C.Barkate caught at UVA 45, for 5 yards to the UVA 46, out of bounds at UVA 46Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+6
58.5%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #2 S.Hagans caught at UVA 40, for 8 yards to the UVA 38 (#30 E.Minter), out of bounds PENALTY DUKE Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#85 J.Hasley) 6 yards from UVA 46 to DUKE48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+6
58.9%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #85 J.Hasley caught at DUKE50, for 6 yards to the UVA 46 (#32 L.Danley)Similar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 7
OPP 46
+5
58.9%
PENALTY UVA Offside (#23 J.Holmes) 5 yards from UVA 46 to UVA 41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+16
58.7%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #0 L.King caught at UVA 26, for 16 yards to the UVA 25 (#30 E.Minter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
58.2%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete deep left to #7 Q.Brown thrown to UVA 00Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
58.3%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UVA 22 (#1 J.Jackson)Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+9
58.4%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #20 N.Sheppard caught at UVA 19, for 9 yards to the UVA 13 (#4 C.Charles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
58.2%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 0 yards to the UVA 13 (#27 D.Neal)Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
58.2%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah rush right for 1 yard gain to the UVA 12 (#15 H.Osborne; #55 A.Britton)Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
56.9%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #85 J.Hasley caught at UVA 11, for 12 yards to the UVA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:22, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Pelino kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:5155% → 53%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
54.9%
Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete deep middle to #11 T.Harris caught at UVA 45, for 23 yards to the UVA 48 (#0 C.Rivers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
55.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #3 J.Taylor caught at UVA 43, for 6 yards to the DUKE46 fumbled by #3 J.Taylor at UVA 48 forced by #34 L.Mergott recovered by DUKE #2 J.Francois at DUKE46, End Of Play PENALTY DUKE Face Mask (#0 C.Rivers) 15 yards from UVA 48 to DUKE37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
56.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUKE35 (#3 C.Weaver; #8 D.Stone)Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+4
56.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush right for 4 yards gain to the DUKE31 (#12 T.Freeman), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+5
56.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #21 H.Waylee caught at DUKE33, for 5 yards to the DUKE26 (#8 D.Stone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
56.5%
PENALTY UVA False Start (#60 D.Metcalf) 5 yards from DUKE26 to DUKE31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+11
56.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 11 yards gain to the DUKE20 (#34 L.Mergott; #3 C.Weaver)Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-2
56.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 2 yards loss to the DUKE22 (#10 T.Reed)Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-6
56.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris sacked for loss of 6 yards to the DUKE28 (#7 V.Anthony Jr.)Similar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+45
52.9%
#41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson), clock 01:31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3INT
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4447% → 47%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
52.8%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #2 S.Hagans caught at DUKE24, for 4 yards loss to the DUKE24 (#30 E.Minter)Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 14
OWN 24
-7
53.1%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass intercepted by #18 C.Costner at DUKE30 #18 C.Costner return 7 yards to the DUKE23 (#18 C.Barkate)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3155% → 61%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
55.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #7 J.Edrine caught at DUKE13, for 9 yards to the DUKE14 (#0 C.Rivers), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+5
55.1%
PENALTY UVA False Start (#7 J.Edrine) 5 yards from DUKE14 to DUKE19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+4
61.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 4 yards gain to the DUKE15 (#99 A.Hall)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+4
60.6%
PENALTY DUKE Offside (#34 L.Mergott) 4 yards from DUKE15 to DUKE11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
61.3%
J'Mari Taylor 11 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 8:0242% → 56%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.0%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DUKE26 (#17 M.Melton)Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
58.1%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #20 N.Sheppard caught at DUKE29, for 7 yards to the DUKE33 (#1 J.Jackson)Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
57.7%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 0 yards to the DUKE33 (#1 J.Jackson)Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+6
58.4%
#15 K.O'Connor rush middle for 6 yards gain to the DUKE39 (#11 M.Marcellus), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
57.1%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DUKE40 (#17 M.Melton)Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+3
57.3%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #18 C.Barkate caught at DUKE43, for 3 yards to the DUKE43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+5
57.2%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #20 N.Sheppard caught at DUKE38, for 5 yards to the DUKE48 (#18 C.Costner), out of bounds. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #20 N.Sheppard caught at DUKE38, for 6 yards to the DUKE49 (#18 C.Costner), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+3
57.5%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UVA 49 (#27 D.Neal; #11 M.Marcellus), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
56.3%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UVA 44 (#10 J.Prevard)Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-9
56.1%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah sacked for loss of 9 yards to the DUKE47 (#52 D.Rickert), fumble by #10 D.Mensah recovered by DUKE #75 B.Fina at DUKE47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+35
58.1%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete deep left to #2 S.Hagans caught at UVA 20, for 35 yards to the UVA 18, out of bounds at UVA 18, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
55.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UVA 16 (#55 A.Britton; #91 J.Hammond)Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
44.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 16 yards gain to the UVA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:14, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Pelino kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 3:1947% → 45%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
46.9%
Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush left for 8 yards gain to the UVA 33 (#42 K.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
48.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UVA 35 (#2 J.Francois), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
47.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #21 H.Waylee thrown to UVA 33 QB hurried by #97 W.WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
47.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #3 J.Taylor caught at UVA 35, for 9 yards to the UVA 44, out of bounds at UVA 44Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
48.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UVA 47 (#99 A.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
49.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #5 K.Courtney caught at DUKE49, for 5 yards to the DUKE48, out of bounds at DUKE48Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+10
49.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush right for 3 yards gain to the DUKE45 (#99 A.Hall) PENALTY UVA Holding (#60 D.Metcalf) 10 yards from DUKE48 to UVA 42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+6
47.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #3 J.Taylor caught at UVA 46, for 6 yards to the UVA 48 (#26 M.Jones; #12 T.Freeman)Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
47.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #3 J.Taylor thrown to UVA 48 broken up by #42 K.JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
45.1%
#38 D.Sparks punt 52 yards to the DUKE00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:1256% → 57%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
44.2%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUKE22 (#28 D.Platt). #11 M.Marcellus injured on the playSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
43.4%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DUKE23 (#1 J.Jackson)Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+1
43.2%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #20 N.Sheppard caught at DUKE23, for 1 yard to the DUKE24 QB hurried by #6 C.Moore (#26 C.Hardy; #23 J.Holmes)Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
43.1%
#41 K.Reynoldson punt 46 yards to the UVA 30 fair catch by #6 C.Ross at UVA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:5745% → 46%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
45.3%
Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #3 J.Taylor thrown to UVA 30Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+16
44.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #7 J.Edrine caught at UVA 44, for 16 yards to the UVA 46 (#21 L.Callahan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
47.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short left to #3 J.Taylor thrown to UVA 50Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
45.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #11 T.Harris caught at UVA 50, for 5 yards to the DUKE49 (#21 L.Callahan)Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
47.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #0 S.Ennis thrown to DUKE49 broken up by #97 W.WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
45.8%
#38 D.Sparks punt 49 yards to the DUKE00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:3458% → 56%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
41.6%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DUKE25 (#32 L.Danley)Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
40.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DUKE30 (#6 C.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
40.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah rush left for 3 yards gain to the DUKE33 (#32 L.Danley)Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
39.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah rush right for 6 yards gain to the DUKE39 (#32 L.Danley), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
42.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short right to #85 J.Hasley thrown to DUKE43Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
44.1%
#41 K.Reynoldson punt 47 yards to the UVA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10FG
18 plays · 68 yds · 7:4144% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
43.7%
Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #6 C.Ross caught at UVA 23, for 12 yards loss to the UVA 13 (#97 W.Williams)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+29
43.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete deep right to #6 C.Ross caught at UVA 39, for 29 yards to the UVA 42 (#8 D.Stone), 1ST DOWN. #8 D.Stone injured on the playSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
45.9%
Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UVA 49 (#21 L.Callahan; #26 M.Jones)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+2
46.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUKE49 (#7 V.Anthony Jr.)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
46.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DUKE44 (#26 M.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
47.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DUKE43 (#10 T.Reed; #99 A.Hall)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+3
47.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #21 H.Waylee caught at DUKE43, for 3 yards to the DUKE40 (#34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+6
46.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 6 yards gain to the DUKE34 (#42 K.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
48.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete deep right to #6 C.Ross thrown to DUKE08Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+18
48.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 18 yards gain to the DUKE16 (#3 C.Weaver), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
48.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DUKE13 (#0 C.Rivers; #34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
48.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush left for 3 yards gain to the DUKE10 (#97 W.Williams; #34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+5
47.1%
Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DUKE05 (#34 L.Mergott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
48.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DUKE02 (#4 J.Green; #15 K.O'Connor)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
48.6%
Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush middle for 5 yards loss to the DUKE07 (#99 A.Hall)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
47.1%
Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #6 C.Ross thrown to DUKE00 broken up by #8 D.Stone QB hurried by #26 M.JonesSimilar
Q3 7:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
49.2%
#41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson), clock 07:19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:2654% → 66%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.7%
PENALTY DUKE False Start (#53 B.Parker II) 5 yards from DUKE25 to DUKE20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
45.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 12 yards gain to the DUKE32 (#28 D.Platt)Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+38
44.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete deep right to #18 C.Barkate caught at UVA 40, for 38 yards to the UVA 30 (#10 J.Prevard), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UVA Face Mask (#10 J.Prevard) 15 yards from UVA 30 to UVA 15, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
40.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #7 Q.Brown caught at UVA 17, for 5 yards to the UVA 10 (#27 D.Neal)Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
40.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 2 yards gain to the UVA 08 (#28 D.Platt; #27 D.Neal)Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+1
42.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA 07 (#27 D.Neal)Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+5
40.8%
PENALTY DUKE False Start (#53 B.Parker II) 5 yards from UVA 07 to UVA 12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
34.1%
#29 T.Pelino field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper), clock 03:53Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:2939% → 37%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
39.0%
Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 16 yards gain to the UVA 41 (#3 C.Weaver; #0 C.Rivers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
41.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UVA 46 (#4 J.Green)Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
42.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush left for 3 yards gain to the UVA 49 (#35 A.Pellicciotta; #99 A.Hall)Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
42.5%
Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DUKE46 (#97 W.Williams; #0 C.Rivers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
43.7%
Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #7 J.Edrine caught at DUKE31, for 17 yards to the DUKE29 QB hurried by #97 W.Williams (#21 L.Callahan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
46.1%
Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DUKE28 (#97 W.Williams)Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
46.1%
Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #21 H.Waylee thrown to DUKE35 QB hurried by #97 W.Williams and #42 K.JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+4
39.7%
Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush right for 4 yards gain to the DUKE24 (#34 L.Mergott). #12 T.Freeman injured on the playSimilar
Q4 14:24
4TH & 5
OPP 24
0
37.1%
Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete deep middle to #11 T.Harris thrown to DUKE00 broken up by #8 D.Stone, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 5:3871% → 78%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
29.0%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 4 yards gain to the DUKE28 (#0 A.Clary)Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+8
28.3%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 8 yards gain to the DUKE36 (#18 C.Costner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
27.9%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 7 yards gain to the DUKE43 (#27 D.Neal; #1 J.Jackson)Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
26.9%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUKE45 (#15 H.Osborne; #14 F.Camac)Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
27.1%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DUKE48 (#18 C.Costner; #17 M.Melton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
26.6%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UVA 47 (#55 A.Britton)Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-1
26.0%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah rush left for 1 yard loss to the UVA 48 fumbled by #10 D.Mensah at UVA 48 recovered by DUKE #20 N.Sheppard at UVA 48, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
26.4%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short right to #18 C.Barkate thrown to UVA 40 broken up by #18 C.Costner QB hurried by #52 D.RickertSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
22.1%
#41 K.Reynoldson punt 47 yards to the UVA 01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:2528% → 25%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
27.9%
Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 0 yards to the UVA 01 (#34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
27.9%
Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA 02 (#34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
24.7%
Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass intercepted by #3 C.Weaver at UVA 33, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15FG
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:1983% → 90%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+30
17.2%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete deep left to #18 C.Barkate caught at UVA 05, for 30 yards to the UVA 03 (#18 C.Costner), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
16.8%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UVA 04 (#18 C.Costner; #23 J.Holmes)Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
17.0%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UVA 05 (#23 J.Holmes)Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.7%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short left to #18 C.Barkate thrown to UVA 00 PENALTY DUKE Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 5:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
10.1%
#29 T.Pelino field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper), clock 05:02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 1:0811% → 23%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
11.2%
Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #11 T.Harris caught at UVA 35, for 10 yards to the UVA 35 (#0 C.Rivers), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #11 T.Harris thrown to UVA 36 broken up by #0 C.Rivers. #11 T.Harris injured on the play)Similar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
11.9%
Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #0 S.Ennis thrown to UVA 40Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+25
11.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #6 C.Ross caught at UVA 50, for 25 yards to the DUKE40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
14.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #7 J.Edrine thrown to DUKE32 QB hurried by #4 J.GreenSimilar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
14.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete deep left to #6 C.Ross thrown to DUKE08 PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference (#3 C.Weaver) 15 yards from DUKE40 to DUKE25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
17.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete deep left to #82 E.Wood thrown to DUKE02 broken up by #21 L.CallahanSimilar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
16.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short middle to #0 S.Ennis thrown to DUKE09 broken up by #2 J.FrancoisSimilar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
14.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right thrown to DUKE10 QB hurried by #15 K.O'ConnorSimilar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
23.3%
#41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson), clock 03:54Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:1085% → 94%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.8%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DUKE30 (#90 J.Carter; #11 M.Marcellus)Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
14.5%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DUKE31 (#1 J.Jackson)Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
13.3%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #18 C.Barkate caught at DUKE46, for 15 yards to the DUKE46 QB hurried by #23 J.Holmes (#9 J.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
10.5%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUKE48 (#91 J.Hammond; #15 H.Osborne)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
7.3%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 0 yards to the DUKE48 (#14 F.Camac) PENALTY DUKE Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+2
7.0%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUKE50 (#17 M.Melton), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 6
50
0
5.9%
#41 K.Reynoldson punt 46 yards to the UVA 04 fair catch by #6 C.Ross at UVA 04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
13 plays · 96 yds · 1:2214% → 67%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
14.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #6 C.Ross caught at UVA 08, for 8 yards to the UVA 12 (#0 C.Rivers; #34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+6
14.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #82 E.Wood caught at UVA 18, for 6 yards to the UVA 18 (#21 L.Callahan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
14.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #7 J.Edrine caught at UVA 24, for 9 yards to the UVA 27 (#0 C.Rivers; #15 K.O'Connor) PENALTY DUKE Holding (#26 M.Jones) 10 yards from UVA 18 to UVA 28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
15.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short middle to #6 C.Ross thrown to UVA 40 broken up by #3 C.Weaver, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference (#3 C.Weaver) 12 yards from UVA 28 to UVA 40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
17.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #3 J.Taylor caught at UVA 35, for 8 yards to the UVA 48 (#97 W.Williams; #35 A.Pellicciotta)Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
19.7%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short left to #21 H.Waylee thrown to DUKE35 broken up by #35 A.PellicciottaSimilar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+19
15.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 19 yards gain to the DUKE33 (#8 D.Stone), 1ST DOWN. #3 C.Weaver injured on the playSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
20.6%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short middle to #6 C.Ross thrown to DUKE24 QB hurried by #34 L.MergottSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
19.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #82 E.Wood caught at DUKE29, for 6 yards to the DUKE27 QB hurried by #34 L.Mergott (#28 K.Lanier), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
20.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short left to #7 J.Edrine thrown to DUKE18Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+9
15.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #6 C.Ross caught at DUKE18, for 9 yards to the DUKE18 (#0 C.Rivers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
67.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #82 E.Wood caught at DUKE00, for 18 yards to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:22, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
52.0%
Kneel down by #10 D.Mensah at DUKE13 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 67%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
41.1%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UVA 14 (#27 D.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
41.1%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UVA 08 (#91 J.Hammond; #90 J.Carter)Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+7
41.1%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UVA 01 (#17 M.Melton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.2%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 0 yards to the UVA 01 (#11 M.Marcellus; #14 F.Camac)Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.1%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short right to #18 C.Barkate thrown to UVA 00 QB hurried by #1 J.JacksonSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
43.2%
Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 0 yards to the UVA 01 (#23 J.Holmes; #55 A.Britton)Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.1%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #85 J.Hasley caught at DUKE00, for 1 yard to the UVA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00 PENALTY UVA Roughing The Passer (#1 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWN #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-65.6
TD · Q4 0:22
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #82 E.Wood caught at DUKE00, for 18 yards to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:22, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson)
+51.9
TD · OT 0:00
End of OT.
+32.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com