Virginia

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2792nd
  Defense+0.306th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense50.5%97th
  Defense46.9%16th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2750th
  Defense+1.3035th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2180th
  Defense+0.288th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3377th
  Defense+0.416th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense54.4%88th
  Defense51.8%16th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense41.5%98th
  Defense34.9%17th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.5293rd
  Defense3.575th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense12.7%88th
  Defense12.2%8th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense18.0%20th
  Defense14.3%19th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Virginia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   W&M
2. W
   ILL
3. L
   UNC
4. L
   WAKE
5. W
   MIA
6. W
   LOU
7. W
   DUKE
8. W
   GT
9. L
   BYU
10. L
    ND
11. L
    PITT
12. L
    VT

Bars above the line: better than expected for Virginia.

Players, 2021

1. Brennan ArmstrongQB503 plays · +0.304 pts/play · 6th of 219 QBs
   2.87WAR1.90 to 3.82
2. Dontayvion WicksWR72 plays · +0.249 pts/play · 15th of 474 WRs
   0.34WAR0.24 to 0.43
3. Keytaon ThompsonWR115 plays · +0.117 pts/play · 31st of 474 WRs
   0.25WAR0.15 to 0.35
4. Wayne TaulapapaRB59 plays · +0.207 pts/play · 199th of 387 RBs
   0.23WAR0.17 to 0.28
5. Billy Kemp IVWR86 plays · +0.115 pts/play · 80th of 474 WRs
   0.19WAR0.09 to 0.27
6. Mike HollinsRB55 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 246th of 387 RBs
   0.16WAR0.12 to 0.19
7. Ra'Shaun HenryWR45 plays · +0.175 pts/play · 142nd of 474 WRs
   0.15WAR0.10 to 0.19
8. Jacob FinnP36 plays · +0.177 pts/play · 44th of 101 punters
   0.12WAR0.05 to 0.18

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Virginia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  62062053rd of 130Roster talent: 620, 53rd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  19319348th of 130Recruiting: 193, 48th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  89%89%30th of 128Returning production: 89%, 30th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +7.2+7.255th of 130SP+ rating: +7.2, 55th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Virginia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.05 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at MIAQ2 11:08 4th & 1 at UVA 43, up 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
2. vs VTQ3 6:59 4th & 7 at VT 37, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
3. vs WAKEQ4 10:14 4th & 18 at WAKE 33, down 20Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.1 pts
4. vs DUKEQ3 6:47 4th & 4 at DUKE 46, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
5. vs W&MQ3 12:42 4th & 1 at UVA 16, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
6. at UNCQ2 13:28 4th & 2 at midfield, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. vs WAKEQ2 12:07 4th & 2 at WAKE 4, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. vs NDQ2 8:46 4th & 12 at ND 30, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

92nd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Virginia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   W&M
2. W

   ILL
3. L

   UNC
4. L

   WAKE
5. W

   MIA
6. W

   LOU
7. W

   DUKE
8. W

   GT
9. L

   BYU
10. L

    ND
11. L

    PITT
12. L

    VT

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Virginia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.57
• Possession & field position−0.05
• Clock−0.05
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.64

Game by game

• W&MW 43-0 vs W&M98% → 82%Before kickoff +48 · On the field −16: Scoreboard +8, Timeouts −1
• ILLW 42-14 vs ILL80% → 100%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +22
• UNCL 39-59 at UNC34% → 0%Before kickoff −16 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −34, Possession & field position +1
• WAKEL 17-37 vs WAKE64% → 0%Before kickoff +14 · On the field −63: Scoreboard −61, Clock −2
• MIAW 30-28 at MIA40% → 83%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +40, Possession & field position +3
• LOUW 34-33 at LOU46% → 63%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +28, Possession & field position −4
• DUKEW 48-0 vs DUKE80% → 51%Before kickoff +30 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −4, Possession & field position −4
• GTW 48-40 vs GT71% → 67%Before kickoff +21 · On the field −4: Scoreboard +6, Possession & field position −4
• BYUL 49-66 at BYU51% → 1%Before kickoff +1 · On the field −50: Scoreboard −43, Possession & field position −1
• NDL 3-28 vs ND32% → 0%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −38, Clock −1
• PITTL 38-48 at PITT18% → 3%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −23, Timeouts −1
• VTL 24-29 vs VT74% → 6%Before kickoff +24 · On the field −68: Scoreboard −57, Clock −4

Points of win probability, from Virginia's side.

Closest call

UVA 31-30 WAKE (2024) - Virginia dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.