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UVA

Virginia 49 at BYU 66

BYU
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:59: Brennan Armstrong run for 30 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK) — UVA win probability +15.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:27: Jaren Hall pass complete to Samson Nacua for 40 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +15.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:22: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 12 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK) — UVA win probability +14.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:10: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 2 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK) — UVA win probability +22.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:49: Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +19.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:01UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:44UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:43UVA 4th & 1 at BYU 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%−1.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:38BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 33, up 14
    Close callPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:27BYU 4th & 6 at UVA 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:45BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:15UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:14BYU 4th & 1 at UVA 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−2.7
    81% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−11.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:56BYU 4th & 13 at UVA 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−2.7
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−9.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:10UVA 4th & 1 at BYU 2, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    32.9%−4.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−16.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:56UVA 4th & 4 at BYU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:43BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:16BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:04BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:22UVA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:13BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 12:29UVA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 9:59UVA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 5:53UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 1:59UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q2 1:27BYU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q2 0:22UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 13:08BYU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  13. Q3 2:10UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 14:49BYU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 14:22BYU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  16. Q4 7:12BYU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:4951% → 51%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
49.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
49.1%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
49.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+8
49.2%
Jacob Finn punt for 59 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 8 yds to the BYU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 1:0249% → 51%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+52
49.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Samson Nacua for 52 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
49.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 14 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
49.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Samson Nacua for 15 yds to the Virg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.6%
Jaren Hall run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-24
50.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Payton Wilgar return for 24 yds to the Virg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:1351% → 53%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
50.8%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
51.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+8
51.1%
Jaren Hall run for 8 yds to the Virg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2348% → 46%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
52.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
53.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+10
54.0%
Jacob Finn punt for 55 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 10 yds to the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:2255% → 60%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
54.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 11 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
55.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 8 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+12
56.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 12 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
56.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 17 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
60.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 26 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2340% → 42%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+17
60.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 17 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
61.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
61.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
60.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
61.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
62.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+21
62.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 21 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
62.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
63.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 5 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
65.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 2 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
58.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5761% → 75%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
61.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 14 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
62.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
50
+6
62.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
63.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
63.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+4
64.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
64.6%
Jaren Hall run for 3 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
64.9%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+15
65.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 15 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
65.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 8 yds to the Virg 4Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
74.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3426% → 37%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
73.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 19 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
73.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 7 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+9
74.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 9 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
63.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 40 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 1:4368% → 69%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
68.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-10
67.1%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joe Tukuafu) to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+10
67.0%
Jaren Hall run for 10 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
69.0%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 47 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for no gain to the Virg 33 BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Jackson) to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:2933% → 38%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
67.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+70
61.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 70 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 2:2662% → 65%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
61.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Anthony Johnson) to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
63.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 7 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+16
63.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 16 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
63.7%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
63.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+15
63.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Roughing Passer (D'Sean Perry) to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
65.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
65.9%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
65.2%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+32
64.9%
Jake Oldroyd 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3434% → 44%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.4%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Pepe Tanuvasa) to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+9
65.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 9 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
66.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 12 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
55.6%
Devin Darrington run for 49 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:0058% → 57%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 1 yd to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
57.7%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
57.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 11 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
59.2%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
59.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 3 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
58.8%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
57.4%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 1:1841% → 60%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
59.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 21 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
57.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 4
50
+20
56.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 20 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
40.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 30 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2444% → 61%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
44.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 13 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
45.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 22 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
61.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Samson Nacua for 40 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:5940% → 60%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
60.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 10 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
57.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 27 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
54.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 20 yds to the BYU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
39.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 12 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
44.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4346% → 63%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
46.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 24Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+20
45.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 20 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
48.6%
Samson Nacua run for 7 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+49
62.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 49 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2942% → 39%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
57.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
59.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
60.6%
Jacob Finn punt for 47 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 1 yd to the BYU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21MISSED FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:0459% → 61%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
60.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
60.8%
Puka Nacua run for 28 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
64.3%
Neil Pau'u run for 8 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+2
64.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
65.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
65.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
64.0%
Jaren Hall run for no gain to the Virg 16Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
62.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the Virg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
65.9%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Tyler AllgeierSimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
65.9%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-3
64.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 16Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+33
60.7%
Jake Oldroyd 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:2140% → 64%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
60.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jacob Rodriguez for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+17
59.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 17 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
57.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 13 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
56.0%
Devin Darrington run for 11 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
54.7%
Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+15
55.3%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Shamon Willis) to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
55.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
56.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the BYU 3Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+1
57.9%
Jelani Woods run for 1 yd to the BYU 2Similar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
35.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 2 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:1541% → 67%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
41.3%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+31
40.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 31 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
47.3%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
47.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+19
45.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 19 yds to the Virg 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
47.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 0
OPP 5
-5
49.3%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 10Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
47.2%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
67.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Virg 31 Wayne Taulapapa fumbled, forced by Uriah Leiataua, recovered by BYU Uriah LeiatauaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25TD
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:1172% → 84%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
72.3%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
84.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 31 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26INT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:3117% → 19%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 8 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
81.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
82.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 5 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
81.9%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Alden Tofa and John Nelson for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+12
84.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 12 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+4
82.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
81.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Drew Jensen return for no gain to the BYU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 27TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:2386% → 97%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
85.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+11
87.3%
Neil Pau'u run for 11 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+32
89.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 32 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
89.6%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
90.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the Virg 11Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+7
90.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Masen Wake for 7 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:044% → 3%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Jay Woolfolk run for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.8%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 15 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
96.6%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Jelani Woods for 20 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
96.7%
Jay Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
96.9%
Jay Woolfolk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
97.2%
Jay Woolfolk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
97.5%
Jay Woolfolk pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 29END OF GAME
7 plays · 50 yds · 4:3398% → 99%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
97.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 14 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
98.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
98.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
98.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+4
98.6%
Jackson McChesney run for 4 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+19
98.7%
Jaren Hall run for 19 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:10
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 2 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)
-22.2
TD · Q4 14:49
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+19.8
TD · Q2 1:27
Jaren Hall pass complete to Samson Nacua for 40 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+15.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com