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ND

Notre Dame 28 at Virginia 3

UVA
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:33 · Jacob Finn punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense+0.1Score differential−0.2Pregame prior−15.7Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:11: Braden Lenzy 4 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +5.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:33: Kyren Williams 22 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +10.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:16: Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NDame 20 — ND win probability +5.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:31: Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 27 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Mayer) to the NDame 17 — ND win probability +4.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:53: Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the Virg 49 — UVA win probability +4.8 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:34ND 4th & 1 at UVA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:33UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:33ND 4th & 1 at UVA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−0.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:39UVA 4th & 14 at UVA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:46UVA 4th & 12 at ND 30, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:32UVA 4th & 16 at ND 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:16UVA 4th & 20 at midfield, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:35ND 4th & 3 at ND 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:01UVA 4th & 5 at ND 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−4.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:16UVA 4th & 10 at ND 16, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:00UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 8, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:34ND 4th & 1 at UVA 33, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:07UVA 4th & 12 at ND 44, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:53ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:11ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:33ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:41ND Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 54 yds · 5:2168% → 66%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
32.7%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
32.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 13 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
33.0%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+13
33.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 13 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
33.3%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Lorenzo Styles Jr.Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
33.3%
Kyren Williams run for 8 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+6
33.5%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
33.6%
Jack Coan run for 2 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
33.7%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+4
34.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 4 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 1
OPP 21
0
34.5%
Jack Coan run for no gain to the Virg 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0035% → 35%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
34.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the Virg 22Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
35.0%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 4 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+3
35.0%
Jay Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
35.1%
Jacob Finn punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:3965% → 68%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
34.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 14 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
34.6%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
34.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Lorenzo Styles Jr.Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+5
35.1%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+14
35.9%
Kyren Williams run for 14 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
32.1%
Michael Mayer 6 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 2:1333% → 33%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.3%
Woolfolk, Jay pass incomplete to Wicks, Dontayvion, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Mills, Rylie) 5 yards to the VIRGINIA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-5
33.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Chris Glaser) to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.4%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
33.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Grant Misch) to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
33.4%
Devin Darrington run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
33.1%
Jay Woolfolk sacked by Bo Bauer for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 21Similar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
32.9%
Jacob Finn punt for 39 yds , Kyren Williams returns for no gain to the NDame 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:2768% → 73%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
32.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 6 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
32.3%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+26
32.2%
Logan Diggs run for 26 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
31.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 16 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
31.6%
Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
31.6%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the Virg 4Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
26.6%
Braden Lenzy 4 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 5:2029% → 26%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
28.5%
Jay Woolfolk sacked by Howard Cross III for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+2
27.8%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+15
27.5%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 15 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
28.6%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 7
50
+12
27.7%
Jay Woolfolk run for 12 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
27.7%
Mike Hollins run for 10 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
27.9%
Jay Woolfolk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
27.8%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 5 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-7
27.0%
Jay Woolfolk run for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+10
26.0%
Jay Woolfolk run for 10 yds to the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:1276% → 89%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
24.5%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 19Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+5
25.2%
Jack Coan run for 5 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
24.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 10 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
23.9%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
23.9%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+9
23.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 9 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+27
22.5%
Lorenzo Styles Jr. run for 37 yds to the VIRGINIA 15 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Deion Colzie) to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
22.2%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
11.5%
Kyren Williams 22 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8INT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:1116% → 15%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
16.0%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Jelani Woods for 9 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+7
16.0%
Jay Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
15.6%
Jay Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-5
15.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+8
14.7%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 8 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
15.0%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
15.4%
Jay Woolfolk pass intercepted Ramon Henderson return for no gain to the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:1690% → 91%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
9.9%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+8
9.5%
Chris Tyree run for 8 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
8.6%
Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the NDame 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:2714% → 13%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.7%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.6%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Jelani Woods for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 14:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
13.4%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 15 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
14.4%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 17 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
14.6%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 19 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
14.5%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
14.3%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-6
13.8%
Jay Woolfolk sacked by Bo Bauer and Rylie Mills for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 16
OPP 26
+44
12.7%
Brendan Farrell 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11INT
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:3892% → 92%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
7.9%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 27 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Mayer) to the NDame 17Similar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 19
OWN 17
0
7.7%
Jack Coan pass intercepted Anthony Johnson return for no gain to the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:3713% → 11%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
12.6%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+11
12.9%
Devin Darrington run for 11 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
12.5%
Dontayvion Wicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
12.3%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-10
11.9%
Woolfolk, Jay rush for 5 yards to the NOTREDAME35, PENALTY VIRGINIA holding (Bissinger, Joe) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 20
50
0
11.0%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 20
50
0
10.9%
Jacob Finn punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4193% → 94%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
6.8%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+3
6.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 3 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
6.4%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Lorenzo Styles Jr.Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
6.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 34 yds, downed at the Virg 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:349% → 6%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
9.4%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
9.2%
Jay Woolfolk run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 2
50
+4
9.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the NDame 46 Keytaon Thompson fumbled, forced by Jack Kiser, recovered by Virg Jelani Woods for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
7.1%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+11
7.0%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 11 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
7.2%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Jacob RodriguezSimilar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
6.9%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+5
6.6%
Jay Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 5
OPP 28
-11
6.3%
Jay Woolfolk sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 11 yards to the NDame 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:2096% → 98%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+31
3.8%
Braden Lenzy run for 31 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
3.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 11 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
3.3%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+2
3.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 2 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
1.7%
Kevin Austin Jr. 15 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:251% → 1%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
1.2%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
1.1%
Jay Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
1.1%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
1.1%
Keytaon Thompson run for 6 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+28
1.0%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 28 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
1.2%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 11 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
1.0%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
1.0%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the NDame 13Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 7
OPP 13
-3
0.7%
Jay Woolfolk sacked by Justin Ademilola for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 16Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
0.8%
Brendan Farrell 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17FUMBLE
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:5299% → 100%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
0.9%
Tyler Buchner run for 7 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+6
0.8%
Tyler Buchner run for 6 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
0.7%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+15
0.7%
Buchner, Tyler pass incomplete to Lenzy, Braden, PENALTY VIRGINIA pass interference (Sanker, Jonas) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
0.6%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 22 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
0.5%
Logan Diggs run for 19 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
0.5%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 12 yds to the Virg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
0.4%
Tyler Buchner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 8 Tyler Buchner fumbled, recovered by Virg Noah TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
0.4%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 6 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 4
OWN 14
-6
0.4%
Jay Woolfolk sacked by Clarence Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 8Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
0.3%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
0.3%
Jacob Finn punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
0.3%
Chris Tyree run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 2
50
+8
0.3%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 8 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.3%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
0.3%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+2
0.2%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 1
OPP 33
-3
0.2%
Logan Diggs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20INT
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
0.2%
Mike Hollins run for 11 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
0.2%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 7 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
0.2%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.2%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
0.2%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-2
0.1%
Jay Woolfolk sacked by Rylie Mills and Justin Ademilola for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 12
OPP 44
+19
0.1%
Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 19 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-14
0.2%
Jay Woolfolk pass intercepted DJ Brown return for 14 yds to the NDame 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:33
Kyren Williams 22 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-10.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:16
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NDame 20
-5.5
TD · Q2 14:11
Braden Lenzy 4 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com