Virginia

Profile vs. FBS, 2019

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1349th
  Defense+0.1243rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.5%68th
  Defense41.0%68th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1322nd
  Defense+1.339th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1162nd
  Defense+0.1616th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1639th
  Defense+0.0971st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense51.7%83rd
  Defense45.6%74th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.3%37th
  Defense32.7%59th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9554th
  Defense2.9443rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.6%62nd
  Defense21.6%69th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense21.1%32nd
  Defense22.3%80th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2019

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Virginia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   PITT
2. W
   W&M
3. W
   FSU
4. W
   ODU
5. L
   ND
6. L
   MIA
7. W
   DUKE
8. L
   LOU
9. W
   UNC
10. W
    GT
11. W
    LIB
12. W
    VT
13. L
    CLEM
14. L
    FLA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Virginia.

Players, 2019

1. Bryce PerkinsQB591 plays · +0.212 pts/play · 7th of 228 QBs
   2.34WAR1.51 to 3.26
2. Wayne TaulapapaRB100 plays · +0.153 pts/play · 151st of 349 RBs
   0.29WAR0.21 to 0.36
3. Hasise DuboisWR77 plays · +0.189 pts/play · 28th of 439 WRs
   0.27WAR0.19 to 0.37
4. Terrell JanaWR76 plays · +0.171 pts/play · 38th of 439 WRs
   0.24WAR0.17 to 0.32
5. Joe ReedWR109 plays · +0.091 pts/play · 82nd of 439 WRs
   0.19WAR0.05 to 0.31
6. Brian DelaneyPK19 plays · +0.504 pts/play · 17th of 114 kickers
   0.18WAR0.12 to 0.23
7. Nash GriffinP53 plays · +0.081 pts/play · 32nd of 100 punters
   0.08WAR0.01 to 0.15
8. Tanner CowleyTE31 plays · +0.104 pts/play · 29th of 207 TEs
   0.06WAR0.01 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Virginia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2019

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  58058059th of 130Roster talent: 580, 59th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17917957th of 130Recruiting: 179, 57th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  67%67%52nd of 130Returning production: 67%, 52nd of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +6.3+6.343rd of 130SP+ rating: +6.3, 43rd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Virginia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.13 of the 0.18 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at LOUQ4 7:43 4th & 1 at UVA 29, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.7 pts
2. vs VTQ3 9:04 4th & 1 at UVA 36, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
3. vs VTQ2 4:55 4th & 1 at UVA 19, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
4. at PITTQ3 0:58 4th & 2 at UVA 40, up 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
5. vs ODUQ4 12:27 4th & 2 at ODU 19, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
6. at UNCQ4 2:07 4th & 3 at UVA 41, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
7. at MIAQ4 14:28 4th & 4 at MIA 4, down 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
8. at LOUQ3 15:00 4th & 7 at LOU 35, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2019

38th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Virginia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   PITT
2. W

   W&M
3. W

   FSU
4. W

   ODU
5. L

   ND
6. L

   MIA
7. W

   DUKE
8. L

   LOU
9. W

   UNC
10. W

    GT
11. W

    LIB
12. W

    VT
13. L

    CLEM
14. L

    FLA

What moved it, 2019

Every game starts at Virginia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.22
• Possession & field position−0.08
• Clock+0.03
• Timeouts+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.33

Game by game

• PITTW 30-14 at PITT59% → 99%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +46, Clock +1
• W&MW 52-17 vs W&M98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• FSUW 31-24 vs FSU69% → 84%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +23, Possession & field position −4
• ODUW 28-17 vs ODU96% → 98%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +9
• NDL 20-35 at ND22% → 1%Before kickoff −28 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −26, Timeouts −1
• MIAL 9-17 at MIA43% → 5%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −32, Possession & field position −2
• DUKEW 48-14 vs DUKE64% → 100%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +36
• LOUL 21-28 at LOU60% → 9%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −50: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts −1
• UNCW 38-31 at UNC47% → 95%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +47: Scoreboard +50, Clock +3
• GTW 33-28 vs GT88% → 92%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +16, Timeouts +1
• LIBW 55-27 vs LIB86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +17, Possession & field position −1
• VTW 39-30 vs VT46% → 96%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +40, Possession & field position −2
• CLEML 17-62 at CLEM3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −5
• FLAL 28-36 vs FLA13% → 3%Before kickoff −37 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −23, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Virginia's side.

Closest call

UVA 31-30 WAKE (2024) - Virginia dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.