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UVA

Virginia 30 at Pittsburgh 14

PITT
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:32 · Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:29: A.J. Davis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +6.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 0:38: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +14.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:54: Brian Delaney 45 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +6.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:23: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +12.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:32: Wayne Taulapapa run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +6.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:17UVA 4th & 17 at PITT 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:17PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:11PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:48UVA 4th & 17 at UVA 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:19UVA 4th & 10 at PITT 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:19PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:01UVA 4th & 14 at PITT 49, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:54UVA 4th & 8 at PITT 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−6.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:03PITT 4th & 13 at UVA 32, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.9
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:58UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 40, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 24, down 9
    Close callPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:48UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 41, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:23UVA 4th & 5 at PITT 23, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−6.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:23PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 27, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:11UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:29PITT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:38PITT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:23UVA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:32UVA Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
40.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
40.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
40.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice Ffrench, broken up by Mandy AlonsoSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
40.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 6:1359% → 57%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+19
41.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 19 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
41.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
41.0%
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Chatman, T (Jackson, D), PENALTY UP pass interference (Jackson, D) 6 yards to the UP40, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
41.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 14 yds to the Pitt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
41.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+8
41.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 8 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
41.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Pitt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
41.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
41.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 3 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-10
41.0%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Keyshon Camp and Elias Reynolds for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+39
42.6%
Brian Delaney 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to V'Lique Carter for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
42.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
41.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+7
41.8%
TEAM punt blocked by Noah Taylor blocked by Noah Taylor Hasise Dubois return for 7 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:3159% → 61%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
41.4%
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Reed, J, PENALTY UP pass interference (Jackson, D) 15 yards to the UP4, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
41.4%
PK Kier run for 2 yds to the Pitt 2Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
41.4%
Bryce Perkins run for no gain to the Pitt 2Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Chris Sharp for 2 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
39.9%
A.J. Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
39.8%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 24Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
39.5%
Pickett, K pass incomplete to Mathews, A (Zandier, Z), PENALTY VA pass interference (Zandier, Z) 15 yards to the UP39, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-11
40.2%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Jordan Mack and Eli Hanback for a loss of 11 yards to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 21
OWN 28
+16
39.8%
A.J. Davis run for 16 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
40.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
39.8%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
39.2%
Bryce Perkins run for no gain to the Virg 24Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+27
39.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 27 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
38.4%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Deslin Alexandre for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 14
OWN 47
-3
39.0%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 44Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 17
OWN 44
0
39.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 17
OWN 44
0
39.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Maurice Ffrench at the Pitt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:2637% → 46%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
37.3%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 15Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
37.3%
A.J. Davis run for 6 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+59
36.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 59 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
39.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for 6 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+12
39.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 12 yds to the Virg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
39.2%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the Virg 2Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.1%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:1057% → 61%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
42.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 22 Wayne Taulapapa fumbled, forced by Phil Campbell III, recovered by Virg Wayne TaulapapaSimilar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+33
42.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Chatman for 33 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
41.5%
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Reed, J, PENALTY UP P1 (Hamlin, D) 15 yards to the UP30, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
41.1%
PK Kier run for 7 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+4
40.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 4 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
40.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
41.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
41.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
39.0%
Brian Delaney 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
40.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
40.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 3 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
39.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete, broken up by De'Vante CrossSimilar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 46 yds , Chuck Davis returns for 12 yds to the Virg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
37.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Chris Sharp for 6 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+8
37.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
37.0%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Habakkuk Baldonado for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 49Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 14
OPP 49
0
37.7%
Bryce Perkins run for no gain to the Pitt 49Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 14
OPP 49
0
38.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell Chatman, broken up by Dane JacksonSimilar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
39.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 5:3439% → 56%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
38.9%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 8 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
40.2%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
39.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 8 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+16
41.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 16 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
41.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 7 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+5
41.7%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 5 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
42.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+11
42.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 11 yds to the Virg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
42.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
43.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to V'Lique CarterSimilar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+9
42.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 9 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
43.9%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (Gabe Houy) to the Virg 11Similar
Q2 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
43.9%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 4 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
41.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 4 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
55.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:0049% → 51%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
51.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 8 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+14
49.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 14 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:0648% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
52.3%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tanner Cowley, broken up by Damar HamlinSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+17
53.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 17 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
49.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell ChatmanSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
50.5%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell ChatmanSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+27
51.6%
Bryce Perkins run for 27 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
47.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 2 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
47.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
49.3%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
43.2%
Brian Delaney 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice Ffrench, broken up by Richard BurneySimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
45.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.7%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Matt Gahm return for 2 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 3:1361% → 73%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
39.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 7 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-5
39.2%
Perkins, B pass complete to Dubois, H for 3 yards to the UP19 (Reynolds, E), PENALTY VA face mask 5 yards to the UP27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+9
39.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 9 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
39.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+1
39.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd to the Pitt 13Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
26.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16MISSED FG
13 plays · 33 yds · 5:2030% → 26%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
30.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 5 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
31.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+10
30.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
50
+3
32.4%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 3 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+1
32.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for 1 yd to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+6
31.9%
Kenny Pickett run for 6 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
32.8%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 1 yd to the Virg 39Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+10
32.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 10 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
34.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
34.1%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-4
32.4%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Joey Blount for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+50
26.4%
Alex Kessman 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0575% → 75%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
25.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+2
24.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+4
24.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 4 yds Hasise Dubois fumbled, forced by Paris Ford, recovered by VirgSimilar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
24.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 43 yds , Maurice Ffrench returns for no gain to the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4926% → 23%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
25.7%
V'Lique Carter run for 8 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 2
OWN 25
-1
26.5%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
25.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to V'Lique CarterSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
23.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Chuck Davis at the Virg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
23.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 8 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
23.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
22.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 1 yd to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
22.4%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell Jana, broken up by Damarri MathisSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
22.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell Chatman, broken up by Damarri MathisSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
24.9%
Nash Griffin punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Maurice Ffrench at the Pitt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20INT
14 plays · 41 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
24.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the Pitt 11Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+6
24.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 6 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+4
23.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
24.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 4 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
25.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+6
23.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 6 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
25.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
25.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 8 yds to the Pitt 39 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+19
24.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 19 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
27.1%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 49Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+15
26.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Zane Zandier) to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
28.4%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Bryce Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 15
OPP 41
-8
27.1%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Joey Blount for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 49Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 23
OPP 49
+9
25.2%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Joey Blount return for 9 yds to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21MISSED FG
12 plays · 30 yds · 3:1786% → 90%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
14.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 7 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+5
13.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
13.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
13.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 8 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+5
13.4%
PK Kier run for 5 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
12.8%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+3
9.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 3 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+7
8.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 7 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
9.6%
Brian Delaney 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
7.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 4 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
8.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
7.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Tre Tipton, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
6.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Todd Sibley Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 3:0693% → 99%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
7.5%
PK Kier run for 6 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+6
7.5%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Pitt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
7.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-1
7.5%
PK Kier run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 10Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
1.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.0%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
1.2%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:38
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)
+14.1
TD · Q3 8:23
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q2 13:29
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com