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UVA

Virginia 38 at North Carolina 31

UNC
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:13: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 6 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +16.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:32: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 9 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +17.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:57: Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 50 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +17.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:30: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Grant Misch for 6 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +18.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:43: Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 42 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +21.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:34UVA 4th & 8 at UNC 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:16UNC 4th & 6 at UVA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:09UVA 4th & 3 at UNC 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 3 at UVA 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:18UVA 4th & 4 at UNC 4, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.7%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:17UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:25UNC 4th & 10 at UVA 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 19 at UNC 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−2.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    69.7%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:02UNC 4th & 4 at UVA 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−14.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:07UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 41, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:53UNC 4th & 7 at UVA 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    10.7%−3.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 2:46UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:17UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:06UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:13UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:25UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:32UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:57UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:30UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:43UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-12
52.5%
Sam Howell sacked by Jowon Briggs for a loss of 12 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 23
+7
52.5%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
52.5%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+8
52.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 43 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for 8 yds to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
52.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 6 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
52.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+10
52.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 10 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
52.5%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 11
50
+3
52.6%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
52.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
52.7%
Nash Griffin punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3FG
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:4053% → 54%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+57
53.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 57 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
53.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
53.7%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 4
OPP 17
-2
53.5%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 19Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
54.2%
Noah Ruggles 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 6:2346% → 50%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
54.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
54.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+9
54.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 9 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
53.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 7 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+12
53.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 12 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
53.5%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
53.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+2
53.6%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+5
53.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 5 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
53.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 10 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
53.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 17 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.2%
Bryce Perkins run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:4052% → 52%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
51.7%
Javonte Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
52.0%
Javonte Williams run for 10 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
52.9%
Javonte Williams run for 13 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
53.2%
Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+5
53.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 5 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
53.7%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+6
53.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 6 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
52.9%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 20
0
52.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6FG
9 plays · 76 yds · 4:1649% → 55%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
51.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 9 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
50.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
50.7%
PK Kier run for 5 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+12
50.0%
Perkins, B sideline pass incomplete to Dubois, H, PENALTY NC pass interference (Hollins, D) 12 yards to the NC48, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+40
49.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 40 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
49.1%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
49.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
49.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q2 9:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
44.6%
Brian Delaney 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0146% → 58%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.8%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
45.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 13 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
47.1%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
47.9%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
57.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 47 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
52.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-7
52.3%
Bryce Perkins sacked by D.J. Ford for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
54.2%
Nash Griffin punt for 34 yds, downed at the NCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:0757% → 69%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
57.2%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
57.8%
Dazz Newsome run for 4 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+2
57.1%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
58.1%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
58.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+11
57.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 11 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
58.3%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+34
68.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 34 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10TD
17 plays · 78 yds · 1:4735% → 52%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
65.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 7 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+11
64.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 11 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
64.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
64.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 11 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
62.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
63.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 5 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+8
62.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 8 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
62.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+10
62.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 10 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
62.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 13 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
62.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 7 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 3
OPP 6
0
64.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
48.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 6 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
56.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3548% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
52.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 10 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
37.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 65 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
40.3%
Michael Carter run for 13 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
41.5%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+14
41.3%
Michael Carter run for 14 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
43.9%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+1
42.4%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the Virg 48Similar
Q3 14:25
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
41.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q3 14:25
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
40.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:2761% → 83%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
38.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 12Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+2
39.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+34
39.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 34 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
36.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 12 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
35.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 8 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+5
34.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense (Jason Strowbridge) to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
34.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the NCaro 18 Wayne Taulapapa fumbled, forced by Tomari Fox, recovered by Virg Terrell JanaSimilar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+9
34.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tomari Fox) to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
17.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 9 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3522% → 41%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
22.2%
Williams, J rush up middle for 27 yards to the VA48 (Grant, N), PENALTY NC holding (Tucker, J) 10 yards to the NC15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+4
22.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 4 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
21.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome, broken up by Aaron FaumuiSimilar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+19
21.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 19 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
23.8%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+9
24.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
50
+50
41.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 50 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2766% → 88%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
33.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 20 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
31.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense (Allen Cater) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 5
50
+5
30.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
30.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+39
30.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 39 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
12.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Grant Misch for 6 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4718% → 41%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
17.8%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
18.7%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
18.5%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
18.7%
Javonte Williams run for 21 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
40.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 42 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:3769% → 69%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
31.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for 21 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
28.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
27.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 5 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+15
27.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 15 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
26.4%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the NCaro 30 Bryce Perkins fumbled, forced by Chazz Surratt, recovered by Virg Chris GlaserSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
26.2%
Bryce Perkins run for no gain to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-5
27.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 35
-6
27.7%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Tyrone Hopper and Jeremiah Gemmel for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OPP 41
0
31.1%
Nash Griffin punt for 35 yds, downed at the NCaro 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19DOWNS
15 plays · 88 yds · 0:0030% → 34%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
29.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 12 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
30.4%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+3
31.1%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+5
30.0%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
31.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
30.4%
Javonte Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+9
33.4%
Javonte Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
34.4%
Michael Carter run for 19 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
38.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Eli Hanback for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 15
OPP 38
-5
33.5%
Howell, S sideline pass complete to Corrales, B for 10 yards to the VA28, out-of-bounds (Cross, D), PENALTY NC ineligible downfield on pass (Tucker, J) 5 yards to the VA43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+31
33.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 31 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
38.7%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Virg 11Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+5
38.7%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
36.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q4 11:02
4TH & 4
OPP 6
0
33.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:5384% → 90%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
16.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd to the Virg 7Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+8
16.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+3
16.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Virg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
15.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 16 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
14.8%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Dominique Ross and Allen Cater for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+4
10.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+7
10.6%
Bryce Perkins run for 7 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+20
10.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 41 , Dazz Newsome returns for 20 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
13.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Chris MooreSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
12.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+13
12.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 13 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
15.4%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
15.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
15.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
13.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
-2
5.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:43
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 42 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+21.9
TD · Q3 2:30
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Grant Misch for 6 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
-18.3
TD · Q3 7:32
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 9 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
-17.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com