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UVA

Virginia 20 at Notre Dame 35

ND
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Ian Book run for 11 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:18: C'Bo Flemister run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +3.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:07: Brian Delaney 32 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +3.1 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 0:43: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 16 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +15.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:20: Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +13.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:28: Tony Jones Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q2 11:35UVA 4th & 1 at ND 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    22.5%−1.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:07UVA 4th & 4 at ND 14, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.2%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−4.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:37ND 4th & 6 at UVA 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:47ND 4th & 8 at UVA 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:30UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:45ND 4th & 3 at ND 36, up 4
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00ND 4th & 19 at ND 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−3.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:17UVA 4th & 10 at ND 40, up 3
    Close callPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    38.9%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:11ND 4th & 6 at ND 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:14UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:06UVA 4th & 1 at ND 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−2.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:01ND 4th & 6 at ND 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:50UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:28ND 4th & 13 at ND 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:28UVA 4th & 10 at ND 10, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:43ND 4th & 1 at ND 45, up 15
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00ND 4th & 2 at UVA 28, up 15
    Close callWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%−0.4
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:58UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:35ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:18ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:43UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:20ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:28ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:5722% → 25%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
77.7%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+18
77.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 18 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
77.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+43
77.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 43 yds to the NDame 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
76.8%
PK Kier run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 11Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
76.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 5 yds to the NDame 6Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
75.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:2076% → 76%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.6%
Ian Book sacked by Zane Zandier for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
75.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.8%
Book, Ian pass incomplete, PENALTY VIRGINIA offside (Gahm, Matt) 5 yards to the NOTREDAME30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
74.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 6 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
74.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
74.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 5 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-5
74.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Tommy Kraemer) to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+7
73.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for 7 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
74.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the NDame 47Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+8
73.8%
Ian Book run for 8 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
73.8%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+28
73.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 28 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
73.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 6 yds to the Virg 8Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+3
73.4%
Jahmir Smith run for 3 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
75.8%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:1525% → 28%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
74.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 17 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
74.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+21
73.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 21 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
73.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 4 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-12
72.3%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Julian Okwara for a loss of 12 yards to the NDame 46 Bryce Perkins fumbled, forced by Julian Okwara, recovered by NDame Julian Okwara , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:3575% → 79%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
75.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 2 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+15
75.3%
Book, Ian pass incomplete, PENALTY VIRGINIA pass interference (Hall, Bryce) 15 yards to the VIRGINIA37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
75.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 1 yd to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+12
75.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Charles Snowden) to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
75.5%
Ian Book pass complete to C'Bo Flemister for 13 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
78.9%
C'Bo Flemister run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5FG
17 plays · 61 yds · 7:0723% → 27%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.5%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
77.6%
Bryce Perkins run for 15 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
77.0%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
77.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell ChatmanSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+15
77.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 15 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
76.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 6 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+1
76.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
76.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 2 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+4
76.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
75.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 7 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-4
75.2%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Ovie Oghoufo and Jacob Lacey for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+10
76.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 10 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
75.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
75.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 6 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
76.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
73.1%
Brian Delaney 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6MISSED FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 3:0975% → 74%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
74.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Javon McKinleySimilar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
74.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 9 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
74.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
74.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Lawrence Keys III) to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 15
OWN 22
0
74.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+37
74.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 37 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
76.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for 4 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
75.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Cole KmetSimilar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+6
74.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 6 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
76.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
76.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
75.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tony Jones Jr.Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+47
74.2%
Jonathan Doerer 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0327% → 26%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
73.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 6 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-1
72.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 34 Wayne Taulapapa fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, recovered by Virg Tanner CowleySimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+4
73.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 1
OWN 38
-5
72.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Tanner Cowley) to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
74.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3374% → 74%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
74.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 7 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
75.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
74.0%
Ian Book run for no gain to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
73.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 0:5325% → 41%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
74.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 4 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+39
74.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 39 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-8
70.6%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Kurt Hinish and Khalid Kareem for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+10
75.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 10 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+15
73.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell Jana for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Troy Pride Jr.) to the NDame 16 for a 1ST down. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
58.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 16 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:3264% → 62%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-15
64.2%
Ian Book sacked by Noah Taylor for a loss of 15 yards to the NDame 10 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ian Book) to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+8
63.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for 8 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-2
62.8%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 16Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
62.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds, downed at the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:3541% → 40%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
50
+10
58.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 10 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
58.6%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Julian Okwara for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+4
59.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 4 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 13
OPP 43
-5
59.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Chris Glaser) to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 18
OPP 48
+8
60.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Chatman for 8 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
60.3%
Nash Griffin punt for 38 yds, downed at the NDame 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5960% → 57%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
60.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the NDame 3Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+3
59.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 3 yds to the NDame 6Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
57.6%
Ian Book run for no gain to the NDame 6Similar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 6
OWN 6
+8
56.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 40 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for 8 yds to the NDame 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:1544% → 45%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
56.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
56.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+48
55.2%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Jamir Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the ND 44, Bryce Perkins fumbled, recovered by ND Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa , return for 48 yds to the Virg 7.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:1065% → 79%
Q3 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
64.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the Virg 2Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
79.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Liam Eichenberg) to the Virg 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5726% → 25%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.6%
PK Kier run for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
73.5%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Khalid Kareem for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 21Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+4
74.9%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 35 yds , Chris Finke returns for 1 yd to the NDame 41 Chris Finke fumbled, recovered by Virg Joey BlountSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4231% → 30%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
69.4%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-2
69.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+8
69.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 8 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
70.4%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:5975% → 74%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
74.7%
Book, Ian pass incomplete to Claypool, Chase, PENALTY VIRGINIA holding (Grant, Nick) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
76.1%
Jahmir Smith run for 1 yd to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+4
76.7%
Jahmir Smith run for 4 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+4
76.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 4 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-5
75.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (Jay Bramblett) to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
73.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1225% → 12%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
75.1%
Joe Reed run for 3 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+8
74.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 8 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
88.2%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Julian Okwara for a loss of 9 yards Bryce Perkins fumbled, recovered by ND Adetokunbo Ogundeji , return for 23 yds for a TD. (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3911% → 10%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
89.0%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Khalid Kareem for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+7
89.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 7 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
89.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 2 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
89.9%
Nash Griffin punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1190% → 89%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
89.5%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
90.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to C'Bo FlemisterSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-7
89.7%
Ian Book sacked by Eli Hanback for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 18Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 13
OWN 18
+9
89.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for 9 yds to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:5012% → 11%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
87.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
88.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
88.9%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Alohi Gilman return for no gain to the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:4991% → 98%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
90.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+28
90.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 28 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
91.4%
Ian Book run for 3 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+7
92.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 7 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
97.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 3:523% → 4%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Chatman for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
96.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell ChatmanSimilar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
96.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
96.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
50
+4
96.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 4 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+11
96.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 11 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
96.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 10 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
96.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 15 yds to the NDame 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
96.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly Jr.Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
96.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q4 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
97.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the NDame 10Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
96.2%
Brian Delaney 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:4597% → 98%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Liam Eichenberg) to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+16
97.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 16 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-10
97.6%
Jones Jr., Tony rush for no gain to the NOTREDAME40, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Patterson, Jarrett) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 16
OWN 24
-6
97.3%
Ian Book sacked by Jordan Mack for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 24 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ian Book) to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 22
OWN 24
+21
97.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 21 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
97.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds, downed at the Virg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:392% → 3%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
97.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 11 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
97.5%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
97.5%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Kyle Hamilton return for no gain to the NDame 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:3998% → 99%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
98.1%
Michael Young run for 2 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+2
98.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+16
98.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 16 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
98.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for no gain to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
98.7%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+4
98.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+11
98.6%
Ian Book run for 11 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:43
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 16 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)
-15
TD · Q3 9:20
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q4 10:28
Tony Jones Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com