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LIB

Liberty 27 at Virginia 55

UVA
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Nash Griffin punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior+28.9Home team on offense+0.8Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:25: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Noah Frith for 32 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +3.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:59: Lamont Atkins run for 3 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +4.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:40: Mike Hollins run for 4 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +5.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:21: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 7 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +6.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:29: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +3.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LIB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00LIB 4th & 20 at LIB 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:49LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:39UVA 4th & 5 at LIB 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UVA 4th & 15 at UVA 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:13UVA 4th & 2 at LIB 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−1.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    75.7%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:59LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:52LIB 4th & 10 at UVA 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00UVA 4th & 9 at LIB 31, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:21LIB 4th & 11 at LIB 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:58UVA 4th & 12 at LIB 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:40LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−1.9
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:33LIB 4th & 10 at UVA 19, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:07UVA 4th & 8 at LIB 11, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:07LIB 4th & 17 at UVA 40, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:58LIB 4th & 10 at UVA 43, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:49UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:39LIB Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:25LIB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:59UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:40UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:21UVA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:41UVA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:29LIB Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:26UVA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:58UVA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
86.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
86.4%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Aaron Faumui for a loss of 10 yards to the Liber 15Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
86.4%
Aidan Alves punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:2786% → 86%
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
86.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 8 yds to the Liber 39Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+5
86.2%
Lamont Atkins run for 5 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
86.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 10 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
86.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
86.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 7 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+9
86.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Lamont Atkins for 9 yds to the Liber 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.2%
PK Kier run for no gain to the Liber 8Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
86.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 8 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.9%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-15
85.9%
Calvert,S. pass incomplete to Foutz,Z. (Faumui, A), PENALTY LIBERTY personal foul (Mack,J.) 15 yards to the LIBERTY12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 23
OWN 12
0
85.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+14
86.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 14 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+30
86.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 45 yds LIBERTY Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Virg 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 5:5086% → 86%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
86.1%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+1
86.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+10
86.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Chatman for 10 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
86.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 18 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-7
86.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Liber 22 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (PK Kier) to the Liber 32Similar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 17
OPP 32
+7
86.1%
Lamont Atkins run for 7 yds to the Liber 25Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
86.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 5 yds to the Liber 20Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+7
86.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 7 yds to the Liber 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
86.2%
PK Kier run for 6 yds to the Liber 7Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-1
86.2%
Mike Hollins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 8Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
86.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
85.7%
Brian Delaney 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0015% → 18%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.5%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 24Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
85.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+11
85.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 11 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
85.3%
Peytton Pickett run for 3 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+56
85.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Peytton Pickett for 56 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
84.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q1 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
81.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:3983% → 82%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
82.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (Bryce Perkins) to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
82.6%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
82.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 16Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+7
82.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 7 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-3
81.7%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Rion Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
81.5%
Nash Griffin punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:0918% → 23%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
82.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 3 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
81.6%
DJ Stubbs pass incomplete to Joshua MackSimilar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+12
82.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
50
+25
81.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 25 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-7
79.8%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Jordan Mack and Eli Hanback for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 32Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 17
OPP 32
0
80.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 17
OPP 32
+32
77.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Noah Frith for 32 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:1279% → 77%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
78.6%
PK Kier run for 3 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
79.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+8
78.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
50
0
79.4%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
50
+7
79.2%
PK Kier run for 7 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+1
79.2%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the Liber 42Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
76.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IV, broken up by Elijah BentonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
74.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 2
50
+1
74.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+11
74.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 11 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+52
74.1%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted De'Vante Cross return for 52 yds to the Liber 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:4176% → 82%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
76.4%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Javon Scruggs and Brandon Tillmon for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 44Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+8
75.4%
Billy Kemp IV run for 8 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+21
76.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 21 yds to the Liber 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
77.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 12 yds to the Liber 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
81.6%
Lamont Atkins run for 3 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 6 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
78.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Charles SnowdenSimilar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
79.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to CJ YarbroughSimilar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+28
80.3%
Aidan Alves punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the VIRGINIA 36 LIBERTY Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the Virg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:3280% → 87%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+22
80.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 22 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe Reed, broken up by Isaac SteeleSimilar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+33
81.0%
Lamont Atkins run for 33 yds to the Liber 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.7%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13MISSED FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:4816% → 14%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
84.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
84.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
84.3%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
84.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 12 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
83.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
84.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Heskin SmithSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
84.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Heskin SmithSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
85.6%
Alex Probert 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.9%
Lamont Atkins run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
86.1%
Lamont Atkins run for 3 yds to the Virg 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:3987% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
86.6%
PK Kier run for 2 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+25
86.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 25 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
86.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Jamari PeacockSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
86.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 4 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-3
86.4%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Solomon Ajayi and Tre'Shaun Clark for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+24
85.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Charles Snowden for 24 yds to the Liber 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
86.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q3 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 7 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
92.4%
Calvert,S. pass incomplete to Gandy-Golden,A., PENALTY VA holding (Smith, H) 10 yards to the LIBERTY35, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Frankie HicksonSimilar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
92.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 11 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
91.8%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 45Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
92.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
92.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Jerome JacksonSimilar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 11
OWN 45
+15
92.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the VIRGINIA 25 LIBERTY Penalty, kick catching interference (Rion Davis) to the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
94.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+13
94.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for 13 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hayden MitchellSimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-2
94.2%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 44Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
93.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
93.3%
Nash Griffin punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
93.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to CJ YarbroughSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
93.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by De'Vante CrossSimilar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
93.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian KingSimilar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 10
OWN 1
0
93.5%
Aidan Alves punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19TD
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:3695% → 98%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
94.9%
Lamont Atkins run for 2 yds to the Liber 13Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+3
94.9%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+5
94.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the Liber 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
94.9%
Lamont Atkins run for 1 yd to the Liber 4 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (2 Yards) to the Liber 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:122% → 6%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
97.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Noah Frith for 11 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
97.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 13 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+33
97.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 33 yds to the Virg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
97.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Virg 8Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
93.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 3:5895% → 99%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
95.3%
PK Kier run for 11 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
95.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 5 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
95.5%
PK Kier run for 8 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
95.7%
Mike Hollins run for 13 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
96.1%
Lamont Atkins run for 2 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+38
96.1%
PK Kier run for 38 yds to the Liber 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.0%
PK Kier run for 4 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 1:531% → 1%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
98.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
98.8%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+5
98.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 5 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+47
98.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 47 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
98.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian KingSimilar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
98.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Chris Barrett, broken up by Matt GahmSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+37
98.7%
Alex Probert 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:2699% → 100%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
99.3%
Mike Hollins run for 6 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+23
99.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the VIRGINIA 44 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (Emanuel Dabney) to the Liber 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
99.3%
Tavares Kelly Jr. run for 16 yds to the Liber 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
99.3%
Mike Hollins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 14Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+3
99.3%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the Liber 11Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
99.3%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly Jr.Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
99.5%
Brian Delaney 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24INT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
98.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 11 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
98.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+19
99.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 19 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
98.7%
Stephen Calvert run for 1 yd to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-2
98.8%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 11
OPP 34
-6
98.9%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Aaron Faumui and Nick Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 17
OPP 40
+35
99.0%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted De'Vante Cross return for 35 yds to the Virg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.6%
PK Kier run for 3 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
99.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 5 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+3
99.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the Liber 44Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
99.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IV, broken up by Isaac SteeleSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+44
99.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 44 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26Uncategorized
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
99.9%
Brown,L. pass incomplete to Frith,N., PENALTY VA personal foul (Alonso, M) 15 yards to the VA43, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Landon Brown pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Landon Brown pass incomplete to Mason YostSimilar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 10
OPP 43
+22
99.9%
Landon Brown pass complete to Brody Brumm for 22 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Landon Brown pass incomplete to Brody BrummSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Landon Brown pass incomplete to Brody BrummSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+8
99.9%
Landon Brown pass complete to Mason Yost for 8 yds to the Virg 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:21
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 7 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q2 2:40
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q2 4:59
Lamont Atkins run for 3 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com