Virginia

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2579th
  Defense+0.0850th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.6%74th
  Defense39.2%63rd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1112th
  Defense+1.1773rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2383rd
  Defense+0.1134th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3268th
  Defense+0.1649th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense54.8%88th
  Defense47.6%40th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense26.7%22nd
  Defense22.6%88th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.5292nd
  Defense3.0731st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.9%80th
  Defense16.4%31st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.2%70th
  Defense17.3%70th

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Virginia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NCSU
2. W
   NORF
3. L
   WVU
4. W
   DEL
5. L
   FSU
6. W
   SYR

Bars above the line: better than expected for Virginia.

Players, 2026

1. Beau PribulaQB141 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 63rd of 192 QBs
   0.29WAR0.03 to 0.51
2. Jekail MiddlebrookRB67 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 37th of 320 RBs
   0.14WAR0.08 to 0.19
3. Xavier BrownRB29 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 184th of 320 RBs
   0.05WAR0.04 to 0.07
4. Da'Shawn MartinWR16 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 175th of 364 WRs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.07
5. Rico Flores Jr.WR17 plays · +0.095 pts/play · 225th of 364 WRs
   0.03WAR0.01 to 0.05
6. Kameron CourtneyWR16 plays · +0.072 pts/play · 262nd of 364 WRs
   0.02WAR0.00 to 0.04
7. Dakota TwittyTE7 plays · +0.103 pts/play · 89th of 164 TEs
   0.01WAR0.01 to 0.02
8. John RogersTE6 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 103rd of 164 TEs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.02

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Virginia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  70070053rd of 138Roster talent: 700, 53rd of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17717773rd of 138Recruiting: 177, 73rd of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  10%10%119th of 136Returning production: 10%, 119th of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +8.5+8.544th of 138SP+ rating so far: +8.5, 44th of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Virginia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.03 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs SYRQ4 1:03 4th & 4 at UVA 44, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
2. vs WVUQ3 9:06 4th & 10 at WVU 34, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.5 pts
3. vs SYRQ2 0:01 4th & 5 at UVA 45, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.4 pts
4. at FSUQ1 0:31 4th & 4 at UVA 47, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
5. at FSUQ4 8:56 4th & 26 at FSU 44, down 24Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.2 pts
6. vs NCSUQ2 1:03 4th & 3 at UVA 38, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
7. vs WVUQ2 10:18 4th & 2 at UVA 33, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
8. vs DELQ3 3:20 4th & 15 at DEL 34, up 32Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

92nd of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Virginia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NCSU
2. W

   NORF
3. L

   WVU
4. W

   DEL
5. L

   FSU
6. W

   SYR

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Virginia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.19
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.02
• Timeouts+0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.18

Game by game

• NCSUW 34-8 vs NCSU53% → 100%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +47: Scoreboard +42, Timeouts +2
• NORFW 59-3 vs NORF99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +1
• WVUL 27-38 vs WVU73% → 2%Before kickoff +23 · On the field −71: Scoreboard −60, Clock −4
• DELW 42-3 vs DEL85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +17
• FSUL 7-38 at FSU46% → 0%Before kickoff −4 · On the field −46: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts −1
• SYRW 28-25 vs SYR78% → 96%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +23, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Virginia's side.

Closest call

UVA 31-30 WAKE (2024) - Virginia dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.