Pregame projection
Points model v7 · market line as of Oct 13, 9:17 AM ET, shown for referenceProjected score
SMU30
UVA23
SMU by 7 · market SMU by 9.25
Win chance
SMU69%
UVA 31%SMU 69%
Projected total
54pts
Market total 51.75
Explore the range of outcomes
50%
chance SMU wins by 7 or more
50% SMU wins by 6 or fewer, or loses
← UVA winsSMU wins →
-28-140+14+28+42
- 50% of outcomes
- UVA by 2 to SMU by 17
- 80% of outcomes
- UVA by 14 to SMU by 27
- 90% of outcomes
- UVA by 22 to SMU by 34
- Median
- SMU by 6
Not betting advice. This is just a model. These numbers are statistical estimates for entertainment and information only - not a prediction of what will happen and not a recommendation to bet on this or any game. The model is built without betting lines, and no model is reliably more accurate than the betting market. Scores and ranges cover regulation only (no overtime), and even the widest range here misses about 1 game in 10. If you choose to gamble, do so legally and responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
What's at stake
Playoff odds, and how this result moves them.
| The teams playing | Now | With a winWith a win | With a lossWith a loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 1% | 3% | <1% |
| SMU | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Also riding on it | Now | UVA wins (31%)If Virginia wins (31%) | SMU wins (69%)If SMU wins (69%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest | 30% | 29% | 31% |
2026 week 6 odds, simulated every Tuesday. All playoff odds