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2026 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026 · Scott Stadium
Pregame projection
Points model v7
Projected score
UVA28
UNC19
UVA by 9
Win chance
UVA68%
UNC 32%UVA 68%
Projected total
47pts
Combined points
Explore the range of outcomes
46%
chance Virginia wins by 7 or more
54% Virginia wins by 6 or fewer, or loses
← UNC winsUVA wins →
-28-140+14+28+42
50% of outcomes
UNC by 2 to UVA by 18
80% of outcomes
UNC by 11 to UVA by 28
90% of outcomes
UNC by 19 to UVA by 35
Median
UVA by 5
Not betting advice. This is just a model. These numbers are statistical estimates for entertainment and information only - not a prediction of what will happen and not a recommendation to bet on this or any game. The model is built without betting lines, and no model is reliably more accurate than the betting market. Scores and ranges cover regulation only (no overtime), and even the widest range here misses about 1 game in 10. If you choose to gamble, do so legally and responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com