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NCSU

NC State 8 at Virginia 34

UVA
2026 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2026 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:23 · (10:29) #38 D.Sparks punt 29 yards to the NCS40, out of bounds at NCS40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense+23.8Score differential+16.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Garbage-time factor+8.1Blowout margin−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:37: (02:39) Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:37, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff) — UVA win probability +2.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:26: Xavier Brown 45 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Will Bettridge Kick) — UVA win probability +10.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:35: (13:41) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete deep right to #18 D.Martin caught at NCS06, for 47 yards to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:35, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff) — UVA win probability +8.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:59: (05:00) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:59 #20 D.Desinor pass attempt Successful — NCSU win probability +10.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:44: (07:45) No Huddle #25 X.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:44 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff) — UVA win probability +2.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:52NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:42UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:58NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:11UVA 4th & 8 at NCSU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:44NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:37NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:44UVA 4th & 16 at UVA 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−3.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:03UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 38, up 17
    Close callPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:32NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−1.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:39NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:23UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 31, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:02UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 47, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.1%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:47UVA 4th & 1 at NCSU 43, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    91.3%−2.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:41UVA 4th & 4 at NCSU 35, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:17UVA 4th & 1 at NCSU 3, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−3.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:37NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 32, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:26UVA 4th & 2 at NCSU 25, up 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:15NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 31, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:37UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 17, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 2:37UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:26UVA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:35UVA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:59NCSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:44UVA Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5447% → 47%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
53.1%
(14:52) Shotgun #1 J.Scott rush middle for 0 yards to the NCS34 (#11 M.Marcellus; #14 F.Camac)Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
53.1%
(14:23) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #0 V.Snow caught at NCS39, for 5 yards to the NCS39 (#30 E.Minter)Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-2
53.2%
(13:47) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey sacked for loss of 2 yards to the NCS37 (#26 C.Hardy)Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
53.4%
(12:57) #96 J.Waller punt 32 yards to the UVA31 fair catch by #13 J.Abdullah at UVA31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0153% → 54%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
53.4%
(12:50) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UVA42 (#2 R.Royal, III; #7 B.Nelson II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
53.7%
(12:08) Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush right for 1 yard loss to the UVA41 (#5 H.Dyson III; #2 R.Royal, III)Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+5
53.7%
(11:26) Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UVA46 (#55 K.Evans; #0 P.Aguirre)Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
53.8%
(10:49) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Gibson thrown to UVA47 broken up by #2 R.Royal, IIISimilar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
53.6%
(10:46) #38 D.Sparks punt 43 yards to the NCS11 fair catch by #0 V.Snow at NCS11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3446% → 46%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
53.6%
(10:39) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #8 K.Jackson caught at NCS16, for 5 yards to the NCS16 (#10 J.Henderson)Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+8
53.6%
(10:10) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NCS15 (#91 J.Hammond) PENALTY NCS Holding (#2 J.Trader) 8 yards from NCS16 to NCS08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 13
OWN 8
0
53.7%
(09:49) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short left to #0 V.Snow thrown to NCS24Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 13
OWN 8
+9
54.0%
(09:43) Shotgun #1 J.Scott rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NCS17 (#33 N.Anyanwu; #16 M.Fobbs-White)Similar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
54.2%
(09:04) #96 J.Waller punt 43 yards to the UVA40 fair catch by #13 J.Abdullah at UVA40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:3954% → 55%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
54.1%
(08:56) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush right for 18 yards gain to the NCS42 (#7 B.Nelson II), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
54.5%
(08:23) Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush left for 1 yard gain to the NCS41 (#99 A.Prim)Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+10
54.6%
(07:50) Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush right for 10 yards gain to the NCS31 (#4 K.Mack; #22 J.Vick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
54.9%
(07:10) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush right for 3 yards gain to the NCS28 (#5 H.Dyson III; #55 K.Evans)Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
55.1%
(06:31) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 0 yards to the NCS28 (#0 P.Aguirre)Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-1
55.7%
(05:49) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush left for 1 yard loss to the NCS29 (#53 J.Warren, Jr.)Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+47
55.2%
(05:14) #41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff), clock 05:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2245% → 45%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.3%
(05:09) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #5 D.Dozier caught at NCS26, for 2 yards to the NCS27 (#10 J.Henderson)Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
55.3%
(04:47) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass intercepted by #6 B.Hillman at NCS32 broken up by #14 F.Camac, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:5757% → 60%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
56.7%
(04:42) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush right for 22 yards gain to the NCS10 (#16 P.Surratt; #88 I.Shirley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
57.0%
(03:58) Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NCS07 (#0 P.Aguirre; #42 K.Carter)Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
57.2%
(03:19) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush right for 6 yards gain to the NCS01 (#0 P.Aguirre; #15 A.Richardson)Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.7%
(02:39) Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:37, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4641% → 39%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.5%
(02:34) Shotgun #1 J.Scott rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NCS31 (#13 M.Brown; #8 C.Ellis)Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
59.3%
(02:09) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #2 J.Trader caught at NCS31, for 5 yards to the NCS36 (#8 C.Ellis; #13 M.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
59.5%
(01:41) Shotgun #1 J.Scott rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NCS38 (#55 A.Britton; #13 M.Brown)Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
59.6%
(01:03) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete deep right to #6 A.Locklear thrown to UVA27 broken up by #2 D.PlattSimilar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
60.0%
(00:54) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short left to #5 D.Dozier thrown to UVA46 broken up by #20 O.AgardSimilar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
61.0%
(00:49) #96 J.Waller punt 39 yards to the UVA23 fair catch by #13 J.Abdullah at UVA23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 4:1667% → 82%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
66.7%
(00:42) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UVA27 (#90 J.Victor; #15 A.Richardson)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
67.3%
(14:59) Shotgun #3 N.Vaughn rush left for 5 yards gain to the UVA32 (#2 R.Royal, III)Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
67.7%
(14:17) Shotgun #3 N.Vaughn rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UVA37 (#4 K.Mack; #10 T.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
69.1%
(13:37) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UVA45 (#4 K.Mack)Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
70.2%
(12:50) Shotgun #3 N.Vaughn rush left for 3 yards gain to the UVA48 (#88 I.Shirley; #0 P.Aguirre), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
71.1%
(12:08) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short middle to #88 C.Cox caught at NCS47, for 7 yards to the NCS45 (#0 P.Aguirre; #10 T.White)Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+45
81.8%
Xavier Brown 45 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Will Bettridge Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:3926% → 25%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
73.9%
(11:20) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NCS30 (#32 L.Danley)Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
73.6%
(10:55) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short middle to #19 P.Douglas thrown to NCS35 broken up by #88 K.ChouteSimilar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+4
73.9%
(10:52) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #19 P.Douglas caught at NCS31, for 4 yards to the NCS34 (#1 M.Williams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
74.2%
(10:24) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NCS37 (#11 M.Marcellus; #14 F.Camac)Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
74.4%
(09:48) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete deep right to #13 T.Warren thrown to UVA37Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
74.7%
(09:45) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short middle to #8 K.Jackson thrown to UVA48Similar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
75.1%
(09:43) #96 J.Waller punt 52 yards to the UVA11 fair catch by #13 J.Abdullah at UVA11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:4286% → 87%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
86.0%
(09:35) Shotgun #2 P.Lewis rush left for 0 yards to the UVA11 (#0 P.Aguirre; #22 J.Vick)Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+22
85.2%
(08:55) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush right for 22 yards gain to the UVA33 (#3 T.Teasdell; #99 A.Prim), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
85.8%
(08:05) Shotgun #2 P.Lewis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UVA35 (#0 P.Aguirre; #3 T.Teasdell)Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
86.2%
(07:22) Shotgun #2 P.Lewis rush right for 2 yards gain to the UVA37 (#15 A.Richardson; #42 K.Carter)Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-5
86.8%
(06:42) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UVA27 (#5 H.Dyson III, #35 L.Hodge)Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 16
OWN 27
+29
86.9%
(05:57) #38 D.Sparks punt 52 yards to the NCS21 #0 V.Snow return 29 yards to the NCS50 (#13 M.Brown; #32 L.Danley)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:0724% → 23%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
50
+15
76.2%
(05:42) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete deep right to #6 A.Locklear thrown to UVA25 PENALTY UVA Pass Interference (#6 B.Hillman) 15 yards from NCS50 to UVA35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
75.4%
(05:35) Shotgun #1 J.Scott rush left for 0 yards to the UVA35 (#11 M.Marcellus; #17 J.Ross) PENALTY NCS False Start 5 yards from UVA35 to UVA40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+3
77.3%
(05:18) Shotgun #1 J.Scott rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UVA37 (#14 F.Camac; #44 D.Henry-Young)Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+14
77.7%
(04:48) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #2 J.Trader caught at UVA23, for 14 yards to the UVA23, out of bounds at UVA23, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
76.3%
(04:15) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UVA19 (#11 M.Marcellus; #33 N.Anyanwu)Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+12
76.7%
(03:41) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush right for 12 yards gain to the UVA07 fumbled by #11 C.Bailey at UVA07 forced by #6 B.Hillman recovered by UVA #32 L.Danley at UVA07, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:2489% → 84%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
89.4%
(03:32) Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush left for 9 yards gain to the UVA16 (#0 P.Aguirre)Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+15
89.0%
(02:54) Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush left for 15 yards gain to the UVA31 (#4 K.Mack; #2 R.Royal, III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
89.0%
(02:18) Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UVA37 (#0 P.Aguirre; #15 A.Richardson)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
84.4%
(01:58) Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush right for 1 yard gain to the UVA38 (#42 K.Carter; #92 C.Bond)Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
84.6%
(01:17) Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush left for 0 yards to the UVA38 (#42 K.Carter; #0 P.Aguirre)Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+3
84.2%
(01:12) #38 D.Sparks punt 40 yards to the NCS22 #0 V.Snow return 3 yards to the NCS25 (#32 L.Danley)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2719% → 18%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.1%
(01:01) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #2 J.Trader thrown to NCS37 broken up by #10 J.HendersonSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.6%
(00:56) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush right for 4 yards gain to the NCS29 (#1 M.Williams), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
81.5%
(00:45) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush right for 1 yard gain to the NCS30 (#36 J.Townsend), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
82.0%
(00:37) #96 J.Waller punt 57 yards to the UVA13 fair catch by #13 J.Abdullah at UVA13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0284% → 84%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
84.3%
(00:28) Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush left for 15 yards gain to the UVA28 (#7 B.Nelson II), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
84.0%
(00:23) Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush left for 3 yards gain to the UVA31 (#0 P.Aguirre)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1083% → 92%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
82.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete deep left to #8 T.Coleman caught at UVA45, for 20 yards to the UVA45 (#2 R.Royal, III; #7 B.Nelson II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
83.6%
(14:27) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #5 K.Courtney caught at UVA49, for 8 yards to the NCS47 (#4 K.Mack)Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+47
91.8%
(13:41) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete deep right to #18 D.Martin caught at NCS06, for 47 yards to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:35, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4610% → 8%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.0%
(13:33) Shotgun #1 J.Scott rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NCS27 (#10 J.Henderson; #16 M.Fobbs-White)Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
91.5%
(12:59) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #86 H.Provience thrown to NCS40 QB hurried by #14 F.Camac and #91 J.HammondSimilar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
91.8%
(12:50) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #2 J.Trader thrown to NCS46Similar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
91.9%
(12:45) #96 J.Waller punt 46 yards to the UVA27 fair catch by #13 J.Abdullah at UVA27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:0893% → 94%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
92.8%
(12:35) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UVA33 (#3 T.Teasdell)Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 4
OWN 33
0
93.3%
(12:02) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 0 yards to the UVA33 (#56 O.Abraham; #0 P.Aguirre)Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+3
93.5%
(11:26) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UVA36 (#42 K.Carter; #88 I.Shirley)Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+5
93.5%
PENALTY UVA Delay Of Game 5 yards from UVA36 to UVA31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
93.5%
(10:29) #38 D.Sparks punt 29 yards to the NCS40, out of bounds at NCS40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 5:147% → 15%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
93.4%
(10:21) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UVA47 (#30 E.Minter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
93.7%
(09:41) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #5 D.Dozier caught at UVA43, for 12 yards to the UVA35 (#20 O.Agard; #6 B.Hillman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
93.3%
(09:10) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #19 P.Douglas caught at UVA33, for 2 yards to the UVA33 (#6 B.Hillman; #11 M.Marcellus)Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+7
93.6%
(08:33) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short middle to #19 P.Douglas caught at UVA28, for 7 yards to the UVA26 (#11 M.Marcellus)Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+4
94.0%
(07:50) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UVA22 (#11 M.Marcellus), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
93.7%
(07:18) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete deep right to #82 C.Robinson thrown to UVA00 PENALTY UVA Personal Foul (#16 M.Fobbs-White) 11 yard from UVA22 to UVA11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
93.7%
(07:13) Shotgun #1 J.Scott rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UVA13 (#99 D.Baxter; #11 M.Marcellus)Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 12
OPP 13
-9
94.5%
(06:31) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UVA22 (#23 J.Jones)Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 21
OPP 22
+21
95.4%
(05:43) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #4 V.Ploog caught at UVA05, for 21 yards to the UVA01 (#6 B.Hillman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.2%
(05:00) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:59 #20 D.Desinor pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19TD
26 plays · 75 yds · 12:0793% → 100%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.6%
(04:58) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UVA34 (#4 K.Mack; #99 A.Prim)Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
92.9%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UVA38 (#13 J.Adedire), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
93.2%
(04:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short left to #0 X.Brown caught at UVA41, for 13 yards to the NCS49 (#6 A.Brown Jr.) PENALTY UVA Personal Foul (#8 T.Coleman) 15 yards from NCS49 to UVA36Similar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 12
OWN 36
+4
93.4%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UVA40 (#13 J.Adedire; #55 K.Evans)Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
93.7%
(02:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UVA44 (#5 H.Dyson III)Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
93.6%
(02:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush right for 3 yards gain to the UVA47 (#4 K.Mack; #6 A.Brown Jr.)Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
93.4%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA48 (#29 B.Barnhardt; #99 A.Prim), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
94.5%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush left for 3 yards gain to the NCS49 (#29 B.Barnhardt; #55 K.Evans)Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
94.6%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush left for 6 yards gain to the NCS43 (#90 J.Victor)Similar
Q3 0:06
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
94.8%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 0 yards to the NCS43 (#58 E.Satchell)Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
94.4%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NCS41 (#0 P.Aguirre; #88 I.Shirley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
95.2%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass incomplete deep right to #9 D.Twitty thrown to NCS15Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
95.1%
PENALTY UVA False Start (#88 C.Cox) 5 yards from NCS41 to NCS46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+8
95.3%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NCS38 (#29 B.Barnhardt; #5 H.Dyson III)Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+3
95.6%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #5 K.Courtney caught at NCS35, for 3 yards to the NCS35 (#6 A.Brown Jr.)Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+11
95.7%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #8 T.Coleman caught at NCS24, for 11 yards to the NCS24 (#7 B.Nelson II), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NCS Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
96.4%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #5 K.Courtney caught at NCS28, for 1 yard to the NCS23 (#29 B.Barnhardt)Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+8
96.5%
(11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NCS15 (#92 C.Bond; #35 L.Hodge)Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
96.5%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NCS12 (#90 J.Victor; #0 P.Aguirre), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
96.7%
(10:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NCS06 (#2 R.Royal, III; #3 T.Teasdell)Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+2
96.9%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush left for 2 yards gain to the NCS04 (#0 P.Aguirre; #90 J.Victor)Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
96.9%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush left for 1 yard gain to the NCS03 (#0 P.Aguirre; #58 E.Satchell)Similar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
96.8%
(08:22) No Huddle #25 X.Davis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NCS01 (#35 L.Hodge), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
(07:45) No Huddle #25 X.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:44 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:581% → 1%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.2%
(07:42) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short middle to #86 H.Provience caught at NCS30, for 6 yards to the NCS31 (#8 C.Ellis)Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.1%
(07:25) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short left to #13 T.Warren thrown to NCS35 broken up by #10 J.HendersonSimilar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.3%
(07:23) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush right for 1 yard gain to the NCS32 (#20 O.Agard)Similar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
99.3%
(06:42) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #8 K.Jackson caught at NCS32, for 1 yard to the NCS33 (#32 L.Danley), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.8%
(06:36) #3 N.Vaughn rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NCS28 (#0 P.Aguirre)Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
99.8%
(05:54) #3 N.Vaughn rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NCS26 (#92 C.Bond; #10 T.White)Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+1
99.8%
(05:13) #3 N.Vaughn rush left for 1 yard gain to the NCS25 (#2 R.Royal, III; #90 J.Victor)Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
99.9%
(04:29) #41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff), clock 04:26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
(04:25) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NCS29 (#32 L.Danley; #88 K.Choute)Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.9%
(03:44) Shotgun #20 D.Desinor rush left for 2 yards gain to the NCS31 (#13 M.Brown; #16 M.Fobbs-White)Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
(03:06) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 0 yards to the NCS31 (#92 J.Allen; #51 S.John)Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
(02:21) #96 J.Waller punt 58 yards to the UVA11 #13 J.Abdullah return 0 yards to the UVA11 (#13 J.Adedire)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:29100% → 100%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
100.0%
(02:14) #2 P.Lewis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA12 (#3 T.Teasdell; #47 A.Farrow)Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
99.9%
(01:58) #2 P.Lewis rush middle for 0 yards to the UVA12 (#47 A.Farrow; #55 K.Evans)Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+5
99.9%
(01:50) #2 P.Lewis rush left for 5 yards gain to the UVA17 (#22 J.Vick; #29 B.Barnhardt)Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
99.9%
(01:46) #38 D.Sparks punt 63 yards to the NCS20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
100.0%
(01:35) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson pass incomplete short right to #25 D.Johnson thrown to NCS20 broken up by #99 D.BaxterSimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
100.0%
(01:28) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NCS27 (#31 P.Campbell; #13 M.Brown)Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
100.0%
(00:57) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NCS32 (#88 K.Choute; #93 B.Koudelka), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
100.0%
(00:35) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson pass complete short right to #20 D.Desinor caught at NCS27, for 1 yard loss to the NCS31 (#17 J.Ross)Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+4
100.0%
(00:29) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson pass complete short right to #4 V.Ploog caught at NCS30, for 4 yards to the NCS35 (#45 J.Rowe)Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+5
100.0%
(00:22) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson pass complete short middle to #20 D.Desinor caught at NCS40, for 5 yards to the NCS40 (#18 J.McNair; #13 M.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:26
Xavier Brown 45 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Will Bettridge Kick)
+10.6
TD · Q3 4:59
(05:00) Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:59 #20 D.Desinor pass attempt Successful
-10.1
TD · Q3 13:35
(13:41) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete deep right to #18 D.Martin caught at NCS06, for 47 yards to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:35, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff)
+8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com