2026 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026 · Scott Stadium
Pregame projection
Points model v7Projected score
UVA31
CAL20
UVA by 11
Win chance
UVA72%
CAL 28%UVA 72%
Projected total
52pts
Combined points
Explore the range of outcomes
56%
chance Virginia wins by 7 or more
44% Virginia wins by 6 or fewer, or loses
← CAL winsUVA wins →
-21-7+7+21+35
- 50% of outcomes
- CAL by 1 to UVA by 21
- 80% of outcomes
- CAL by 10 to UVA by 33
- 90% of outcomes
- CAL by 16 to UVA by 37
- Median
- UVA by 9
Not betting advice. This is just a model. These numbers are statistical estimates for entertainment and information only - not a prediction of what will happen and not a recommendation to bet on this or any game. The model is built without betting lines, and no model is reliably more accurate than the betting market. Scores and ranges cover regulation only (no overtime), and even the widest range here misses about 1 game in 10. If you choose to gamble, do so legally and responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.