Virginia

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1254th
  Defense+0.1444th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.0%63rd
  Defense40.6%70th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2443rd
  Defense+1.417th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2087th
  Defense−0.0380th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.0629th
  Defense+0.3022nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.2%67th
  Defense44.9%71st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.4%48th
  Defense32.3%52nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.4295th
  Defense2.6079th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense12.4%98th
  Defense19.7%47th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.1%81st
  Defense18.2%73rd

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Virginia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   DUKE
2. L
   CLEM
3. L
   NCSU
4. L
   WAKE
5. L
   MIA
6. W
   UNC
7. W
   LOU
8. W
   ACU
9. W
   BC
10. L
    VT

Bars above the line: better than expected for Virginia.

Players, 2020

1. Brennan ArmstrongQB283 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 39th of 212 QBs
   0.78WAR0.21 to 1.29
2. Wayne TaulapapaRB70 plays · +0.175 pts/play · 143rd of 338 RBs
   0.23WAR0.17 to 0.27
3. Shane SimpsonRB56 plays · +0.173 pts/play · 179th of 338 RBs
   0.18WAR0.15 to 0.21
4. Terrell JanaWR38 plays · +0.181 pts/play · 76th of 409 WRs
   0.13WAR0.09 to 0.17
5. Lindell StoneQB68 plays · +0.082 pts/play · 161st of 212 QBs
   0.10WAR−0.02 to 0.22
6. Billy Kemp IVWR70 plays · +0.056 pts/play · 194th of 409 WRs
   0.07WAR−0.01 to 0.14
7. Keytaon ThompsonWR34 plays · +0.115 pts/play · 194th of 409 WRs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.11
8. Nash GriffinP32 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 14th of 77 punters
   0.06WAR0.01 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Virginia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  58958963rd of 127Roster talent: 589, 63rd of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  18418452nd of 127Recruiting: 184, 52nd of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  27%27%118th of 127Returning production: 27%, 118th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +0.9+0.963rd of 127SP+ rating: +0.9, 63rd of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Virginia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.11 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs BCQ3 15:00 4th & 1 at UVA 47, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
2. vs LOUQ4 10:01 4th & 4 at LOU 5, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
3. vs DUKEQ4 6:41 4th & 1 at UVA 46, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
4. at VTQ2 12:22 4th & 1 at UVA 39, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
5. vs BCQ4 11:31 4th & 2 at BC 39, up 19Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. at VTQ2 2:31 4th & 4 at VT 47, down 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
7. at CLEMQ2 9:38 4th & 1 at CLEM 9, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs LOUQ3 7:49 4th & 3 at UVA 47, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

42nd of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Virginia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   DUKE
2. L

   CLEM
3. L

   NCSU
4. L

   WAKE
5. L

   MIA
6. W

   UNC
7. W

   LOU
8. W

   ACU
9. W

   BC
10. L

    VT

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Virginia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.14
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Clock−0.03
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.46

Game by game

• DUKEW 38-20 vs DUKE61% → 99%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts −1
• CLEML 23-41 at CLEM3% → 1%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −6
• NCSUL 21-38 vs NCSU65% → 1%Before kickoff +15 · On the field −64: Scoreboard −60, Clock −2
• WAKEL 23-40 at WAKE43% → 0%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −40, Timeouts −2
• MIAL 14-19 at MIA15% → 9%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −16, Possession & field position −1
• UNCW 44-41 vs UNC22% → 90%Before kickoff −28 · On the field +68: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +3
• LOUW 31-17 vs LOU58% → 99%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +1
• ACUW 55-15 vs ACU98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• BCW 43-32 vs BC65% → 98%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +2
• VTL 15-33 at VT40% → 1%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from Virginia's side.

Closest call

UVA 31-30 WAKE (2024) - Virginia dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.